Fibonacci Retracement Description ..

Fibonacci Who?

We will be using Fibonacci ratios a lot in our trading so you better learn it and love it like your mother. Fibonacci is a huge subject and there are many different studies of Fibonacci with weird names but we’re going to stick to two:retracement and extension.

Let me first start by introducing you to the Fib man himself…Leonard Fibonacci.

Leonard Fibonacci was a famous Italian mathematician, also called a super duper uber geek, who had an “aha!” moment and discovered a simple series of numbers that created ratios describing the natural proportions of things in the universe

The ratios arise from the following number series: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 ……

This series of numbers is derived by starting with 1 followed by 2 and then adding 1 + 2 to get 3, the third number. Then, adding 2 + 3 to get 5, the fourth number, and so on.

After the first few numbers in the sequence, if you measure the ratio of any number to that of the next higher number you get .618. For example, 34 divided by 55 equals 0.618.

If you measure the ratio between alternate numbers you get .382. For example, 34 divided by 89 = 0.382 and that’s as far as into the explanation as we’ll go.

These ratios are called the “golden mean.” Okay that’s enough mumbo jumbo. Even I’m about to fall asleep with all these numbers. I'll just cut to the chase; these are the ratios you have to know:

Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764

Fibonacci Extension Levels
0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618

You won’t really need to know how to calculate all of this. Your charting software will do all the work for you. But it’s always good to be familiar with the basic theory behind the indicator so you’ll have knowledge to impress your date.

Traders use the Fibonacci retracement levels as support and resistance levels. Since so many traders watch these same levels and place buy and sell orders on them to enter trades or place stops, the support and resistance levels become a self-fulfilling expectation.

Traders use the Fibonacci extension levels as profit taking levels. Again, since so many traders are watching these levels and placing buy and sell orders to take profits, this tool usually works due self-fulfilling expectations.

Most charting software includes both Fibonacci retracement levels and extension level tools. In order to apply Fibonacci levels to your charts, you’ll need to identify Swing High and Swing Low points.

A Swing High is a candlestick with at least two lower highs on both the left and right of itself.

A Swing Low is a candlestick with at least two higher lows on both the left and right of itself.

Let's take a closer look at Fibonacci retracement levels...

Fibonacci Retracement

In an uptrend, the general idea is to go long the market on a retracement to a Fibonacci support level. In order to find the retracement levels, you would click on a significant Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High. This will display each of the Retracement Levels showing both the ratio and corresponding price level. Let’s take a look at some examples of markets in an uptrend.

This is an hourly chart of USD/JPY. Here we plotted the Fibonacci Retracement Levels by clicking on the Swing Low at 110.78 on 07/12/05 and dragging the cursor to the Swing High at 112.27 on 07/13/05. You can see the levels plotted by the software. The Retracement Levels were 111.92 (0.236), 111.70 (0.382), 111.52 (0.500), and 111.35 (0.618). Now the expectation is that if USD/JPY retraces from this high, it will find support at one of the Fibonacci Levels because traders will be placing buy orders at these levels as the market pulls back.



Now let’s look at what actually happened after the Swing High occurred. The market pulled back right through the 0.236 level and continued the next day piercing the 0.382 level but never actually closing below it.  Later on that day, the market resumed its upward move. Clearly buying at the 0.382 level would have been a good short term trade.



Now let’s see how we would use Fibonacci Retracement Levels during a downtrend. This is an hourly chart for EUR/USD. As you can see, we found our Swing High at 1.3278 on 02/28/05 and our Swing Low at 1.3169 a couple hours later. The Retracement Levels were 1.3236 (0.618), 1.3224 (0.500), 1.3211 (0.382), and 1.3195 (.236). The expectation for a downtrend is if it retraces from this low, it will encounter resistance at one of the Fibonacci Levels because traders will be placing sell orders at these levels as the market attempts to rally.



Let’s check out what happened next. Now isn’t that a thing of beauty! The market did try to rally but it barely past the 0.500 level spiking to a high 1.3227 and it actually closed below it. After that bar, you can see that the rally reversed and the downward move continued. You would have made some nice dough selling at the 0.382 level.



Here’s another example. This is an hourly chart for GBP/USD. We had a Swing High of 1.7438 on 07/26/05 and a Swing Low of 1.7336 the next day. So our Retracement Levels are: 1.7399 (0.618), 1.7387 (0.500), 1.7375 (0.382), and 1.7360 (0.236). Looking at the chart, the market looks like it tried to break the 0.500 level on several occasions, but try as it may, it failed. So would putting a sell order at the 0.500 level be a good trade?



If you did, you would have lost some serious cheddar! Take a look at what happened. The Swing Low looked to be the bottom for this downtrend as the market rallied above the Swing High point.



You can see from these examples the market usually finds at least temporary support (during an uptrend) or resistance (during a downtrend) at the Fibonacci Retracements Levels. It’s apparent that there a few problems to deal with here. There’s no way of knowing which level will provide support. The 0.236 seems to provide the weakest support/resistance, while the other levels provide support/resistance at about the same frequency. Even though the charts above show the market usually only retracing to the 0.382 level, it doesn’t mean the price will hit that level every time and reverse. Sometimes it’ll hit the 0.500 and reverse, other times it’ll hit the 0.618 and reverse, and other times the price will totally ignore Mr. Fibonacci and blow past all the levels like similar to the way Allen Iverson blows past his defenders with his nasty first step. Remember, the market will not always resume its uptrend after finding temporary support, but instead continue to decline below the last Swing Low. Same thing for a downtrend. The market may instead decide to continue above the last Swing High.

The placement of stops is a challenge. It’s probably best to place stops below the last Swing Low (on an uptrend) or above the Swing High (on a downtrend), but this requires taking a high level of risk in proportion to the likely profit potential in the trade. This is called reward-to-risk ratio. In a later lesson, you will learn more money management and risk control and how you would only take trades with certain reward-to-risk ratios.

Another problem is determining which Swing Low and Swing High points to start from to create the Fibonacci Retracement Levels. People look at chartsdifferently and so will have their own version of where the Swing High and Swing Low points should be. The point is, there is no one right way to do it, but the bad thing is sometimes it becomes a guessing game.

Pivot Point.

You are going to love this lesson. Using pivot points as a trading strategy has been around for a long time and was originally used by floor traders. This was a nice simple way for floor traders to have some idea of where the market was heading during the course of the day with only a few simple calculations. The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Using some simple arithmetic and the previous days high, low and close, a series of points are derived. These points can be critical support and resistance levels. The pivot level, support and resistance levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels.

Every day the market you are following has an open, high, low and a close for the day (some markets like forex are 24 hours but generally use 5pm EST as the open and close). This information basically contains all the data you need to use pivot points.

The reason pivot points are so popular is that they are predictive as opposed to lagging. You use the information of the previous day to calculate potential turning points for the day you are about to trade (present day).

Because so many traders follow pivot points you will often find that the market reacts at these levels. This give you an opportunity to trade.

If you would rather work the pivot points out by yourself, the formula I use is below:

Resistance 3 = High + 2*(Pivot - Low)
Resistance 2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)
Resistance 1 = 2 * Pivot - Low
Pivot Point = ( High + Close + Low )/3
Support 1 = 2 * Pivot - High
Support 2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)
Support 3 = Low - 2*(High - Pivot)

As you can see from the above formula, just by having the previous days high, low and close you eventually finish up with 7 points, 3 resistance levels, 3 support levels and the actual pivot point.

If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is long trades. If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is for short trades.

The three most important pivot points are R1, S1 and the actual pivot point.

The general idea behind trading pivot points are to look for a reversal or break of R1 or S1. By the time the market reaches R2,R3 or S2,S3 the market will already be overbought or oversold and these levels should be used for exits rather than entries.

A perfect set would be for the market to open above the pivot level and then stall slightly at R1 then go on to R2. You would enter on a break of R1 with a target of R2 and if the market was really strong close half at R2 and target R3 with the remainder of your position. Unfortunately life is not that simple and we have to deal with each trading day the best way we can. I have picked a day at random from last week and what follows are some ideas on how you could have traded that day using pivot points. On the 12th August 04 the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) had the following: High - 1.2297 Low - 1.2213 Close - 1.2249 This gave us: Resistance 3 = 1.2377 Resistance 2 = 1.2337 Resistance 1 = 1.2293 Pivot Point = 1.2253 Support 1 = 1.2209 Support 2 = 1.2169 Support 3 = 1.2125 Have a look at the 5 minute chart below The green line is the pivot point. The blue lines are resistance levels R1,R2 and R3. The red lines are support levels S1,S2 and S3. There are loads of ways to trade this day using pivot points but I shall walk you through a few of them and discuss why some are good in certain situations and why some are bad. The Breakout Trade At the beginning of the day we were below the pivot point, so our bias is for short trades. A channel formed so you would be looking for a break out of the channel, preferably to the downside. In this type of trade you would have your sell entry order just below the lower channel line with a stop order just above the upper channel line and a target of S1. The problem on this day was that, S1 was very close to the breakout level and there was just not enough meat in the trade (13 pips). This is a good entry technique for you. Just because it was not suitable this day, does not mean it will not be suitable the next day. The Pullback Trade This is one of my favorite set ups. The market passes through S1 and then pulls back. An entry order is placed below support, which in this case was the most recent low before the pullback. A stop is then placed above the pullback (the most recent high - peak) and a target set for S2. The problem again, on this day was that the target of S2 was to close, and the market never took out the previous support, which tells us that, the market sentiment is beginning to change. Breakout of Resistance As the day progressed, the market started heading back up to S1 and formed a channel (congestion area). This is another good set up for a trade. An entry order is placed just above the upper channel line, with a stop just below the lower channel line and the first target would be the pivot line. If you where trading more than one position, then you would close out half your position as the market approaches the pivot line, tighten your stop and then watch market action at that level. As it happened, the market never stopped and your second target then became R1. This was also easily achieved and I would have closed out the rest of the position at that level. Advanced As I mentioned earlier, there are lots of ways to trade with pivot points. A more advanced method is to use the cross of two moving averages as a confirmation of a breakout. You can even use combinations of indicators to help you make a decision. It might be the cross of two averages and also MACD must be in buy mode. Mess around with a few of your favorite indicators but remember the signal is a break of a level and the indicators are just confirmation. We haven't even got into patterns around pivot levels or failures but that is not the point of this lesson

Pivot Point.

You are going to love this lesson. Using pivot points as a trading strategy has been around for a long time and was originally used by floor traders. This was a nice simple way for floor traders to have some idea of where the market was heading during the course of the day with only a few simple calculations. The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Using some simple arithmetic and the previous days high, low and close, a series of points are derived. These points can be critical support and resistance levels. The pivot level, support and resistance levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels.

Every day the market you are following has an open, high, low and a close for the day (some markets like forex are 24 hours but generally use 5pm EST as the open and close). This information basically contains all the data you need to use pivot points.

The reason pivot points are so popular is that they are predictive as opposed to lagging. You use the information of the previous day to calculate potential turning points for the day you are about to trade (present day).

Because so many traders follow pivot points you will often find that the market reacts at these levels. This give you an opportunity to trade.

If you would rather work the pivot points out by yourself, the formula I use is below:

Resistance 3 = High + 2*(Pivot - Low)
Resistance 2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)
Resistance 1 = 2 * Pivot - Low
Pivot Point = ( High + Close + Low )/3
Support 1 = 2 * Pivot - High
Support 2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)
Support 3 = Low - 2*(High - Pivot)

As you can see from the above formula, just by having the previous days high, low and close you eventually finish up with 7 points, 3 resistance levels, 3 support levels and the actual pivot point.

If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is long trades. If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is for short trades.

The three most important pivot points are R1, S1 and the actual pivot point.

The general idea behind trading pivot points are to look for a reversal or break of R1 or S1. By the time the market reaches R2,R3 or S2,S3 the market will already be overbought or oversold and these levels should be used for exits rather than entries.

A perfect set would be for the market to open above the pivot level and then stall slightly at R1 then go on to R2. You would enter on a break of R1 with a target of R2 and if the market was really strong close half at R2 and target R3 with the remainder of your position. Unfortunately life is not that simple and we have to deal with each trading day the best way we can. I have picked a day at random from last week and what follows are some ideas on how you could have traded that day using pivot points. On the 12th August 04 the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) had the following: High - 1.2297 Low - 1.2213 Close - 1.2249 This gave us: Resistance 3 = 1.2377 Resistance 2 = 1.2337 Resistance 1 = 1.2293 Pivot Point = 1.2253 Support 1 = 1.2209 Support 2 = 1.2169 Support 3 = 1.2125 Have a look at the 5 minute chart below The green line is the pivot point. The blue lines are resistance levels R1,R2 and R3. The red lines are support levels S1,S2 and S3. There are loads of ways to trade this day using pivot points but I shall walk you through a few of them and discuss why some are good in certain situations and why some are bad. The Breakout Trade At the beginning of the day we were below the pivot point, so our bias is for short trades. A channel formed so you would be looking for a break out of the channel, preferably to the downside. In this type of trade you would have your sell entry order just below the lower channel line with a stop order just above the upper channel line and a target of S1. The problem on this day was that, S1 was very close to the breakout level and there was just not enough meat in the trade (13 pips). This is a good entry technique for you. Just because it was not suitable this day, does not mean it will not be suitable the next day. The Pullback Trade This is one of my favorite set ups. The market passes through S1 and then pulls back. An entry order is placed below support, which in this case was the most recent low before the pullback. A stop is then placed above the pullback (the most recent high - peak) and a target set for S2. The problem again, on this day was that the target of S2 was to close, and the market never took out the previous support, which tells us that, the market sentiment is beginning to change. Breakout of Resistance As the day progressed, the market started heading back up to S1 and formed a channel (congestion area). This is another good set up for a trade. An entry order is placed just above the upper channel line, with a stop just below the lower channel line and the first target would be the pivot line. If you where trading more than one position, then you would close out half your position as the market approaches the pivot line, tighten your stop and then watch market action at that level. As it happened, the market never stopped and your second target then became R1. This was also easily achieved and I would have closed out the rest of the position at that level. Advanced As I mentioned earlier, there are lots of ways to trade with pivot points. A more advanced method is to use the cross of two moving averages as a confirmation of a breakout. You can even use combinations of indicators to help you make a decision. It might be the cross of two averages and also MACD must be in buy mode. Mess around with a few of your favorite indicators but remember the signal is a break of a level and the indicators are just confirmation. We haven't even got into patterns around pivot levels or failures but that is not the point of this lesson

De Mark Trend Lines.

When searching for Forex information on the internet you are likely to find articles relating to trendlines and trendline analysis.

Tom DeMark is a specialist in the field of technical market analysis and his best-selling book "The New Science of Technical Analysis" released in 1994 spells out some innovative techniques when it comes to the use of trendlines.

Much Forex information on the internet is of a general nature, and many articles are written about Forex by individuals who are not traders themselves. Tom DeMark on the other hand has had a long career with institutions trading stocks, futures, currencies and options.

His guidelines on the use of trendlines are very specific and they can be helpful to the newer trader who is searching for reliable Forex information on how to use standard indicators.

Here is a brief step-by-step description of how to draw DeMark trendlines:

Note: The term swing high and swing low (also called cycle high and cycle low) refers to the following:

In An Uptrend: A swing high is the wick of a candle that is higher than the wick of the candle to the left and right.

In A Downtrend: A swing low is the wick of a candle that is lower than the wick of the candle to the left and right.

Obviously the more candles to the left and right that are higher in a swing low or lower in a swing high makes the swing or cycle more significant.

An uptrend is where price is making higher highs and higher lows. A downtrend is where price is making lower highs and lower lows.

Drawing DeMark Trendlines

Drawing Trendlines In An Uptrend

1. Examine the bottoms of the candles on your chart and identify the most recent candle wick that is lower than the candle wicks to the immediate right and left of it.


2. Look left on the chart, and identify the previous low candle that has candle wicks higher to the immediate right and left of it which is lower than the current low candle.


3. Now draw a line from the current lowest candle to the previous lowest candle (drawing from right to left).


4. Now take the end of the newly drawn line which stops at the current low candle and extend it forward some distance (drawing from the present position to the right).

Drawing Trendlines In A Downtrend

1. Examine the tops of the candles on your chart and identify the most recent candle wick that is higher than the candle wicks to the immediate right and left of it.


2. Look left on the chart, and identify the previous high candle that has candle wicks lower to the immediate right and left of it which is higher than the current high candle.


3. Now draw a line from the current highest candle to the previous highest candle (drawing from right to left).


4. Now take the end of the newly drawn line which stops at the current high candle and extend it forward some distance (drawing from the present position to the right).

You have now drawn a Tom DeMark trendline.

This can now be a reference point for future price action. It will often be observed that price will come and check this level. If it breaks through, it can mean a change in direction, the significance of which will depend on the time frame being used.

Trendlines drawn on 5 minute or 15 minute charts have much lesser significance than trendlines drawn on higher time frames such as the 1 hour, 4 hour, or daily.

Caution Required

Much Forex information extols the virtues of trendlines as an indicator of possible future price action.

Mr. DeMark certainly has made this a science and his detailed approach to drawing trendlines is certainly more accurate than just drawing general trendlines along the bottoms and tops of trends according to the way the eye sees.

However, trendlines in themselves do not indicate where high probability trades can be taken.

It is important to use a variety of indicators before pulling the trigger. Examining previous levels of support and resistance is probably far more significant in determining where price is likely to hesitate that watching trendlines.

However, they can be useful. If you find a key support or resistance level also coincides with a Fibonacci retracement or extension level which is also at an intersection with a trendline, then you have built a reasonably solid case for a trade.


Using Trendline Analysis As Part Of Your Forex Strategy

Often, not always, price will break a trendline and move away 10 or 20 pips. Then, it comes back to test the backside of that trendline. That’s where you enter the trade.

If the trendline break coincides with your other favorite indicators such as:

• Pivot Points


• Fibonacci Calculations


• Previous Support Or Resistance

then set an entry order for price to take you in when it comes back to test that level.

That way you enter the trade at an optimum level and squeeze even more pips out of the move.

Note the examples below:







USD/CHF
1 Hour Chart

See how price broke the trendline, then came back to test the backside.

If you look carefully at the chart and run your eyes left, you will see that the trendline bounce also coincides with a previous support/resistance level.

If you did some Fibonacci calculations you would also find that same point matches with 50 and 62% retracement levels.

With that convergence of factors, the trendline backside test makes a good entry point!

Stock Trend Lines.

Technical analysis is built on the assumption that prices trend. Trend Lines are an important tool in technical analysis for both trend identification and confirmation. A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points and then extends into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. Many of the principles applicable to support and resistance levels can be applied to trend lines as well. It is important that you understand all of the concepts presented in our Support and Resistance article before you continue.



UPTREND LINES

An uptrend line has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two or more low points. The second low must be higher than the first for the line to have a positive slope. Uptrend linesact as support and indicate that net-demand (demand less supply) is increasing even as the price rises. A rising price combined with increasing demand is very bullish, and shows a strong determination on the part of the buyers. As long as prices remain above the trend line, the uptrend is considered solid and intact. A break below the uptrend line indicates that net-demand has weakened and a change in trend could be imminent.



DOWNTREND LINES

A downtrend line has a negative slope and is formed by connecting two or more high points. The second high must be lower than the first for the line to have a negative slope. Downtrendlines act as resistance, and indicate that net-supply (supply less demand) is increasing even as the price declines. A declining price combined with increasing supply is very bearish, and shows the strong resolve of the sellers. As long as prices remain below the downtrend line, the downtrend is solid and intact. A break above the downtrend line indicates that net-supply is decreasing and that a change of trend could be imminent.

For a detailed explanation of trend changes, which are different than just trend line breaks, please see our article on the Dow Theory.

Scale Setting

High points and low points appear to line up better for trend lines when prices are displayed using a semi-log scale. This is especially true when long-term trend lines are being drawn or when there is a large change in price. Most charting programs allow users to set the scale as arithmetic or semi-log. An arithmetic scale displays incremental values (5,10,15,20,25,30) evenly as they move up the y-axis. A $10 movement in price will look the same from $10 to $20 or from $100 to $110. A semi-log scale displays incremental values in percentage terms as they move up the y-axis. A move from $10 to $20 is a 100% gain, and would appear to be a much larger than a move from $100 to $110, which is only a 10% gain.



In the case of EMC, there was a large price change over a long period of time. While there were not any false breaks below the uptrend line on the arithmetic scale, the rate of ascent appears smoother on the semi-log scale. EMC doubled three times in less than two years. On the semi-log scale, the trend line fits all the way up. On the arithmetic scale, three differenttrend lines were required to keep pace with the advance.



In the case of Amazon.com (AMZN), there were two false breaks above the downtrend line as the stock declined during 2000 and 2001. These false break outs could have led to premature buying as the stock continued to decline after each one. The stock lost 60% of its value three times over a two year period. The semi-log scale reflects the percentage loss evenly, and the downtrend line was never broken.

VALIDATION

It takes two or more points to draw a trend line The more points used to draw the trend line, the more validity attached to the support or resistance level represented by the trend line. It can sometimes be difficult to find more than 2 points from which to construct a trend line Even though trend lines are an important aspect of technical analysis, it is not always possible to draw trend lines on every price chart. Sometimes the lows or highs just don't match up, and it is best not to force the issue. The general rule in technical analysis is that it takes two points to draw a trend line and the third point confirms the validity.



The chart of Microsoft (MSFT) shows an uptrend line that has been touched 4 times. After the third touch in Nov-99, the trend line was considered a valid line of support. Now that the stock has bounced off of this level a fourth time, the soundness of the support level is enhanced even more. As long as the stock remains above the trend line (support), the trend will remain in control of the bulls. A break below would signal that net-supply was increasing and that a change in trend could be imminent.

SPACING OF POINTS

The lows used to form an uptrend line and the highs used to form a downtrend line should not be too far apart, or too close together. The most suitable distance apart will depend on the time frame, the degree of price movement, and personal preferences. If the lows (highs) are too close together, the validity of the reaction low (high) may be in question. If the lows are too far apart, the relationship between the two points could be suspect. An ideal trend line is made up of relatively evenly spaced lows (or highs). The trend line in the above MSFT example represents well-spaced low points.



On the Wal-Mart (WMT) example, the second high point appears to be too close to the first high point for a valid trend line; however, it would be feasible to draw a trend line beginning at point 2 and extending down to the February reaction high.

ANGLES

As the steepness of a trend line increases, the validity of the support or resistance level decreases. A steep trend line results from a sharp advance (or decline) over a brief period of time. The angle of a trend line created from such sharp moves is unlikely to offer a meaningful support or resistance level. Even if the trend line is formed with three seemingly valid points, attempting to play a trend line break or to use the support and resistance level established it will often prove difficult.



The trend line for Yahoo! (YHOO) was touched four times over a 5-month period. The spacing between the points appears OK, but the steepness of the trend line is unsustainable, and the price is more likely than not to drop below the trend line. However, trying to time this drop or make a play after the trend line is broken is a difficult task. The amount of data displayed and the size of the chart can also affect the angle of a trend line. Short and wide charts are less likely to have steep trend lines than long and narrow charts. Keep that in mind when assessing the validity and sustainability of a trend line.

Importance of Support and Resistance..

In almost every issue of the RightLine Report we refer to support and resistance levels. Indeed, many of our stock entry points are based on potential price reactions to these important junctions. So just what are support and resistance levels, and why are they so important?

In the book "Trading For A Living," Dr. Alex Elder gives a simple, but effective image of support and resistance - "A ball hits the floor and bounces. It drops after it hits the ceiling. Support and resistance is like a floor and a ceiling, with prices sandwiched between them." When a stock's price has fallen to a level where demand at that price increases and buyers begin to buy, this creates a "floor" or support level. When a stock's price rises to a level where demand decreases and owners begin to sell to lock in their profits, this creates the "ceiling" or resistance level.

Why? Because investors and traders are people and they have memories! Those that follow a particular stock just "know" that it "never (or rarely) falls below xx" and it "never rises above yy". The "floor" and the "ceiling" are not fixed barriers you can touch; rather they are psychological barriers. These psychological barriers are built when traders who bought the stock at the "ceiling" are grateful to be able to get out of their positions and just break even. They were beating themselves over the head from the day they bought it, swearing they will never be so "stupid" again, and praying that they can just get out without losing their shirts.

How To Recognize Support and Resistance

You can identify support and resistance levels by studying a chart. Look for a series of low points where a stock falls to this level, but then falls no further. This is a support level. When you find that a stock rises to a certain high, but no higher, you have found a resistance level. If you find yourself struggling to find the support or resistance levels, then those levels may be not be very strong.



Strength of Support or Resistance

The more times that a stock bounces off support and falls back from resistance, the stronger these support and resistance levels become. It creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more often it happens, the more likely it is to happen again. The more those historical patterns repeat themselves, the more traders "know," and the more confident they become in forecasting the future behavior of the stock. Some stocks become so entrenched in this trading range, that the stock eventually has a hard time breaking through the levels to either the up or downside.

Using Support and Resistance

Long traders will often set a stop slightly below one of the support levels, and short sellers will often set their stops just above resistance. The reason for these stop levels is because investors "know" that historically; these price points are unlikely to be violated. When either of these points is exceeded to the point that stops go into effect, then there is the potential for a powerful price move as automatic buying or selling is set into motion by the stops being triggered.

Trading Ranges

A long-term pattern of a stock's price bouncing between support and resistance levels creates what we call a trading range. Although most charts don't show a predictable pattern, many do. If you find a stock that consistently trades in a range, this may be a good opportunity to benefit from the predictable movement in the stock.

The best way to trade a "rolling stock" or "channeling stock" is to buy just after you start to see the bounce off support and sell just after you start to see it drop back off resistance. Notice that you should wait to see the beginning of the "expected" action before pulling the trigger. Many traders get in the habit of buying or selling before they actually see the stock bounce or fall, hoping to sell at the peak or buy at the low. What these traders risk is that the stock will not do what they expect it to do. By waiting to see the reversal, a trader may give up a small amount of profit, but they will also avoid the risk of selling just before a stock breaks out to the upside or buying just before a stock falls to the downside. There are many range-bound stocks that long-term "buy and hold" investors have sat on for month after month without making any money; on the other hand, the "channel surfer" has made a decent return by buying near the bottom of the pattern and selling near the top. Not all stocks are candidates for this type of trading, but you will see them from time to time.

Breakouts

We've all seen charts of stocks that traded in a range for a time, and then bust through resistance to shoot effortlessly higher. Why does this happen? Recall that the more times a stock hits a support or resistance level, the "stronger" that level apparently becomes. Being astute traders we just "know" that a stock's price is unlikely to exceed a strong resistance level. The more of us that recognize that fact, the more short sellers there are likely to be lining up to short the stock. And the more short sellers there are the more buy stops there will be set at that "unlikely" level.

But, let's say the stock receives a strong recommendation from three analysts who feel the stock is a "strong buy." The result? Demand for the stock goes up, short sellers are "squeezed" out as they are stopped out and are forced to buy the stock to cover their short positions, creating what we affectionately term a "short squeeze." Everyone who thought they knew where the ceiling (resistance) was, no longer holds a position in that stock. What once was the ceiling becomes the new floor, or support level.

Once a stock breaks out above strong resistance, it takes some time to create and recognize the new ceiling. Short sellers become less likely to step in because they can no longer anticipate where the stock is likely to "bounce back down." RightLine readers are familiar with the term "blue-sky territory" or "blue-sky breakout." We use the term blue-sky to indicate when a stock breaks above all previous resistance points.

Fallouts

Just as support can be considered the opposite of resistance, the phenomenon just described as a breakout can also occur to the downside. This is what we refer to as fallout. Traders who own a stock long will often have stops set just below significant support levels. If these support levels are broken, traders will be stopped out if the stock falls below support. The increased selling volume will normally cause a quick and decisive drop in the stock because those buyers who "knew" the floor (support) level, are now are out of the stock, leaving very few buyers until the stock hits the next level of support.

50 DMA Support Level

Before wrapping up this discussion, we want to draw your attention to the fact that many technical analysis packages are programmed with 50 DMA (Daily Moving Average) rebounds in mind. Though the behavior of each stock is unique, you will often see that as a stock falls to near the 50 DMA, buyers come in, reversing the downtrend and causing the stock to "bounce." By reviewing a few dozen stocks, you will notice that some stocks have a very predictable pattern of bouncing off support at the 50 DMA. While you won't find this same pattern among all stocks, when you do find it, it can be quite valuable. Just as in the case when traders "know" the trading range of a stock is stuck between lateral support and resistance levels (trading range or channel), they will also look to the 50 DMA to provide an indication of support. We see this happen especially on strong, trending stocks. Pre-programmed technical analysis packages have the 50 DMA built in, creating an even stronger tendency for a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many of the stocks covered in the Right Line report tend to find support at their 50 or 22 DMAs.

Understanding the concept of support, resistance, trading ranges, breakouts and fallouts can be quite valuable to all traders. Support and resistance is the one of the strongest and most dependable tools available to the trader. Remember that it is best to use any tool along with other indicators when deciding whether and/or when to take or exit a position.

What is Support and Resistance???

Support and Resistance

Support and resistance is one of the most widely used concepts in trading. Strangely enough, everyone seems to have their own idea on how you should measure support and resistance.

Let’s just take a look at the basics first.

Look at the diagram above. As you can see, this zigzag pattern is making its way up (bull market). When the market moves up and then pulls back, the highest point reached before it pulled back is now resistance.

As the market continues up again, the lowest point reached before it started back is now support. In this way resistance and support are continually formed as the market oscillates over time. The reverse of course is true of the downtrend.

Plotting Support and Resistance

One thing to remember is that support and resistance levels are not exact numbers. Often times you will see a support or resistance level that appears broken, but soon after find out that the market was just testing it. With candlestick charts, these "tests" of support and resistance are usually represented by the candlestick shadows.



Notice how the shadows of the candles tested the 2500 resistance level. At those times it seemed like the market was "breaking" resistance. However, in hindsight we can see that the market was merely testing that level.

So how do we truly know if support or resistance is broken?

There is no definite answer to this question. Some argue that a support or resistance level is broken if the market can actually close past that level. However, you will find that this is not always the case. Let's take our same example from above and see what happened when the price actually closed past the 2500 resistance level.



In this case, the price had closed twice above the 2500 resistance level but both times ended up falling back down below it. If you had believed that these were real breakouts and bought this pair, you would've been seriously hurtin! Looking at the chart now, you can visually see and come to the conclusion that the resistance was not actually broken; and that it is still very much in tact and now even stronger.

So to help you filter out these false breakouts, you should think of support and resistance more of as "zones" rather than concrete numbers. One way to help you find these zones is to plot support and resistance on a line chart rather than a candlestick chart. The reason is that line charts only show you the closing price while candlesticks add the extreme highs and lows to the picture. These highs and lows can be misleading because often times they are just the "knee-jerk" reactions of the market. It's like when someone is doing something really strange, but when asked about it, they simply reply, "Sorry, it's just a reflex."

When plotting support and resistance, you don't want the reflexes of the market. You only want to plot its intentional movements.

Looking at the line chart, you want to plot your support and resistance lines around areas where you can see the price forming several peaks or valleys.

Other interesting tidbits about support and resistance:

1. When the market passes through resistance, that resistance now becomes support.


2. The more often price tests a level of resistance or support without breaking it the stronger the area of resistance or support is.

Forex V/S Stock Market...

Forex versus Stocks

Forex versus Stocks Advantages
Advantage	Forex	Stocks
24-hour Trading	YES	NO
Commission Free Trading	YES	NO
Instant Execution of Market Orders	YES	NO
Short-Selling without an Uptick	YES	NO

24-Hour Market

The Forex market is a seamless 24-hour market. Most brokers are open from Sunday at 2PM EST until Friday at 4 PM EST with customer service available 24/7. With the ability to trade during the U.S., Asian, and European market hours, you can customize your own trading schedule.

Commission Free Trading

Most Forex brokers charge no commission or additional transactions fees to trade currencies online or over the phone. Combined with the tight, consistent, and fully transparent spread, Forex trading costs are lower than those of any other market. The brokers are compensated for theirs services through the bid/ask prices.

Instantaneous Execution of Market Orders

Your trades are instantly executed under normal market conditions. You also have price certainty on every market order under normal market conditions. What you click is the price you get. You’re able to execute directly off real-time streaming prices (Yeeeaah!). There's no discrepancy between the displayed price shown on the platform and the execution price to enter your trade. Keep in mind that most brokers only guarantee stop, limit, and entry orders are only guaranteed under normal market conditions. Fills are instantaneous most of the time, but under extraordinarily volatile market conditions order execution may experience delays.

Short-Selling without an Uptick

Unlike the equity market, there is no restriction on short selling in the currency market. Trading opportunities exist in the currency market regardless of whether a trader is long or short, or which way the market is moving. Since currency trading always involves buying one currency and selling another, there is no structural bias to the market. So you always have equal access to trade in a rising or falling market.

More Reasons to Like Forex

No Middlemen

Centralized exchanges provide many advantages to the trader. However, one of the problems with any centralized exchange is the involvement of middlemen. Any party located in between the trader and the buyer or seller of the security or instrument traded will cost them money. The cost can be either in time or in fees. Spot currency trading does away with the middlemen and allows clients to interact directly with the market-maker responsible for the pricing on a particular currency pair. Forex traders get quicker access and cheaper costs.

Buy/Sell programs do not control the market

How many times have you heard that "fund A" was selling "X" or buying "Z"? Rumor had it that the funds were taking profits because of the end of the financial year or because today is "triple witching day", all as an explanation of why this stock is up or the market in general is down or positive on the session. The stock market is very susceptible to large fund buying and selling.

In spot trading, the liquidity of the Forex market makes the likelihood of any one fund or bank to control a particular currency very slim. Banks, hedge funds, governments, retail currency conversion houses and large net-worth individuals are just some of the participants in the spot currency markets where the liquidity is unprecedented.

Analysts and brokerage firms are less likely to influence the market

Have you watched TV lately? Heard about a certain Internet stock and an analyst of a prestigious brokerage firm accused of keeping its recommendations, such as "buy" when the stock was rapidly declining? It is the nature of these relationships. No matter what the government does to step in and discourage this type of activity, we have not heard the last of it.

IPO's are big business for both the companies going public and the brokerage houses. Relationships are mutually beneficial and analysts work for the brokerage houses that need the companies as clients. That catch-22 will never disappear.

Foreign exchange, as the prime market, generates billions in revenue for the world's banks and is a necessity of the global markets. Analysts in foreign exchange don't drive the deal flow, they just analyze the forex market.

8,000 stocks versus 4 major currency pairs

There are approximately 4,500 stocks listed on the New York Stock exchange. Another 3,500 are listed on the NASDAQ. Which one will you trade? Got the time to stay on top of so many companies? In spot currency trading, there are dozens of currencies traded, but the majority of the market trades the 4 major pairs.  Aren’t four pairs much easier to keep an eye on than thousands of stocks?  I’d say so.

What is FOREX?

The Foreign Exchange market, also referred to as the "FOREX" or "Forex" or "Retail forex" or "FX" or "Spot FX" or just "Spot" is the largest financial market in the world, with a volume of over $4 trillion a day. If you compare that to the $25 billion a day volume that the New York Stock Exchange trades, you can easily see how enormous the Foreign Exchange really is. It actually equates to more than three times the total amount of the stocks and futures markets combined! Forex rocks!

What is traded on the Foreign Exchange market?

The simple answer is money. Forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. Currencies are traded through a broker or dealer, and are traded in pairs; for example the euro and the US dollar (EUR/USD) or the British pound and the Japanese Yen (GBP/JPY).

Because you're not buying anything physical, this kind of trading can be confusing. Think of buying a currency as buying a share in a particular country. When you buy, say, Japanese Yen, you are in effect buying a share in the Japanese economy, as the price of the currency is a direct reflection of what the market thinks about the current and future health of the Japanese economy.

In general, the exchange rate of a currency versus other currencies is a reflection of the condition of that country's economy, compared to the other countries' economies.

Unlike other financial markets like the New York Stock Exchange, the Forex spot market has neither a physical location nor a central exchange. The Forex market is considered an Over-the-Counter (OTC) or 'Interbank' market, due to the fact that the entire market is run electronically, within a network of banks, continuously over a 24-hour period.

Until the late 1990's, only the "big guys" could play this game. The initial requirement was that you could trade only if you had about ten to fifty million bucks to start with! Forex was originally intended to be used by bankers and large institutions - and not by us "little guys". However, because of the rise of the Internet, online Forex trading firms are now able to offer trading accounts to 'retail' traders like us.

All you need to get started is a computer, a high-speed Internet connection, and the information contained within this site.

BabyPips.com was created to introduce novice or beginner traders to all the essential aspects of foreign exchange, in a fun and easy-to-understand manner.

What is a Spot Market?

A spot market is any market that deals in the current price of a financial instrument.

Which Currencies Are Traded?

The most popular currencies along with their symbols are shown below:

Symbol	Country	Currency	Nickname
USD	United States	Dollar	Buck
EUR	Euro members	Euro	Fiber
JPY	Japan	Yen	Yen
GBP	Great Britain	Pound	Cable
CHF	Switzerland	Franc	Swissy
CAD	Canada	Dollar	Loonie
AUD	Australia	Dollar	Aussie
NZD	New Zealand	Dollar	Kiwi

Forex currency symbols are always three letters, where the first two letters identify the name of the country and the third letter identifies the name of that country’s currency.

When Can Currencies Be Traded?

The spot FX market is unique within the world markets. It’s like a Super Wal-Mart where the market is open 24-hours a day. At any time, somewhere around the world a financial center is open for business, and banks and other institutions exchange currencies every hour of the day and night with generally only minor gaps on the weekend.

The foreign exchange markets follow the sun around the world, so you can trade late at night (if you’re a vampire) or in the morning (if you’re an early bird). Keep in mind though, the early bird doesn’t necessarily get the worm in this market - you might get the worm but a bigger, nastier bird of prey can sneak up and eat you too…

Time Zone	New York	GMT
Tokyo Open	7:00 pm	0:00
Tokyo Close	4:00 am	9:00
London Open	3:00 am	8:00
London Close	12:00 pm	17:00
New York Open	8:00 am	13:00
New York Close	5:00 pm	22:00

The Forex market (OTC)

The Forex OTC market is by far the biggest and most popular financial market in the world, traded globally by a large number of individuals and organizations. In the OTC market, participants determine who they want to trade with depending on trading conditions, attractiveness of prices and reputation of the trading counterpart.

The chart below shows global foreign exchange activity. The dollar is the most traded currency, being on one side of 86% of all transactions. The euro’s share is second at 37%, while that of the yen is third at 16.5%.

Why Trade Foreign Currencies?

There are many benefits and advantages to trading Forex. Here are just a few reasons why so many people are choosing this market:

• No commissions.
  No clearing fees, no exchange fees, no government fees, no brokerage fees. Brokers are compensated for their services through something called the bid-ask spread.


• No middlemen. Spot currency trading eliminates the middlemen, and allows you to trade directly with the market responsible for the pricing on a particular currency pair.


• No fixed lot size.
  In the futures markets, lot or contract sizes are determined by the exchanges. A standard-size contract for silver futures is 5000 ounces. In spot Forex, you determine your own lot size. This allows traders to participate with accounts as small as $250 (although we explain later why a $250 account is a bad idea).


• Low transaction costs.
  The retail transaction cost (the bid/ask spread) is typically less than 0.1 percent under normal market conditions. At larger dealers, the spread could be as low as .07 percent. Of course this depends on your leverage and all will be explained later.


• A 24-hour market.
  There is no waiting for the opening bell - from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon EST, the Forex market never sleeps. This is awesome for those who want to trade on a part-time basis, because you can choose when you want to trade--morning, noon or night.


• No one can corner the market.
  The foreign exchange market is so huge and has so many participants that no single entity (not even a central bank) can control the market price for an extended period of time.


• Leverage.
  In Forex trading, a small margin deposit can control a much larger total contract value. Leverage gives the trader the ability to make nice profits, and at the same time keep risk capital to a minimum. For example, Forex brokers offer 200 to 1 leverage, which means that a $50 dollar margin deposit would enable a trader to buy or sell $10,000 worth of currencies. Similarly, with $500 dollars, one could trade with $100,000 dollars and so on. But leverage is a double-edged sword. Without proper risk management, this high degree of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.


• High Liquidity.
  Because the Forex Market is so enormous, it is also extremely liquid. This means that under normal market conditions, with a click of a mouse you can instantaneously buy and sell at will. You are never "stuck" in a trade. You can even set your online trading platform to automatically close your position at your desired profit level (a limit order), and/or close a trade if a trade is going against you (a stop loss order).


• Free “Demo” Accounts, News, Charts, and Analysis. Most online Forex brokers offer 'demo' accounts to practice trading, along with breaking Forex news and charting services. All free! These are very valuable resources for “poor” and SMART traders who would like to hone their trading skills with 'play' money before opening a live trading account and risking real money.


• “Mini” and “Micro” Trading:
  You would think that getting started as a currency trader would cost a ton of money. The fact is, compared to trading stocks, options or futures, it doesn't. Online Forex brokers offer "mini" and “micro” trading accounts, some with a minimum account deposit of $300 or less. Now we're not saying youshould open an account with the bare minimum but it does makes Forex much more accessible to the average (poorer) individual who doesn't have a lot of start-up trading capital.

What Tools Do I Need to Start Trading Forex?

A computer with a high-speed Internet connection and all the information on this site is all that is needed to begin trading currencies.

What Does It Cost to Trade Forex?

An online currency trading (a “micro account”) may be opened with a couple hundred bucks. Do not laugh – micro accounts and its bigger cousin, the mini account, are both good ways to get your feet wet without drowning. For a micro account, we'd recommend at least $1,000 to start. For a mini account, we’d recommend at least $10,000 to start.

Advantages of the Forex Market...

What are the advantages of the Forex Market over other types of investments?

When thinking about various investments, there is one investment vehicle that comes to mind. The Forex or Foreign Currency Market has many advantages over other types of investments. The Forex market is open 24 hrs a day, unlike the regular stock markets. Most investments require a substantial amount of capital before you can take advantage of an investment opportunity. To trade Forex, you only need a small amount of capital. Anyone can enter the market with as little as $300 USD to trade a "mini account", which allows you to trade lots of 10,000 units. One lot of 10,000 units of currency is equal to 1 contract. Each "pip" or move up or down in the currency pair is worth a $1 gain or loss, depending on which side of the market you are on. A standard account gives you control over 100,000 units of currency and a pip is worth $10.

The Forex market is also very liquid. When trading Forex you have full control of your capital.

Many other types of investments require holding your money up for long periods of time. This is a disadvantage because if you need to use the capital it can be difficult to access to it without taking a huge loss. Also, with a small amount of money, you can control

Forex traders can be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit. Forex traders can make a profit during up trends and downtrends. Forex Trading can be risky, but with having the ability to have a good system to follow, good money management skills, and possessing self discipline, Forex trading can be a relatively low risk investment.

The Forex market can be traded anytime, anywhere. As long as you have access to a computer, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important thing to remember is before jumping into trading currencies, is it wise to practice with "paper money", or "fake money." Most brokers have demo accounts where you can download their trading station and practice real time with fake money. While this is no guarantee of your performance with real money, practicing can give you a huge advantage to become better prepared when you trade with your real, hard earned money. There are also many Forex courses on the internet, just be careful when choosing which ones to purchase.

Trading Gaps in the Forex: Not Trendy, But Very Profitable!

Common sense isn't common, more young kids know who's on the "Surreal Life" than know where Mexico is located, and if it's not new, it's not "trendy" or "hip." While this general foolishness seems to have nothing to do with Forex trading, why is it that long effective trading strategies are ignored because they're "simple" or "old?"

Why spend hours a day on an advanced, new fangled, supposedly cutting edge (read: complicated and confusing) trading system when the old "boring" version is profitable?

Isn't profit the point? Isn't it better to be old, boring, and profitable than new, flashy, and questionable? Isn't profit the bottom line here?

Gap trading is nothing new. It's been used in the stock market and in commodities trading for decades, and takes advantage of the difference, or "gap" between the closing price of the day before with the opening price of the next day, but this strategy is ignored in the Forex. Why is that?

Well, gaps rely on a market close, and when the Forex market never closes, it's really hard to get a gap or take advantage of it. In fact, during an entire trading week, there is only one time when using gap trading strategies in the Forex market is even possible! Sunday night at the open is the only time that gap trading Forex is possible.

Boring? For most of us, yeah. Pointless? Oh heck no. While different trading systems are looking for that .5% or that 1% above the 50% mark, some signs and indicators suggest that the Forex gap method is correct over 85% of the time.

No, that's not a typo, and that's not hype. Once a week may be boring, but those numbers make it worth the wait and should have you drooling at the possibilities.

So how do you trade the gaps on the Forex market?

First, understand that there are 3, and ONLY 3, things that the price can do between Friday's close and Sunday's open. They can:

1. Open above Friday's close, which is called "gapping up"
2. Open below Friday's close, which is called "gapping down"
3. Open at the exact same price, meaning there was no gap

There can be large gaps, often referred to as "full gaps" in price, or small gaps, known as "partial gaps." As far as strategy, there's no difference between the two. Good gap trading strategy works for all types of gaps. The one thing to watch out for is gap size. I don't recommend trading a gap unless there is a 15 pip difference, and this strategy is best used with the major currency pairs.

Knowing this, the rule to trading gaps may seem the opposite of what you would expect, but if you want to be right 85% of the time, here's the rule you want to follow: Whatever direction the gap is going, you want to trade the opposite direction.

So if a pair gaps up, sell short, if it gaps down, buy more. This strategy works a stunning amount of the time, and can be the edge in the Forex market that you've been looking for.

How To Read Forex Charts: 5 Things You Must Know...

Learning the basic skills in forex, such as how to read forex charts, is really important.

This is because once you have this vital skill under your belt, it will be a lot easier and quicker when the time comes for you to learn and practice an actual forex trading system.

By the time you finish this article, you'll learn how to read forex charts, as well as know the pitfalls that can occur when reading them, especially if you haven't traded forex before.

Firstly, let's revise the basics of a forex trading as this relates directly to how to reade forex charts.

Each currency pair is always quoted in the same way. For example, the EURUSD currency pair is always as EURUSD, with the EUR being the base currency, and the USD being the terms currency, not the other way round with the USD first. Therefore if the chart of the EURUSD shows that the current price is fluctuating around 1.2155, this means that 1 EURO will buy around 1.2155 US dollars.

And your trade size (face value) is the amount of base currency that you're trading. In this example, if you want to buy 100 000 EURUSD, you're buying 100 000 EUROs.

Now let's have a look at the 5 important steps on how to read a forex chart:

1. If you buy the currency pair, that is, you're long the position, realise that you're looking for the chart of that currency pair to go up, to make a profit on the trade. That is, you want the base currency to strengthen against the terms currency.

On the other hand if you sell the currency pair to short the position, then you're looking for the chart of that currency pair to go down, to make a profit. That is, you want the base currency to weaken against the terms currency.

Pretty simple so far.

2. Always check the time frame displayed. Many trading systems will use multiple time frames to determine the entry of a trade. For example, a system may use a 4 hour and a 30 minute chart to determine the overall trend of the currency pair by using indicators such as MACD, momentum, or support and resistance lines, and then a 5 minute chart to look for a rise from a temporary dip to determine the actual entry.

So ensure that the chart you're looking at has the correct time frame for your analysis. The best way to do this is to set up your charts with the correct time frames and indicators on them for the system you're trading, and to save and reuse this layout.

3. On most forex charts, it is the BID price rather than the ask price that's displayed on the chart. Remember that a price is always quoted with a bid and an ask (or offer). For example, the current price of EURUSD may be 1.2055 bid and 1.2058 ask (or offer). When you buy, you buy at the ask, which is the higher of the 2 prices in the spread, and when you sell, you sell at the bid, which is the lower of the two prices.

If you use the chart price to determine an entry or exit, realise that when you place an order to sell when the chart price is say 1.330, then this is the price that you'll sell at assuming no slippage.

If on the other hand, you place an order to buy when the chart price is the same price, then you'll actually buy at 1.3333. A forex system will often determine whether your orders will be placed simply according to the chart price or whether you need to add a buffer when buying or selling.

Also note that on many platforms, when you're placing stop orders (to buy if the price rises above a certain price, or sell when the price falls below a certain price) you can select either "stop if bid" or "stop if offered".

4. Realise that the times shown on the bottom of forex charts are set to the particular time zone that the forex provider's charts are set to, be it GMT, New York time, or other time zones.

It's handy to have a world clock available on your computer desktop in order to convert the different time zones. This is important when you're trading major economic announcements.

You'll need to convert the time of an announcement to your local time, and the chart time, so you'll know when the announcement is going to happen, and therefore when you need to trade.

5. Finally, check whether the times on your forex charts corresponds to when the candle opens or when the candle closes. Your charting software may be different to someone else's in this way.

The reason I mention this, is that if you need to trade major economic announcements, either by entering a trade based on the movements that happen after the announcement, or to exit a trade before the announcement in avoid getting stopped out during it, then you need to be precise (to the minute!) as these trades are performed according to what happens at the 1 minute immediately after the announcement, not the candle afterwards!

So there you have it.

You now have the 5 essential keys to how to properly read forex charts, which will help you to avoid the common mistakes which many forex beginners make when looking at charts, and which will speed up your progress when you're looking at forex charting packages, and forex trading systems that you want to trade!

What Does Discipline Mean in Forex Trading?

Everybody has a different definition for discipline.  Most people think that discipline means seriousness in doing something. This is true but discipline has a wider meaning when it comes to forex trading.

In forex trading, discipline means following your trading system rules exactly and precisely. Over 95% of forex traders lose, not because they do not have a good trading system or they have not learned the techniques. They lose because they fail to follow their trading system rules. They lose because they have no discipline. When you ask them about the techniques, indicators and systems they use, they explain very well, but when you ask them about their performance and results, you will see that they are not profitable yet.

• Do you trade without setting a proper Stoploss?


• Do you make your stop loss wider when it is about to be triggered by the market?


• Do you trade everyday, even when there is no strong trade setup?


• Do you insist to take a position whenever you sit at the computer?


• Do you try a different trading strategy, time frame, indicator and… everyday?


• Do you take a position when you hear that someone else has the same position or some people say that a currency goes up/down against another currency?


• Do you close your positions before they hit the stop loss or target?


• Do you take too much risk?


• Do you overtrade?


• Do you overanalyze?


• Do you take a position because you need to make money?

If the answer of any of the above questions is positive, it means lack of discipline is your problem and you will keep on losing as long as you do not change yourself and you don’t trade like a disciplined trader. And finally you will give up and you will lose the chance of making money through forex trading for the rest of your life.

Who is a disciplined trader?

A disciplined trader…

• Has a well-developed and at the same time simple and practical system.


• Trades only when there is a strong and perfect trade setup. He doesn’t mind not to trade for several days. He is like a hunter. He doesn’t waste his bullets when he knows that the prey is not close enough.


• Doesn’t look for new trading systems everyday, because he has come to this conclusion long time ago that his own trading system is the best for him and he has the best result with it. He also knows that there is no Holly Grail system and “grass is not greener on the other side”.


• Sets a proper stop loss for each of his positions and never makes his stop loss wider when it is about to be triggered by the market.


• Never lets a profitable and nice trade to be converted to a losing position because of maximizing his profit and breaking the others’ records. He knows where he will be out as soon as he takes a position.


• Never tries to make a huge profit by taking too much risk. He is always loyal to his Risk/Reward and money management rules.


• Never gets upset when the market hits his “reasonable stop loss”.


• Never regrets when he misses a strong movement just because the trade setup that was formed before the movement, did not look strong and perfect enough.


• Doesn’t get overconfident when he achieves several winning trades or even several winning days, weeks, months and years.


• Doesn’t lose his confidence when he has a losing position, day or even week or month.


• Doesn’t take a position just because the others have the same position or he has read or heard from somewhere that a currency will go up/down against another currency.


• Doesn’t take any position based on his thoughts. He trades based on the signals that he sees on the charts.


• Doesn’t overanalyze.


• Doesn’t overtrade.


• Doesn’t see beyond obvious. He just sees the signal which is in front of his eyes.


• Is not greedy.


• Has no fear.


• Doesn’t exaggerate about his success.


• Is humble and helps the novice traders to find the right way easier. He never misleads the other traders, specially the novice ones. He is aware of “Karma”.


• Is…


• Doesn’t…


• Is…


• Doesn’t…

Are you such a person and trader or you are trying to make money through forex trading while you have not reached to such a level of confidence, discipline and personality?

Forex trading is not about the techniques and trading systems only. 90% of forex trading is related to the things that I explained above and this is what Forexoma members learn to achieve. They not only learn the techniques, but they learn to become a disciplined trader within the shortest time. I help them not to make the mistakes that 95% losing traders do, the mistakes that I also made when I started.

I tell them how I was about to give up at least for a few times, but I gave it one more try and finally I reached to the level that was described above

Hard-Working Versus Lazy Forex Traders..who are the best?

Everybody starts learning and trading forex at a different stage of his/her life. Almost all forex traders already had a full time job and forex trading is not the first job for all forex traders. It means we start learning and trading forex while we already have some experiences from the other jobs that we had and it is where the problem comes. Hardworking is one of the most important conditions in any job. The harder you work, the better result you get. But is this also true in forex trading?

The answer is no. In fact, forex trading is a job for lazy people. Hardworking in forex trading can be ended to loss. Forex trading is simpler than what we think, but we are used to make it really hard by trying to make money from a market that has not formed a trading opportunity yet. Based on our past experiences, we think we should spend several hours everyday in front of the computer, not to miss any trading opportunity. We also think that we should work with the smaller time frames to take the advantage of any up and down that the forex market has, but these are all wrong.

In forex trading, we should be smart but not hardworking. The only part in forex trading that can be considered as the hard part is that we analyze and monitor several currency pairs which is something that I agree, but spending several hours in front of the computer and analyzing the small time frames like 5min chart is not a good idea and will not make a living for you as a forex trader. Forex trading needs peace of mind and balance. When you spend so many hours at the computer waiting for the trade setups, you lose your balance and then you make mistake. Your mind realizes you that a trade setup is formed. You think you have predicted the direction of the market and as you do not want the hours that you have spent in front of the computer to go down the drain, you just take a position. Such a position is usually a losing position, because it is taken based on the emotions and illusions, not based on the signals and trade setups.

The bottom-line is if you like to cut your losses and become a profitable forex trader, you should work with the bigger time frames, you analyze the market for one hour everyday, if there is any forming trade setup, you set your alarm clock for the candlestick close and then come back and check the market to see if the trade setup is formed or it needs some more time

How to Trade Gold and USD Correlations??

Almost all forex traders know that Gold and US Dollar markets move against each others. It means when gold price goes down, USD goes up and visa versa. Therefore USD and gold are highly correlated and their correlation is even stronger and more reliable than the correlation that different currency pairs have. Now the question is if this strong correlation can be used in trading either gold or USD or both. The answer is yes. Gold and USD prices move against each other. When gold forms a buy signal, USD forms a sell signal, but the good thing is that sometimes the signals that one of them forms is ahead of the other one and so it can be used as a leading indicator to trade the other one.

The below chart shows the USD and gold price at the same time. As you see there are many cases that a support/resistance level breakout in gold is followed by a resistance/support level breakout on USD and visa versa. There are also many cases that they form an opposite signal almost at the same time, but even in those cases their signals can be used as confirmation to trade either gold or USD.



How to Trade Gold and USD Using the Gold-USD Correlation?

First, you have to open both gold and a USD cross currency pair (like USD-CHF) price charts on your trading platform at the same time. Both of the price charts have to be set to the same time frame, for example one hour. Then you have to analyze both of the price charts, based on the trading system that you have. For example I use support/resistance breakout. So all I have to do is finding a support/resistance line on one of the gold or USD-CHF price charts and waiting for the breakouts. Sometimes you can find a resistance line on gold, but you can not see any visible support line on USD-CHF. However, the resistance breakout on gold will be followed by a sell signal on USD-CHF and so when gold goes up, USD-CHF goes down. The resistance breakout on gold can be used as the confirmation of the sell signal on USD-CHF and visa versa. So you can trade any of them that you like, while you have a confirmation from the other one. Lets look at some examples.

On the below chart, a resistance breakout and so a buy signal formed on the gold one hour chart. While there is no special support line on USD-CHF price chart, it formed a strong sell signal by the candlesticks and went down strongly. Trade setups like this occur almost everyday on different time frames.



The below chart shows a case that a support breakout and so a sell signal formed on gold price chart, several hours before the resistance breakout on USD-CHF. A support breakout formed on gold 4 hours chart by 2010.01.12 20:00 candlestick. Although it went up to retest the broken support line, it finally formed a sell signal below the broken support line and also the Bollinger Middle Band by 2010.01.14 4:00 candlestick and started going down strongly. At the same time USD-CHF started going up too, but it broke above its only visible resistance line on the price chart, about 4 days after that.

Forex Books For Beginner.

Forex Books for Beginners

Here you will find the Forex e-books that provide the basic information on Forex trading. You can learn basic concepts of the Forex market, the technical and fundamental analysis. While all these e-books are recommended for every new Forex trader, they won't be very useful to the very experienced traders.

Almost all Forex e-books are in .pdf format. You'll need Adobe Acrobat Readerto open these e-books. Some of the e-books (those that are in parts) are zipped.

If you are the copyright owner of any of these e-books and don't want me to share them, please, contact me and I will gladly remove them.

Candlesticks For Support And Resistance — The basics of trading with candlesticks charts by John H. Forman.

Online Trading Courses — Course #1 lesson #1 by Jake Bernstein.

Commodity Futures Trading for Beginners — by Bruce Babcock.

Hidden Divergence — by Barbara Star, Ph.D.

Peaks and Troughs — by Martin J. Pring.

Reverse Divergences And Momentum — by Martin J. Pring.

Strategy:10 — Low-risk, high-return forex trading by W. R. Booker & Co.

The NYSE Tick Index And Candlesticks — by Tim Ord.

Trend Determination — A quick, accurate and effective methodology by John Hayden.

The Original Turtle Trading Rules — by OrignalTurtles.org.

Introduction to Forex — by 1st Forex Trading Academy. This trading course intends to provide to all of the students analytical tools on the trading system and methodologies. In this respect, the purpose of the course is to provide an overview of the many strategies that are being used in Forex market and to discuss the steps and tools that are needed in order to use these strategies successfully.

— by Scott Owens. A small e-book covering the basic and the main problems of Forex trading.

— by Royal Forex.

Forex. On-Line Manual for Successful Trading — an introduction into every aspect of the Forex trading including detailed descriptions of the technical and fundamental analysis techniques, by unknown author.

18 Trading Champions Share Their Keys to Top Trading Profits — as the name suggests, the book shares the secrets of the 18 prominent traders with the Forex beginners, by FWN.

The Way to Trade Forex — a 1st chapter of the book that will show you not only Forex basics but also some unusual techniques and strategies that can work for the newbie traders, by Jay Lakhani.

The Truth About Fibonacci Trading — the basic facts and information about Fibonacci levels and their application to the Forex trading, by Bill Poulos.

Quick Guide to Forex Trading — a 2008 edition of the Forex guide for the beginners and private traders.

Chart Patterns and Technical Indicators — an explanation of the most popular chart patterns and some technical indicators, by unknown author.

Characteristics of Murray Math Line for Trading....

Since, according to Gann, prices move in 1/8's, these 1/8's act as points of price support and resistance as an entity's price changes in time. Given this 1/8 characteristic of price action, Murrey assigns properties to each of the MML's in an a given octave. These properties are listed here for convenience.

8/8 th's and 0/8 th's Lines (Ultimate Resistance)

These lines are the hardest to penetrate on the way up, and give the greatest support on the way down. (Prices may never make it thru these lines).

7/8 th's Line (Weak, Stall and Reverse)

This line is weak. If prices run up too far too fast, and if they stall at this line they will reverse down fast. If prices do not stall at this line they will move up to the 8/8 th's line.

6/8 th's and 2/8 th's Lines (Pivot, Reverse)

These two lines are second only to the 4/8 th's line in their ability to force prices to reverse. This is true whether prices are moving up or down.

5/8 th's Line (Top of Trading Range)

The prices of all entities will spend 40% of the time moving between the 5/8 th's and 3/8 th's lines. If prices move above the 5/8 th's line and stay above it for 10 to 12 days, the entity is said to be selling at a premium to what one wants to pay for it and prices will tend to stay above this line in the "premium area". If, however, prices fall below the 5/8 th's line then they will tend to fall further looking for support at a lower level.

4/8 th's Line (Major Support/Resistance)

This line provides the greatest amount of support and resistance. This line has the greatest support when prices are above it and the greatest resistance when prices are below it. This price level is the best level to sell and buy against.

3/8 th's Line (Bottom of Trading Range)

If prices are below this line and moving upwards, this line is difficult to penetrate. If prices penetrate above this line and stay above this line for 10 to 12 days then prices will stay above this line and spend 40% of the time moving between this line and the 5/8 th's line.

1/8 th Line (Weak, Stall and Reverse)

This line is weak. If prices run down too far too fast, and if they stall at this line they will reverse up fast. If prices do not stall at this line they will move down to the 0/8 th's line.

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Murrey Math Line X

Murrey Math Line X MetaTrader indicator — a pivot line indicator that will definitely help every trader that know how to trade with support, resistance and pivot lines. It displays 8 different lines (with possible additional lines) on the main chart, helping you to find the best points to sell, buy and exit the positions.

Input parameters:

• P (default = 64) — period in bars or in other periods (set by MMPeriod), on which the lines will be calculated. The lower is the number the more current but less accurate calculations will be.


• MMPeriod (default = 1440) — a basic period in minutes (60 — for hourly pivots, 1440 — for daily pivots, 10080 — for weekly and 43200 — for monthly); if greater than zero, indicator will use P amount of MMPeriod minutes to calculate its lines. If zero, indicator will use P amount of the current chart bars to calculate its lines.


• StepBack (default = 0) — a shift back for calculating the lines (in the current bars or in number of MMPeriod (if set) minutes).


• Other parameters — affect only visual parameters of the lines.

It's easy to use Murrey Math Line X. 0/8P and 8/8P lines are the ultimate resistance and support lines — they are very hard to break. 1/8P and 7/8P lines are weak support and resistance lines, but if the price stopped near them, it will reverse and change direction. 2/8P and 6/8P lines are strong reverse points. 3/8P and 5/8P are the bottom and the top of the average trading range respectively; it is very likely that the price will either pierce this range fast or will remain inside it for a long time. 4/8P is a major support and resistance line; sell and buy when the price crosses it for a certain profit. The blue arrow marks the final calculated bar.

Downloads:

Murrey Math Line X in .zip

Murrey Math Line X in .mq4