EUR/USD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Weekly Analysis

EUR/USD Candlesticks and Ichimoku Analysis Last Candlesticks pattern / Time of formation / Trend bias Weekly             Morning star         /   01 Mar 2009     /  Sideways Daily                      Doji                 /   02 Mar 2010     /  Sideways Although the single currency fell again last week to a low of 1.3114 (almost reached our indicated downside target at 1.3110 - 61.8% projection of 1.4580 to 1.3433 measuring from 1.3819) last week, lack of follow through selling suggests minor consolidation would take place this week ahead of the release of key U.S. data and expect recovery to be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3467) and bring retest of said support. Break there would extend the decline from 2009 high of 1.5145 to resumed recent decline from 1.5145 (2009 high) to 1.3080 (1.618 times projection of 1.5145-1.4218 measuring from 1.4580) and possibly the psychological support at 1.3000 but reckon chart support at 1.2885 would hold from here. On the upside, a weekly close above 1.3520/30 would suggest a temporary low has possibly been formed and risk stronger rebound towards resistance at 1.3692 but a weekly close above the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3726) is needed to confirm and bring correction to next chart point at 1.3819 and then 1.3890 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5145-1.3114) which is likely to hold from here. On the daily chart, despite last week’s resumption of downtrend to another low of 1.3114, as euro has recovered from there partly due to profit-taking and short-covering ahead of U.S. data should bring minor correction towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3403), however, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3542) should hold and bring another decline later. Break of said support would extend downtrend to 1.3080 (1.618 times projection of 1.5145 to 1.4218 measuring from 1.4580) and then test of psychological support at 1.3000. On the upside, only a daily close above the Ichimoku cloud bottom would be the first sign that a temporary low has been formed and bring test of resistance at 1.3692 and once this level is penetrated, this would confirm and then retracement towards next resistance at 1.3819 would follow.