AUD/USD Weekly Technical Forecast (Aug 30-Sep 03)

A very busy week expects Aussie traders, with GDP and 12 other events to rock the currency, that still shakes by the election results. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:



The elections ended in a hung parliament. This political uncertainty, together with weak private capital expenditure, hurt the Australian dollar. The echoes from the elections – whether a government is formed or new elections are called, will continue affecting the Aussie, alongside the many indicators, and also Bernanke’s speech in Jackson Hole. Let’s start:

1. HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. The Australian Housing Association releases a rather early report on the prices of homes, but the exact timing is unknown. In the past two months, sales have dropped sharply: 6.4% and 5.1%. A small correction is expected this time in this volatile indicator.


2. Company Operating Profits: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. This quarterly figure has risen in the past two quarters showing that Australian corporations are enjoying the fruits of the economic situation. Following the surprising rise of 3.9% in Q1, Q2 is expected to be even better, with a 5.9% rise.


3. Guy Debelle talks: Starts speaking on Monday at 23:30 GMT. The RBA Assistant Governor is an influential member of the central bank. In his speech in Sydney, Debelle might hint about future moves regarding the interest rate that has stalled in recent months, after reaching 4.50%.


4. Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. This is the most important release that will be simultaneously released with three other indicators (details below). Consumer have been more careful in the past two months – retail sales rose by only 0.2% in these two months. A stronger rise in sales is expected now – 0.4%.


5. Building Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. The housing sector has been a “victim” of rate hikes. The higher costs slowed this sector significantly with three disappointing drops. Last month’s 3.3% fall will probably be followed by a more modest slide this time – 0.6%.


6. Current Account: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. On one hand, this is a late figure, released after after the more up-to-date related trade balance figure, but on the other hand it’s a more comprehensive quarterly figure also tends to shake the Aussie. The deficit has stabilized around 17 billion in the past three quarters, and is now expected to drop to only 6.3 billion, helping the Aussie.


7. Private Sector Credit: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. Credit is correlated directly with consumer spending, and in this case, complements the retail sales figure released at the same time. Lending growth rose slowly last month – 0.2%, and is now expected to accelerate to 0.3%.


8. AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. The Australian Industry Group showed good growth in the manufacturing sector last month, with a rise to 54.4 points, significantly above the 50 point score that is the pivotal line between growth and contraction.


9. Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Published on Wednesday at 1:00 GMT. China is Australia’s main trade partner, and high demand in China is one of the things that helped Australia avoid a recession. Purchasing managers in China showed a slowdown in the manufacturing sector – a drop from 52.1 to 51.2 points. This time, the survey of 700 purchasing managers is expected to rise to 51.5 points. A drop under 50 (meaning contraction) will hurt the Aussie.


10. GDP: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. After a strong fourth quarter (+1.1%), Australia’s GDP disappointed in Q1 of 2010 by rising only by 0.5%. Given the strong job market and the overall health of the economy, a growth rate of 0.9% is expected now. Any result will shake the Aussie. This is the main event of the week.


11. Commodity Prices:  Published on Wednesday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s economy is highly dependent on exports of commodities, mostly iron and gold. This year-over-year indicator showed a rise of 51% in prices. A similar figure is expected now.


12. Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. Contrary to the wider current account indicator, this monthly balance of goods has been positive in the past three months. Australia’s surplus rose to 3.54 billion in June, and is now expected to edge down to 3.11 billion.


13. AIG Services Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. According to AIG, the services sector is currently contracting – the score is under 50 points for three straight months. This survey of 200 companies is expected to remain around last month’s figure – 46.6.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After the Aussie started lower on a weekend gap, it manged to climb towards 0.90 (mentioned in last week’s outlook), but political uncertainty sent it down again, below the 0.8870 line. A late recovery sent the Aussie to close at 0.8986.

The Aussie now trades between the round psychological number of 0.90 that capped it in the past week, and 0.8870, which is now only a minor support line.

Below, 0.8710, which was a swing low a few months ago is the next line of support. It’s followed by the veteran 0.8567 support line, which began its role back in 2009.

Lower, the double bottom in July, 0.8316, serves as the next support line. Even lower, the year-to-date low of 0.8066 is the ultimate support line.

Looking up above 0.90, the next line is 0.9080 which capped the pair in July and in mid-August. Higher, 0.9135 supported the pair in April and now works as resistance.

Above, 0.9220 was also a support line in April and held the pair a few weeks ago. Even higher, 0.9327 began its role in autumn 2009 and capped the pair many times since then.

I return to being bullish on the Aussie.

The dust from the elections has settled. It seems that a government will be eventually formed. The Australian economy is doing quite well, and the influx of fresh data should support rises.