GBP/JPY continued to stay in converging range last week. The development argues that such range trading is part of the whole corrective rise from 126.73 only and such rise is not completed yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week. Break of 135.99 will target 61.8% retracement of 145.94 to 126.73 at 138.60 and above. On the downside, break of 131.23 will revive the case that recovery from 126.73 has completed already and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting this low.
In the bigger picture, the choppy nature of the fall from 163.05 is mixing up the outlook a bit. But in any case, such decline is still in progress as long as 145.94 resistance holds and further fall should be seen to retest 118.18 low first. Break will confirm that whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 has resumed for 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06 next, which is close to 100 psychological level. However, break of 145.94 will indicate that fall fro 163.05 is finished. Also, this will suggest that such fall is merely the second wave of the whole consolidation pattern from 118.81 and will bring another rise to 163.05 and above before resuming the longer term down trend.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Note that the fall from 215.87 is not treated as the fifth wave, but the third wave inside the third wave that started at 241.35. Another long term decline is still expected after completion of the correction from 118.81.
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Friday, July 9, 2010
GBP/USD Is Range Bound– Will it Fall?
GBP/USD is trading in an almost perfect range in the past week. The longer the range – the stronger the explosion, but in which direction? Here are some reasons for it to go down.
Last Friday, GBP/USD enjoyed the weak Non-Farm Payrolls in the US to rise to new levels. Since then, it has traded in an almost perfect range – from 1.5080 to 1.5240. This 160 pip range saw three tops and three bottom throughout the week, without breaking out. But the situation doesn’t look good for the Pound:
Recent economic data is mostly negative. British Services PMI disappointed with a drop to 54.4 points, worse than expected. Halifax HPI, which shows the change in house prices, fell by 0.6% instead of rising by the same scale. Manufacturing Production fell short of expectations as it rose by only 0.3%, and last month’s drop was revised – 0.8% instead of 0.8% – double.
But the biggest disappointment came from interest rate issues. First, the Bank of England didn’t raise the rates. While this was the consensus, this came after we saw that one member voted to raise the rates last month – Andrew Sentance’s vote came on rising inflation that missed the government’s target month by month.
The decision not to raise the rates was later backed with the PPI figures – producer prices dropped last month by 0.2% when expectations stood on a rise of 0.1%. So, maybe the inflationary pressures aren’t too strong?
Similar to the Euro, it seems that the British Pound mostly enjoyed the US dollar’s weakness rather than its own strength. A drop will find immediate support at 1.5050, followed by 1.4870 and 1.4780. A breakout to the upside will meet resistance at 1.5350, followed by 1.5530 and 1.5833.
Last Friday, GBP/USD enjoyed the weak Non-Farm Payrolls in the US to rise to new levels. Since then, it has traded in an almost perfect range – from 1.5080 to 1.5240. This 160 pip range saw three tops and three bottom throughout the week, without breaking out. But the situation doesn’t look good for the Pound:
Recent economic data is mostly negative. British Services PMI disappointed with a drop to 54.4 points, worse than expected. Halifax HPI, which shows the change in house prices, fell by 0.6% instead of rising by the same scale. Manufacturing Production fell short of expectations as it rose by only 0.3%, and last month’s drop was revised – 0.8% instead of 0.8% – double.
But the biggest disappointment came from interest rate issues. First, the Bank of England didn’t raise the rates. While this was the consensus, this came after we saw that one member voted to raise the rates last month – Andrew Sentance’s vote came on rising inflation that missed the government’s target month by month.
The decision not to raise the rates was later backed with the PPI figures – producer prices dropped last month by 0.2% when expectations stood on a rise of 0.1%. So, maybe the inflationary pressures aren’t too strong?
Similar to the Euro, it seems that the British Pound mostly enjoyed the US dollar’s weakness rather than its own strength. A drop will find immediate support at 1.5050, followed by 1.4870 and 1.4780. A breakout to the upside will meet resistance at 1.5350, followed by 1.5530 and 1.5833.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
EUR/USD Pusing Forward to Touch 1.27..
EUR/USD continued pushing forward and touched 1.27. At this point, it seems that the heights aren’t easy for the pair, that still carries debt issues and gloomy forecasts. Update on this pair.
Euro/Dollar continued the trend that began with the weak Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday and gradually edged up during the week – from the support line of 1.2460, it rose in waves and reached 1.2702, breaking 30 pips above the 1.2672 peak it reached on May 21, in the recovery rally that followed the turmoil.
So, at this point, the highest since the beginning of May, the pair seems exhausted. EUR/USD fell back down to 1.2660 after reaching the new highs. The break seems false and the next line of resistance, 1.2880 is out of reach. 1.2880 was a support line in May 2009.
Below 1.2460, support appears at 1.2330, 1.2250 and most importantly 1.2150. Above, 1.3110 is the next resistance line.
Reasons for Euro rally
The recent Euro rally came on top of weak economic figures in the US, and especially the Non-Farm Payrolls, that disappointed two months in a row. The sentiment is that the US economic recovery is much weaker than expected, meaning low interest rates for a very extended period of time. With a weak US economy, how can the dollar rise?
But there’s something else: the risk factor. The Euro didn’t rally on its own strength, but on US weakness. US weakness is global weakness, and this will eventually trigger risk aversive trading.
The situation in the Euro-zone isn’t good. The European teams might be good football / soccer, but their economies aren’t doing well.
Top economists say that the worst is yet to come:
When fear will return to the markets, the Euro will suffer. The dollar and the yen will rise. So, if you’re enjoying this current risk rally, you better watch out before the tables turn once again.
Euro/Dollar continued the trend that began with the weak Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday and gradually edged up during the week – from the support line of 1.2460, it rose in waves and reached 1.2702, breaking 30 pips above the 1.2672 peak it reached on May 21, in the recovery rally that followed the turmoil.
So, at this point, the highest since the beginning of May, the pair seems exhausted. EUR/USD fell back down to 1.2660 after reaching the new highs. The break seems false and the next line of resistance, 1.2880 is out of reach. 1.2880 was a support line in May 2009.
Below 1.2460, support appears at 1.2330, 1.2250 and most importantly 1.2150. Above, 1.3110 is the next resistance line.
Reasons for Euro rally
The recent Euro rally came on top of weak economic figures in the US, and especially the Non-Farm Payrolls, that disappointed two months in a row. The sentiment is that the US economic recovery is much weaker than expected, meaning low interest rates for a very extended period of time. With a weak US economy, how can the dollar rise?
But there’s something else: the risk factor. The Euro didn’t rally on its own strength, but on US weakness. US weakness is global weakness, and this will eventually trigger risk aversive trading.
The situation in the Euro-zone isn’t good. The European teams might be good football / soccer, but their economies aren’t doing well.
Top economists say that the worst is yet to come:
Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto, said the euro will depreciate to $1.13 in the third quarter, $1.08 by year-end and may near $1 in 2011 before recovering. Osborne, whose predictions were within 4.1 percent of the mark on average, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, was echoed by the nine following most-accurate forecasters in anticipating a lower euro in the next two quarters.
When fear will return to the markets, the Euro will suffer. The dollar and the yen will rise. So, if you’re enjoying this current risk rally, you better watch out before the tables turn once again.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Forecast (June 28-July 2 2010)
The troubled Euro expects inflation and employment figures in the upcoming week. Here’s an outlook for the events that will move the Euro, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
In the past week, the Euro got a positive indicator from the German Ifo Business Climate, but the impact was very limited. This week has more significant indicators. Let’s begin:
- German CPI: Published on Monday. After showing some signs of picking up, inflation returned to normal in the past two months, rising by 0.1% last month, after a drop in the same small scale beforehand. The initial version of the CPI is collected from the various German states throughout the day. A small rise is expected this time.
- M3 Money Supply: Published on Monday at 8:00 GMT. The amount of money in circulation usually rises, but the drop seen in the past 3 months is another evidence of less economic activity and an upcoming double-dip recession. Another drop of 0.1% is expected this time.
- German Unemployment Change: Published on Wednesday at 7:55 GMT. This important figure shows that Germany continues to be the locomotive of the Euro-zone. The number of unemployed people squeezed by 45,000 people, for a third month in a row. Another small drop is expected now. Note that the actual figure was usually better than early forecasts.
- CPI Flash Estimate: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Following Germany’s first release for the inflation figures, the figure for the whole continent is also published. The annualized level of inflation rose to 1.6% last month – still under control. Only a jump above 2% could be significant for the Euro, and this isn’t expected now.
- Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The all-European unemployment rate is very problematic – 10.1%. The area of 10% has been with us for the past 7 months and this isn’t about to change. Any rise will be a burden on the Euro, and only a fall to a single digit figure will boost the common currency.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Euro began the week by descending from a failed attempt to break above 1.2460, and eventually dropped below 1.2330. A false break under 1.2250 was followed by a jump, and the pair closed at 1.2375.
The Euro’s range is 1.2330 to 1.2460. Note that more lines were added on last week’s outlook. The trading ranges of the pair are more narrow now.
Above the strong line of 1.2460, a minor resistance line appears at 1.2520, which was a swing low when the pair was dropping from higher levels. Higher, 1.2670 provides strong resistance, being the highest level in over a month.
Higher, 1.2880 is the next minor line, followed by 1.3114, which was tested from both directions, but that’s quite far now.
Looking down, the Lehman levels at 1.2330 continue to play a small role. The next level of support is at 1.2250, which the pair failed to break in the past week. 1.2150 is a very strong line – it held the pair for some time, and when it collapsed, the fall was quite strong.
1.20 is a round number eyed by many, so it provides further support, and the last line is 1.1876, the year-to-date low.
I remain neutral on Euro/Dollar.
As mentioned last week, range trading indeed continued for another week. Given the looming double dip recession, the European debt issues and risk aversive trading due to slowdown in the US as well, the long term sees further drops. But for now, the narrowing ranges are still with us.
AUD/USD Weekly Technical Forecast (June 28-July 2 2010)
Retail Sales as well as building approvals are the highlights in a busy Australian week. Will the Aussie continue north? Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The Chinese move on the yuan is great for Australia, that exports commodities to China. With a stronger yuan, the Chinese can buy more. As the dust settled from this move, the political problems in Australia hurt the Aussie. With the new Prime Minister sworn in, the focus returns to fundamentals:
- HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. The Housing Industry Association showed a bit leap in prices last month – 6.2%. This comes despite the rate hikes that partially cooled the Australian housing sector. A smaller rise is expected this time.
- MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT. The official inflation figures are released only once a quarter. So, this unofficial release from the Melbourne Institute tends to moves the Aussie. After rises of 0.4% or 0.5% in recent months, a weaker rise in prices is predicted this time.
- Private Sector Credit: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. More lending means more economic activity, but last month’s small rise of 0.2% was quite disappointing for the Aussie. This followed 4 stronger months. A return to higher growth rates will probably be reported by the RBA this time.
- AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Wednesday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group publishes a PMI-like indicator that has been above 50 in the past 5 months. This means expectations for economic expansion. The drop from the high 59.8 points to 56.3 last month is expected to be followed by a stable number this time.
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. China is Australia’s main trade partner. Growth in Chinese manufacturing translates into more imports from Australia. After peaking at 55.7 points, this Chinese indicator fell to 53.9 points this time. A rise is expected this time.
- Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. This major consumer-related indicator rose by 0.6% last month, showing confidence for a second month in a row, despite the rate hikes. A smaller rise is expected this time.
- Commodity Prices: Published on Thursday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity-oriented economy enjoyed a recovery in commodity prices in June. This will be reflected in this indicator that is expected to show a year-over-year growth rate of over 50%, boosting the Aussie.
- Building Approvals: Published on Friday at 1:30 GMT. This indicator is very volatile, and tends to have a strong impact on the Aussie. A drop of almost 15% was reported in approvals last month, but this was merely a correction for a 17% rise beforehand. A rise in approvals will empower the Aussie.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie’s crazy week began with a temporary jump above 0.8735 and then 0.88, but this changed quickly. The pair deteriorated quickly and dipped below 0.86 before recovering and settling slightly higher than last week – at 0.8741. Note that most lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook.
Looking up, 0.88 continues to be a minor line of resistance, and the break above it was false. Higher, 0.90 is a round psychological number and also was a swing low in March.
Higher, 0.9135 was a very strong line of support when the pair was trading higher, and now works as resistance. The next important line far above is 0.9327, which was a strong line of resistance many times in the past.
Looking down, immediate support is found at 0.8735, which was December’s low, and worked as a line of resistance in the previous week. Lower, 0.8360 was a pivotal line a few weeks ago.
Lower, 0.8240 was a strong resistance line in 2009 and worked when the pair was trading lower recently. Below, the year-to-date low of 0.8066 provides strong support. That’s quite far now.
I remain bullish on the Aussie.
The political crisis that rocked the Aussie is over, with a new Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, quickly assuming office. With the revaluation of the Chinese yuan, a high interest rate and strong economy, the Australian dollar continues to have good reasons to rise.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Technical Analysis for Beginners. Dow Theory
In general, technical analysis can be defined as a method of price prediction based on mathematical calculations instead of economic reports. This method has been created for applicable needs in getting profit on stock and currency market. Initially technical analysis was divided into several techniques and only in the 70-ths all these methods were united into an integral approach with common psychology, axioms and ruling principles.
Technical analysis is a way to forecast probable price movement with the help of market movement charts reflecting the history of fluctuations. Practical usage of technical analysis determines several axioms.
Axiom 1
Every price formation factor, - economical, political, psychological has been taken into account and reflected on the chart. Once news is issued, market prices will move to reflect this new information.
Axiom 2
Price movement has got its direction. This suggestion has become a basis in all the techniques of technical analysis. The main purpose of technical analysis is defining of probable rate movement (trends in other words) and to apply acquired knowledge in trading. The definition given by Dow says that during bullish trend each consequent peak and fall is higher than the previous one. This suggestion is the main fundamental principle of technical analysis. Trends are classified into three types: bullish (upside movement), bearish (downside movement) and sideway trading (the price remains practically unchanged). Each of the given types is rarely encountered in its pure form, as straight price actions occur not very often in the market.
A certain trend is seen until some signs delivering opposite direction appear. According to Dow, trends exist in spite of market noise. However, in real practice it is not easy to determine whether a reversal is a starting point for a new trend or just a temporary movement. Contemporary technical tools permit traders to define it with easy, however, different traders interpret trend signals differently.
Axiom 3
Analysts predict if a certain rule worked in the past, this rule may be applicable in future as the price is formed mostly due to human psychology. These are the main fundamental ideas of technical analysis:
Rate takes everything into account, therefore, everything needed to master this field is to study price charts. The aim is to find out trends at their initial phases, to recognize a trend and to use the knowledge in further development making right decisions. And the last idea is that if something worked in the past, it will probably work in future.
The Dow theory denotes the "main movement", the "medium swing" and the "short swing". The "main movement" is a prevailing component as it may last for several years. The "medium swing" is a correction to the main movement and should last from ten days to three months. The "short swing" or minor movement fluctuations may last up to three weeks.
According to the theory market moving averages must confirm each other and every thend should be confirmed by volume. Dow assumed that volume confirmed every price trend.
Many modern technical analysts treat Dow Theory's definition of a trend as the main basics of contemporary technical analysis.
Technical analysis is a way to forecast probable price movement with the help of market movement charts reflecting the history of fluctuations. Practical usage of technical analysis determines several axioms.
Axiom 1
Every price formation factor, - economical, political, psychological has been taken into account and reflected on the chart. Once news is issued, market prices will move to reflect this new information.
Axiom 2
Price movement has got its direction. This suggestion has become a basis in all the techniques of technical analysis. The main purpose of technical analysis is defining of probable rate movement (trends in other words) and to apply acquired knowledge in trading. The definition given by Dow says that during bullish trend each consequent peak and fall is higher than the previous one. This suggestion is the main fundamental principle of technical analysis. Trends are classified into three types: bullish (upside movement), bearish (downside movement) and sideway trading (the price remains practically unchanged). Each of the given types is rarely encountered in its pure form, as straight price actions occur not very often in the market.
A certain trend is seen until some signs delivering opposite direction appear. According to Dow, trends exist in spite of market noise. However, in real practice it is not easy to determine whether a reversal is a starting point for a new trend or just a temporary movement. Contemporary technical tools permit traders to define it with easy, however, different traders interpret trend signals differently.
Axiom 3
Analysts predict if a certain rule worked in the past, this rule may be applicable in future as the price is formed mostly due to human psychology. These are the main fundamental ideas of technical analysis:
Rate takes everything into account, therefore, everything needed to master this field is to study price charts. The aim is to find out trends at their initial phases, to recognize a trend and to use the knowledge in further development making right decisions. And the last idea is that if something worked in the past, it will probably work in future.
The Dow theory denotes the "main movement", the "medium swing" and the "short swing". The "main movement" is a prevailing component as it may last for several years. The "medium swing" is a correction to the main movement and should last from ten days to three months. The "short swing" or minor movement fluctuations may last up to three weeks.
According to the theory market moving averages must confirm each other and every thend should be confirmed by volume. Dow assumed that volume confirmed every price trend.
Many modern technical analysts treat Dow Theory's definition of a trend as the main basics of contemporary technical analysis.
Related Blogs
Fundamental Analysis On Forex Trading
It has become imperative for every forex trader to learn how to predict the price trend and which method or software is the best.
When you do forex trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on money policy, government policy and economic indicators such as GDP, exports, imports etc within a business cycle framework while technical analysis focuses on price action and market behavior, especially on chart and technical indicators.
Needless to say both schools are equally disparaging about the other, and both believe their techniques are infinitely superior. But the reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on the various signals derived from the price action on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or the myriad of societal issues that influence prices.
Generally speaking, fundamental analysis can only judge which direction the market will move, and technical analysis can supply both direction and rough currency rate.
Keeping in mind that the financial underpinnings of any country, trading bloc or multinational industry takes into account many factors, including social, political and economic influences, staying on top of an extremely fluid fundamental picture can be challenging. Meanwhile, forecasting models are as numerous and varied as the traders and market buffs that create them. Different people can look at the exact same data and come up with two completely different conclusions about how the market will be influenced by it. At the end, some may make huge profit and some lose their money. You can not say fundamental analysis is easy.
Remember, fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. For example, when analyzing an economist's forecast of the upcoming GDP or employment report, you begin to get a fairly clear picture of the general health of the economy and the forces at work behind it. However, you'll need to come up with a precise method as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.
Tip: If you are new to do forex trading and do not trade frequently, you can mainly use fundamental analysis for your trading.
Don't disturb yourself by information overload. Sometimes traders fall into this trap and are unable to pull the trigger on a trade. Normally, your first feel is the answer for you to do forex trading. At that time, you are sure which currency is strong and which country's economy is good. The more simple, the more useful.
However, trading a particular market without knowing a great deal about the exact nature of its underlying elements is unbelievable. You might get lucky and snare a few on occasion but it's not the best approach over the long haul.
For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is very important to understand fundamental analysis and use them on forex trading.
When you do forex trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on money policy, government policy and economic indicators such as GDP, exports, imports etc within a business cycle framework while technical analysis focuses on price action and market behavior, especially on chart and technical indicators.
Needless to say both schools are equally disparaging about the other, and both believe their techniques are infinitely superior. But the reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on the various signals derived from the price action on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or the myriad of societal issues that influence prices.
Generally speaking, fundamental analysis can only judge which direction the market will move, and technical analysis can supply both direction and rough currency rate.
Keeping in mind that the financial underpinnings of any country, trading bloc or multinational industry takes into account many factors, including social, political and economic influences, staying on top of an extremely fluid fundamental picture can be challenging. Meanwhile, forecasting models are as numerous and varied as the traders and market buffs that create them. Different people can look at the exact same data and come up with two completely different conclusions about how the market will be influenced by it. At the end, some may make huge profit and some lose their money. You can not say fundamental analysis is easy.
Remember, fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. For example, when analyzing an economist's forecast of the upcoming GDP or employment report, you begin to get a fairly clear picture of the general health of the economy and the forces at work behind it. However, you'll need to come up with a precise method as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.
Tip: If you are new to do forex trading and do not trade frequently, you can mainly use fundamental analysis for your trading.
Don't disturb yourself by information overload. Sometimes traders fall into this trap and are unable to pull the trigger on a trade. Normally, your first feel is the answer for you to do forex trading. At that time, you are sure which currency is strong and which country's economy is good. The more simple, the more useful.
However, trading a particular market without knowing a great deal about the exact nature of its underlying elements is unbelievable. You might get lucky and snare a few on occasion but it's not the best approach over the long haul.
For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is very important to understand fundamental analysis and use them on forex trading.
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FOREX Fundamental Analysis Defination with Description.
Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.
Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.
Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.
Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.
There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.
There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.
Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.
Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.
International Trade - If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.
The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.
In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.
Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.
Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.
Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.
There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.
There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.
Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.
Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.
International Trade - If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.
The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.
In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.
Related Blogs
Forex Charts - Make Bigger Profits by Following These Key Points
Forex charts are a great, time efficient and proven way to make bigger profits but most traders don't use them correctly and here we will give you some key points to help you make bigger profits...
Let's look at some key points for more profitable technical analysis with forex charts.
If you look at any forex chart you will see big trends that can last for many months and trend following these can be very profitable and if you want to make money out of them you must understand this key fact:
Most big trends start and continue from breakouts to new highs and lows on the chart and you must go with these breaks - most traders don't. They want to wait for the pullback and of course it never comes and they are left behind. While it appears like you have missed the first part of the move, the odds of continuation are high so go with them.
Always be patient when using forex charts. You don't get rewarded for your efforts or how many times you trade but being right with your trading signal. I know traders who trade just a few times a month yet make triple digit gains - so wait for the right opportunities.
When you have a trend you want to hit always check price momentum is on your side and make sure that you use momentum indicators that show price acceleration in the direction you wish to trade. Two great ones, you can learn, in about 30 minutes are - the stochastic and RSI. These two combined will increase your odds of success by getting the odds more on your side.
Never believe anyone who tells you there is a mathematical formula for market movement - there isn't. If of course there was, we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market. So forget trying to predict and only trade the reality of price.
Its probabilities that you need to understand and like a successful poker player, you won't win every hand - but if you keep trading the odds, you will win long term. When using forex charts, the simpler your forex trading method the better, as simple systems tend to be very robust and have fewer elements to break, than complicated ones.
I have used a simple breakout method which uses trend lines, RSI and the stochastic and made money with it for over 20 years sure, it's simple but it works. Forex charts give you the reality of price before your eyes and you can spot areas of over valuation and under valuation. Humans create trends and they also (due to their emotions) push trends to far up or down in either direction.
You can of course ride trends - but you will also see big price spikes and history tells you they don't last long and taking trades contrary to the majority can be very profitable. Charting is an art not a science and you need to practice your art. The successful captain of a ship uses charts to navigate safely, but he also knows that use them wrongly and he will drown and it's a very similar situation in forex.
The Good News
You can learn forex charting in around 2 weeks and soon be piling up big profits in around 30 minutes a day spotting and hitting high odds trades and enjoying great profits. The good news is forex trading and using technical analysis is a learned skill and one you can master with a little practice.
Let's look at some key points for more profitable technical analysis with forex charts.
If you look at any forex chart you will see big trends that can last for many months and trend following these can be very profitable and if you want to make money out of them you must understand this key fact:
Most big trends start and continue from breakouts to new highs and lows on the chart and you must go with these breaks - most traders don't. They want to wait for the pullback and of course it never comes and they are left behind. While it appears like you have missed the first part of the move, the odds of continuation are high so go with them.
Always be patient when using forex charts. You don't get rewarded for your efforts or how many times you trade but being right with your trading signal. I know traders who trade just a few times a month yet make triple digit gains - so wait for the right opportunities.
When you have a trend you want to hit always check price momentum is on your side and make sure that you use momentum indicators that show price acceleration in the direction you wish to trade. Two great ones, you can learn, in about 30 minutes are - the stochastic and RSI. These two combined will increase your odds of success by getting the odds more on your side.
Never believe anyone who tells you there is a mathematical formula for market movement - there isn't. If of course there was, we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market. So forget trying to predict and only trade the reality of price.
Its probabilities that you need to understand and like a successful poker player, you won't win every hand - but if you keep trading the odds, you will win long term. When using forex charts, the simpler your forex trading method the better, as simple systems tend to be very robust and have fewer elements to break, than complicated ones.
I have used a simple breakout method which uses trend lines, RSI and the stochastic and made money with it for over 20 years sure, it's simple but it works. Forex charts give you the reality of price before your eyes and you can spot areas of over valuation and under valuation. Humans create trends and they also (due to their emotions) push trends to far up or down in either direction.
You can of course ride trends - but you will also see big price spikes and history tells you they don't last long and taking trades contrary to the majority can be very profitable. Charting is an art not a science and you need to practice your art. The successful captain of a ship uses charts to navigate safely, but he also knows that use them wrongly and he will drown and it's a very similar situation in forex.
The Good News
You can learn forex charting in around 2 weeks and soon be piling up big profits in around 30 minutes a day spotting and hitting high odds trades and enjoying great profits. The good news is forex trading and using technical analysis is a learned skill and one you can master with a little practice.
Famous Posts
Technical Analysis: Colors on the Canvas of Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis is the canvas and Technical Analysis is the colors on it. Trade with the combination and you can have the beautiful painting or shall we say a healthy bank account?:)
Market moves because of Fundamental factors, Psychological aspects and sentiments. For short term trading the later two i.e. psychology and sentiments play a big role. Short term trading is not just the fundamental analysis but the analysis of how various trading floors are thinking and behaving. Technical indicators help us analyzing the market-mood by analyzing how the market is moving. Technical indicators also become very important as the traders on the big trading floors also make their trading decisions based on the same indicators. But then when everyone is following more or less the same technical indicators for trading decisions then everyone should be making money? Well, the indicator would show a different picture if you are using a 30-minute chart or a daily chart. The skills lie in comparing different charts of different periods and then making your analysis.
Technical indicators in Technical Analysis help us in analyzing the following:
1) Trend of the market: Whether there is an uptrend or downtrend or whether the market is moving sideways or without a trend.
2) If market has a trend then whether the trend is strong and hence offer us the opportunity to enter the market in the direction of its movement? What it means is if there is a uptrend which is strong then we can still buy but if there is an uptrend but it’s getting weaker then the market direction may reverse.
3) If the market is running sideways or in range then at what point we should buy and at what point we should sell or short-sell.
Technical analysis is broken into two main categories:
a) Chart patterns/trend lines (visual)
and
b) Indicators (mathematical)
An over view of some important Technical Indicators:
SAR (Stop and Reversal):
• To determine whether a trend is ending and/or a new trend may start.
Bollinger Bands:
• To measure market’s volatility.
• To Give buying /selling signals during non-trending /sideways market.
• To Have an idea when the market may enter into a trend while running sideways.
MACD:
• To identify a new trend
Stochastic:
• To identify where a trend might be ending and/or a new trend may start (indicating over bought/oversold levels)
RSI:
• To identify whether a trend might be ending and/or a new trend may start (over bought /over sold levels).
• RSI also can be used to confirm trend formations.
Moving Average:
• To know resistance and support in sideways market
• To identify trend reversal
ADX:
• To know the strength of the trend
Fibonacci:
• To know the probable support and resistance levels.
Market moves because of Fundamental factors, Psychological aspects and sentiments. For short term trading the later two i.e. psychology and sentiments play a big role. Short term trading is not just the fundamental analysis but the analysis of how various trading floors are thinking and behaving. Technical indicators help us analyzing the market-mood by analyzing how the market is moving. Technical indicators also become very important as the traders on the big trading floors also make their trading decisions based on the same indicators. But then when everyone is following more or less the same technical indicators for trading decisions then everyone should be making money? Well, the indicator would show a different picture if you are using a 30-minute chart or a daily chart. The skills lie in comparing different charts of different periods and then making your analysis.
Technical indicators in Technical Analysis help us in analyzing the following:
1) Trend of the market: Whether there is an uptrend or downtrend or whether the market is moving sideways or without a trend.
2) If market has a trend then whether the trend is strong and hence offer us the opportunity to enter the market in the direction of its movement? What it means is if there is a uptrend which is strong then we can still buy but if there is an uptrend but it’s getting weaker then the market direction may reverse.
3) If the market is running sideways or in range then at what point we should buy and at what point we should sell or short-sell.
Technical analysis is broken into two main categories:
a) Chart patterns/trend lines (visual)
and
b) Indicators (mathematical)
An over view of some important Technical Indicators:
SAR (Stop and Reversal):
• To determine whether a trend is ending and/or a new trend may start.
Bollinger Bands:
• To measure market’s volatility.
• To Give buying /selling signals during non-trending /sideways market.
• To Have an idea when the market may enter into a trend while running sideways.
MACD:
• To identify a new trend
Stochastic:
• To identify where a trend might be ending and/or a new trend may start (indicating over bought/oversold levels)
RSI:
• To identify whether a trend might be ending and/or a new trend may start (over bought /over sold levels).
• RSI also can be used to confirm trend formations.
Moving Average:
• To know resistance and support in sideways market
• To identify trend reversal
ADX:
• To know the strength of the trend
Fibonacci:
• To know the probable support and resistance levels.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
EUR/USD Weekly Technical Analysis (June 7-11 2010)
The troubled Euro, hit by Hungary and risk aversive trading following the Non-Farm Payrolls, is facing a busy week, with the rate decision being the climax. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it.
No matter how the debt issues are handled, it now seems clear that the Euro-zone, either united or split, is facing a double dip recession. Austerity measures will take their toll on the economies, and the Euro as well. As European leaders are lowering their tone, the indicators return to play an important role. Let’s start:
Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT. LAst month, this important indicator perfectly reflected the economic turmoil, in real time. This survey of 2,000 analysts and investors turned negative – from +2.5 to -6.4. A negative figure means pessimism. This pessimism is expected to weaken this time, with a rise to -3.4 points.
German Factory Orders: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. Europe’s largest economy enjoyed a huge leap in factory orders in the last release. A small correction is expected this time – 0.1%. Note that the figure relates to April, and that the report for May will probably be worse.
German Industrial Production: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. Complementing the factory orders figure, industrial production in Germany also made a significant jump last time – 4%, but is expected to continue rising this time as well, by 0.7%. The result of the factory orders will probably indicate the direction of this figure as well.
German Final CPI: Published on Thursday at 6:00 GMT. It seemed that prices were picking up in Europe, led by its largest economy. But last month already saw them cooling down, with a drop of 0.1%. This release will probably confirm another calm month, with a rise of only 0.1%, as initially reported.
French Industrial Production: Published on Thursday at 6:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy also enjoyed nice growth in its industrial production last month – a rise of 1%. Growth is expected to accelerate this month – 1.2%. While there are talks of a credit downgrade for France as well, its economy is rather strong.
Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet isn’t expected to change the European Minimum Bid Rate. Yet again, he’s expected to leave it unchanged at 1%. A small rise in inflation put some pressure for a rate hike, but the rise in prices isn’t too strong. On the other hand, the dire situation in the Euro-zone prompts slashing the rates, but the ECB isn’t too keen on such a move. The focus will be on the ECB Press Conference, where hints about future policy and remarks about the current situation will be closely watched.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The “Lehman levels” at 1.2330 capped EUR/USD during the week, as it traded between this line and last week’s low of 1.2142. On Friday, this range trading was broken, as the pair collapsed below this support line and closed under 1.20, at 1.1968.
Lower support lines were added on last week’s outlook. The current range is between 1.20, which is a round number eyed by many, and 1.1820, which was a support line back in 2006.
Looking down, the next line of support is at 1.17. This is a symbolic number – this is the level that the Euro launched at, in 1999, as an interbank currency, before there were euro coins and bills. Below, 1.1630 – this was the bottom in November 2005, and now provides strong support.
A drop below this line sends the Euro back to levels last seen in 2003. Minor support is found at 1.1560, followed by stronger support at 1.1370. Even lower, 1.11 is the next support line, serving as both a support and resistance line back at the beginning of 2003, 7 years ago.
Looking up above 1.20, the next line of resistance is at 1.2142, the former resistance line. This is followed by 1.2330 mentioned earlier.
Higher, 1.2460 is a strong line of resistance, capping the pair a few weeks ago. The next line is at 1.2670, which was a swing high. There are many more resistance line above, but they’re quite far at the moment.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.
Yes, the Euro already lost a lot of ground, and some may say it’s oversold. But these falls are backed by an unstoppable flood of bad news. In the past week, it was Hungary, which compared itself to Greece. More debt black holes will probably be discovered, pushing the Euro lower.
EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it.
No matter how the debt issues are handled, it now seems clear that the Euro-zone, either united or split, is facing a double dip recession. Austerity measures will take their toll on the economies, and the Euro as well. As European leaders are lowering their tone, the indicators return to play an important role. Let’s start:
Sentix Investor Confidence: Published on Monday at 8:30 GMT. LAst month, this important indicator perfectly reflected the economic turmoil, in real time. This survey of 2,000 analysts and investors turned negative – from +2.5 to -6.4. A negative figure means pessimism. This pessimism is expected to weaken this time, with a rise to -3.4 points.
German Factory Orders: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. Europe’s largest economy enjoyed a huge leap in factory orders in the last release. A small correction is expected this time – 0.1%. Note that the figure relates to April, and that the report for May will probably be worse.
German Industrial Production: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. Complementing the factory orders figure, industrial production in Germany also made a significant jump last time – 4%, but is expected to continue rising this time as well, by 0.7%. The result of the factory orders will probably indicate the direction of this figure as well.
German Final CPI: Published on Thursday at 6:00 GMT. It seemed that prices were picking up in Europe, led by its largest economy. But last month already saw them cooling down, with a drop of 0.1%. This release will probably confirm another calm month, with a rise of only 0.1%, as initially reported.
French Industrial Production: Published on Thursday at 6:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy also enjoyed nice growth in its industrial production last month – a rise of 1%. Growth is expected to accelerate this month – 1.2%. While there are talks of a credit downgrade for France as well, its economy is rather strong.
Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet isn’t expected to change the European Minimum Bid Rate. Yet again, he’s expected to leave it unchanged at 1%. A small rise in inflation put some pressure for a rate hike, but the rise in prices isn’t too strong. On the other hand, the dire situation in the Euro-zone prompts slashing the rates, but the ECB isn’t too keen on such a move. The focus will be on the ECB Press Conference, where hints about future policy and remarks about the current situation will be closely watched.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The “Lehman levels” at 1.2330 capped EUR/USD during the week, as it traded between this line and last week’s low of 1.2142. On Friday, this range trading was broken, as the pair collapsed below this support line and closed under 1.20, at 1.1968.
Lower support lines were added on last week’s outlook. The current range is between 1.20, which is a round number eyed by many, and 1.1820, which was a support line back in 2006.
Looking down, the next line of support is at 1.17. This is a symbolic number – this is the level that the Euro launched at, in 1999, as an interbank currency, before there were euro coins and bills. Below, 1.1630 – this was the bottom in November 2005, and now provides strong support.
A drop below this line sends the Euro back to levels last seen in 2003. Minor support is found at 1.1560, followed by stronger support at 1.1370. Even lower, 1.11 is the next support line, serving as both a support and resistance line back at the beginning of 2003, 7 years ago.
Looking up above 1.20, the next line of resistance is at 1.2142, the former resistance line. This is followed by 1.2330 mentioned earlier.
Higher, 1.2460 is a strong line of resistance, capping the pair a few weeks ago. The next line is at 1.2670, which was a swing high. There are many more resistance line above, but they’re quite far at the moment.
I remain bearish on EUR/USD.
Yes, the Euro already lost a lot of ground, and some may say it’s oversold. But these falls are backed by an unstoppable flood of bad news. In the past week, it was Hungary, which compared itself to Greece. More debt black holes will probably be discovered, pushing the Euro lower.
AUD/USD Weekly Technical Analysis (June 7-11 2010)
After another week of tense range trading, another busy week expects the Aussie, with employment data being the climax. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The past week saw two important releases: GDP and the rate decision that were OK. The Aussie didn’t fully enjoy them. Will employment numbers boost the currency? Let’s see:
AIG Construction Index: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT. This gauge for the housing sector from the Australian Industry Group jumped back above 50 points last month, indicating economic expansion. From 55.8 points last month, it’s expected to edge down.
ANZ Job Advertisements: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. This is often regarded as an indicator towards the official employment figures due later in the week. The amount of jobs advertised in newspapers unexpectedly fell by 1.2% last month, hurting the Aussie. A small rise is predicted this time.
Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. This survey of 1200 consumers already reflected the recent turmoil last month, with a drop of 7%. The upcoming release should show a small correction – a small rise. This indicator tends to move the Aussie, due to its freshness.
Home Loans: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. The amount of loans given towards buying homes dropped in the past 6 months, disappointing the Aussie over and over again. This is a direct result of the tightening policy by the RBA – higher interest rates make mortgages less attractive. Another drop is due this time – 1.9%.
NAB Business Confidence: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT and overshadowed by home loans. 550 businesses are polled for National Australia Bank’s survey. This important survey is already off the peak of 19 points it scored two months ago. From 13 points, another small drop is expected now.
MI Inflation Expectations: Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. The Australian authorities publish the CPI only once a quarter, so this indicator by the Melbourne Institute, fill the gap. After leaping to 4.1%, expectations fell back to more normal levels – 3.6%, also a result of the rate hikes. It’s expected to remain almost unchanged this time.
Employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. The best is kept for last. Last month’s employment figures surprised with a leap of 33,700 jobs, about 50% more than expected. But now, only half of this gain is predicted – 16,100. On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.4% – a figure which isn’t expected to change this time. Any outcome will rock the Aussie.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie traded between the0.8240 support line and 0.85 during most of the week. On Friday the pair broke under 0.8240 but the break wasn’t convincing – the pair closed at 0.8231.
Most support and resistance lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook, but the Aussie is positioned in a sensitive spot. The opening of the new week is critical for the Aussie. If the pair bounces back above 0.8240, the drop can be disregarded. Otherwise, it will open the road to lower levels.
The next line of support is at 0.8066, the area where the Aussie fell to in the big collapse at the beginning of May. Below, minor support is found at 0.7860, which was an area of resistance about a year ago.
Below, the 0.77 line provides strong support – the Aussie fell off from this line at the height of the financial crisis. It fell to 0.7450, which is the next line of support.
Looking up, 0.8477 is still a minor line of resistance, serving as such about 9 months ago. The stronger line of resistance is at 0.8567, which worked as a convincing line of support and resistance recently.
Further up the road, 0.88 worked as a support line, and now serves as a line of resistance. Higher, 0.90 is a round number and also provided support when the pair was trading higher.
I remain bullish on the Aussie.
The strong fundamentals that we’ve seen last week, and the employment figures which are usually good, should supply the fuel the Aussie needs to overcome the risk aversive trading that is caused by trouble overseas.
AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
The past week saw two important releases: GDP and the rate decision that were OK. The Aussie didn’t fully enjoy them. Will employment numbers boost the currency? Let’s see:
AIG Construction Index: Published on Sunday at 23:30 GMT. This gauge for the housing sector from the Australian Industry Group jumped back above 50 points last month, indicating economic expansion. From 55.8 points last month, it’s expected to edge down.
ANZ Job Advertisements: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. This is often regarded as an indicator towards the official employment figures due later in the week. The amount of jobs advertised in newspapers unexpectedly fell by 1.2% last month, hurting the Aussie. A small rise is predicted this time.
Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. This survey of 1200 consumers already reflected the recent turmoil last month, with a drop of 7%. The upcoming release should show a small correction – a small rise. This indicator tends to move the Aussie, due to its freshness.
Home Loans: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. The amount of loans given towards buying homes dropped in the past 6 months, disappointing the Aussie over and over again. This is a direct result of the tightening policy by the RBA – higher interest rates make mortgages less attractive. Another drop is due this time – 1.9%.
NAB Business Confidence: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT and overshadowed by home loans. 550 businesses are polled for National Australia Bank’s survey. This important survey is already off the peak of 19 points it scored two months ago. From 13 points, another small drop is expected now.
MI Inflation Expectations: Published on Thursday at 1:00 GMT. The Australian authorities publish the CPI only once a quarter, so this indicator by the Melbourne Institute, fill the gap. After leaping to 4.1%, expectations fell back to more normal levels – 3.6%, also a result of the rate hikes. It’s expected to remain almost unchanged this time.
Employment data: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. The best is kept for last. Last month’s employment figures surprised with a leap of 33,700 jobs, about 50% more than expected. But now, only half of this gain is predicted – 16,100. On the other hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.4% – a figure which isn’t expected to change this time. Any outcome will rock the Aussie.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie traded between the0.8240 support line and 0.85 during most of the week. On Friday the pair broke under 0.8240 but the break wasn’t convincing – the pair closed at 0.8231.
Most support and resistance lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook, but the Aussie is positioned in a sensitive spot. The opening of the new week is critical for the Aussie. If the pair bounces back above 0.8240, the drop can be disregarded. Otherwise, it will open the road to lower levels.
The next line of support is at 0.8066, the area where the Aussie fell to in the big collapse at the beginning of May. Below, minor support is found at 0.7860, which was an area of resistance about a year ago.
Below, the 0.77 line provides strong support – the Aussie fell off from this line at the height of the financial crisis. It fell to 0.7450, which is the next line of support.
Looking up, 0.8477 is still a minor line of resistance, serving as such about 9 months ago. The stronger line of resistance is at 0.8567, which worked as a convincing line of support and resistance recently.
Further up the road, 0.88 worked as a support line, and now serves as a line of resistance. Higher, 0.90 is a round number and also provided support when the pair was trading higher.
I remain bullish on the Aussie.
The strong fundamentals that we’ve seen last week, and the employment figures which are usually good, should supply the fuel the Aussie needs to overcome the risk aversive trading that is caused by trouble overseas.
GBP/USD Weekly Technical Analysis (June 7-11 2010)
A very busy week awaits the British Pound, with the rate decision being the highlight. Will Mervyn King tackle inflation? Here’s an outlook for the events that will rock the Pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it.
The Pound enjoyed the failure of the Prudential -AIG Asia deal. This deal would have sent billions of pounds overseas, and its failure strengthened the Pound. That wasn’t enough to hold the Pound after Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls though. Let’s see the British events:
BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Published on Monday at 23:00 GMT (midnight UK). This figure is a great indicator for the official retail sales release. The British Retail Consortium showed a drop of 2.3% in the retailers that belong to its organization. This came after two months of neat rises. Another drop is predicted this time.
Nationwide Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 23:00 GMT. This survey of 1,000 consumers is a highly regarded barometer for the mood of consumers and of MPC members that meet later in the week. After steadily climbing to 81, this indicator dropped and now stands on 74 points. This is the first survey for the new government and also the first one after the escalation of the European troubles. Economists expected a rise to 78 points, but given the worries, a drop under 70 won’t be very surprising.
Trade Balance: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. After making a surprise drop two months ago and boosting the British Pound, the trade deficit jumped once again to 7.5 billion pounds, weakening the currency. It’s expected to squeeze down to 7 billion this time.
Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. The BoE is trapped between the desire to stimulate the economy by leaving the interest rate unchanged, and by the rising inflation. Mervyn King dismissed the rising inflation and said it’s only oil prices, but the new Prime Minister, David Cameron, doesn’t buy this, and made it clear that he wants the issue to be tackled. The consensus is for an unchanged Official Bank Rate – at 0.5%. If there isn’t a rate hike, traders will watch the MPC Rate Statement – if they express worries about inflation, the Pound will rise. If they focus on economic troubles, it will weaken.
Manufacturing Production: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. This major indicator always rocks the Pound. Last month’s release was a big surprise – output grew by 2.3%, far better than expected.The forecast for this release is more modest – 0.6% growth. Note that manufacturing is part of the overall industrial production, which is predicted to rise by 0.5% after a 2% rise last time. Manufacturing is more closely watched.
PPI: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. Following a leap of 3.8% in producer prices two months ago (3.8%), prices grew by only 0.6% last month, and they;re expected to drop by 0.1% this time, showing that inflation is still under control, at least with the PPI Input figure. The complementary number, PPI Output, is expected to rise by 0.6% after rising by 1.4% last time.
NIESR GDP Estimate: Published on Friday at 14:00 GMT. Last but not least, the NIESR institute usually provides accurate estimations about the GDP, and they release it on a monthly basis. ast month’s figure was positive – it showed a growth rate of 0.5% in the three months ending in April. A weaker growth rate is expected now, when May is added and February omitted from the calculation.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
After some range trading between 1.44 and 1.4610, the Pound made a breakout and reached 1.4770, just 10 pips below the 1.4780 resistance line. Friday’s mess sent the pair back down to 1.4450.
Note that many lines have changed since last week’s outlook. The pair is bound by 1.44 and 1.4610 once again. Both lines aren’t very strong.
Looking down below 1.44, the next line is the year-to-date low of 1.4230. This was also a line of support last year. Below, 1.4130 was a swing low and now provides minor support.
Even lower, 1.38 is a strong line, working as a support line at the beginning of 2009. It’s followed by 1.3660, and by the ultimate multi-decade support line of 1.35.
Looking up above 11.4610, strong resistance is found at 1.4780. This is the line that the Pound collapsed to a few months ago, and it was tested successfully just this week.
A break above this line will send the pair to 1.5065, followed by 1.5130, which was a strong support line. There are more resistance lines higher above, but they are too far now.
I am neutral on the GBP/USD.
On one hand, the British economy is still growing slowly and it suffers from the debt issues in continental Europe. But on the other hand, rising inflation can trigger a rate hike, that will probably come sooner than later.
GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines on it.
The Pound enjoyed the failure of the Prudential -AIG Asia deal. This deal would have sent billions of pounds overseas, and its failure strengthened the Pound. That wasn’t enough to hold the Pound after Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls though. Let’s see the British events:
BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Published on Monday at 23:00 GMT (midnight UK). This figure is a great indicator for the official retail sales release. The British Retail Consortium showed a drop of 2.3% in the retailers that belong to its organization. This came after two months of neat rises. Another drop is predicted this time.
Nationwide Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 23:00 GMT. This survey of 1,000 consumers is a highly regarded barometer for the mood of consumers and of MPC members that meet later in the week. After steadily climbing to 81, this indicator dropped and now stands on 74 points. This is the first survey for the new government and also the first one after the escalation of the European troubles. Economists expected a rise to 78 points, but given the worries, a drop under 70 won’t be very surprising.
Trade Balance: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. After making a surprise drop two months ago and boosting the British Pound, the trade deficit jumped once again to 7.5 billion pounds, weakening the currency. It’s expected to squeeze down to 7 billion this time.
Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. The BoE is trapped between the desire to stimulate the economy by leaving the interest rate unchanged, and by the rising inflation. Mervyn King dismissed the rising inflation and said it’s only oil prices, but the new Prime Minister, David Cameron, doesn’t buy this, and made it clear that he wants the issue to be tackled. The consensus is for an unchanged Official Bank Rate – at 0.5%. If there isn’t a rate hike, traders will watch the MPC Rate Statement – if they express worries about inflation, the Pound will rise. If they focus on economic troubles, it will weaken.
Manufacturing Production: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. This major indicator always rocks the Pound. Last month’s release was a big surprise – output grew by 2.3%, far better than expected.The forecast for this release is more modest – 0.6% growth. Note that manufacturing is part of the overall industrial production, which is predicted to rise by 0.5% after a 2% rise last time. Manufacturing is more closely watched.
PPI: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. Following a leap of 3.8% in producer prices two months ago (3.8%), prices grew by only 0.6% last month, and they;re expected to drop by 0.1% this time, showing that inflation is still under control, at least with the PPI Input figure. The complementary number, PPI Output, is expected to rise by 0.6% after rising by 1.4% last time.
NIESR GDP Estimate: Published on Friday at 14:00 GMT. Last but not least, the NIESR institute usually provides accurate estimations about the GDP, and they release it on a monthly basis. ast month’s figure was positive – it showed a growth rate of 0.5% in the three months ending in April. A weaker growth rate is expected now, when May is added and February omitted from the calculation.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
After some range trading between 1.44 and 1.4610, the Pound made a breakout and reached 1.4770, just 10 pips below the 1.4780 resistance line. Friday’s mess sent the pair back down to 1.4450.
Note that many lines have changed since last week’s outlook. The pair is bound by 1.44 and 1.4610 once again. Both lines aren’t very strong.
Looking down below 1.44, the next line is the year-to-date low of 1.4230. This was also a line of support last year. Below, 1.4130 was a swing low and now provides minor support.
Even lower, 1.38 is a strong line, working as a support line at the beginning of 2009. It’s followed by 1.3660, and by the ultimate multi-decade support line of 1.35.
Looking up above 11.4610, strong resistance is found at 1.4780. This is the line that the Pound collapsed to a few months ago, and it was tested successfully just this week.
A break above this line will send the pair to 1.5065, followed by 1.5130, which was a strong support line. There are more resistance lines higher above, but they are too far now.
I am neutral on the GBP/USD.
On one hand, the British economy is still growing slowly and it suffers from the debt issues in continental Europe. But on the other hand, rising inflation can trigger a rate hike, that will probably come sooner than later.
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Best Non-Farm Payrolls in Past 13 Years?
The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls release on June 4th holds high expectations – a job gain of 500K jobs, the best since 1997, but this includes special government hiring. Here are the things to watch for in this release, and the expected impact on currencies.
It’s important to stress that the Non-Farm Payrolls release is the most volatile event in forex trading, and causes very high volatility. I suggest you read my 5 notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading. The comment regarding the risk factor is very important these days. OK, let’s see what’s special this time:
The decennial government census already had an impact on previous Non-Farm Payrolls releases. The impact will come to a climax in June 4th’s report. Previous months were dedicated for preparations, and this reported month, May, is when the census was held.
So, a big bulk of the gain in jobs comes from the government. Private sector hiring is only a small part of this month’s report, but it’s of high importance, as it serves as the core value, only slightly affected by the census, and supplying a long-term value.
The markets will pay less importance to the headline number, but rather focus on hiring in the private sector, which is expected to reach 180,000.
Contradicting rise in the unemployment rate
Last month saw a huge leap of 290K jobs, far better than expected. The figure for the previous month was also revised to the upside. But the unemployment rate jumped from 9.7% to 9.9%, very close to the scary 10% figure.
Despite the huge gain expected in jobs in the public sector, and the neat gain in jobs in the private sector, the unemployment rate is expected to drop by only 0.1% to 9.8%. The best explanation for last month’s rise and this month’s expected small dip is that the deep crisis sent many people off charts. As they stopped being part of the workforce, they didn’t contribute to the unemployment rate.
Now that they’re starting to get back, they enlarge the total workforce in a similar scale to the gain in jobs, thus leaving the unemployment rate almost unchanged.
Impact on forex trading
Yet again, this seems to be another win-win situation for the dollar, especially in the Euro/Dollar and the Pound/Dollar. If the results come as expected, it will be another sign of the American economy’s strength. This strength stands out against the great European weakness and against the Pound that follows it.
On the other hand, the Canadian and Australian economies are also doing quite well, and could still rise after this result. AUD/USD has lots of room to rise after the recent falls, driven mostly by risk aversive action. A good NFP will trigger risk appetite behavior and send the Aussie up.
Canada expects a busy week, with a possible rate hike, GDP numbers and employment figures just 90 minutes before the NFP. If Canadian numbers are OK, USD/CAD could fall.
Scenarios for surprises – dollar strength expected.
A disappointing outcome of the Non-Farm Payrolls or a rise of the unemployment rate above 10% could trigger risk aversive trading across the board, hurting also stronger currencies. We’ve seen the dollar rise after weak GDP and weak jobless claims last week. In these chaotic days, bad news, even if they come from the US, trigger dollar buying.
The opposite scenario, of a big drop in the unemployment rate and an even-higher gain in jobs, the dollar will stand out against all the currencies, and will fully justify its safe haven status.
We have lots of other major events before Friday’s NFP. How do you see the Non-Farm Payrolls unfold for forex trading?
It’s important to stress that the Non-Farm Payrolls release is the most volatile event in forex trading, and causes very high volatility. I suggest you read my 5 notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading. The comment regarding the risk factor is very important these days. OK, let’s see what’s special this time:
The decennial government census already had an impact on previous Non-Farm Payrolls releases. The impact will come to a climax in June 4th’s report. Previous months were dedicated for preparations, and this reported month, May, is when the census was held.
So, a big bulk of the gain in jobs comes from the government. Private sector hiring is only a small part of this month’s report, but it’s of high importance, as it serves as the core value, only slightly affected by the census, and supplying a long-term value.
The markets will pay less importance to the headline number, but rather focus on hiring in the private sector, which is expected to reach 180,000.
Contradicting rise in the unemployment rate
Last month saw a huge leap of 290K jobs, far better than expected. The figure for the previous month was also revised to the upside. But the unemployment rate jumped from 9.7% to 9.9%, very close to the scary 10% figure.
Despite the huge gain expected in jobs in the public sector, and the neat gain in jobs in the private sector, the unemployment rate is expected to drop by only 0.1% to 9.8%. The best explanation for last month’s rise and this month’s expected small dip is that the deep crisis sent many people off charts. As they stopped being part of the workforce, they didn’t contribute to the unemployment rate.
Now that they’re starting to get back, they enlarge the total workforce in a similar scale to the gain in jobs, thus leaving the unemployment rate almost unchanged.
Impact on forex trading
Yet again, this seems to be another win-win situation for the dollar, especially in the Euro/Dollar and the Pound/Dollar. If the results come as expected, it will be another sign of the American economy’s strength. This strength stands out against the great European weakness and against the Pound that follows it.
On the other hand, the Canadian and Australian economies are also doing quite well, and could still rise after this result. AUD/USD has lots of room to rise after the recent falls, driven mostly by risk aversive action. A good NFP will trigger risk appetite behavior and send the Aussie up.
Canada expects a busy week, with a possible rate hike, GDP numbers and employment figures just 90 minutes before the NFP. If Canadian numbers are OK, USD/CAD could fall.
Scenarios for surprises – dollar strength expected.
A disappointing outcome of the Non-Farm Payrolls or a rise of the unemployment rate above 10% could trigger risk aversive trading across the board, hurting also stronger currencies. We’ve seen the dollar rise after weak GDP and weak jobless claims last week. In these chaotic days, bad news, even if they come from the US, trigger dollar buying.
The opposite scenario, of a big drop in the unemployment rate and an even-higher gain in jobs, the dollar will stand out against all the currencies, and will fully justify its safe haven status.
We have lots of other major events before Friday’s NFP. How do you see the Non-Farm Payrolls unfold for forex trading?
AUD/USD Weekly Technical Analysis (May 31- June 4 2010)
A very busy week expects Aussie traders: a rate decision, the GDP release and 11 more events will shake the Australian dollar. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
The Australian dollar enjoyed a significant recovery this week, finally dropping the Euro’s weight on the global markets. The crowded Australian calendar means that this trend will continue. Let’s start:
HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. Australia’s Housing Industry Association finally provided a stable change in the number of newly constructed homes last month. The rise of 0.9% followed a drop of 5.2% and a rise of 9.5% beforehand. The forecast is for a small rise that will help the Aussie.
MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge completes the gap that the government leaves by releasing the CPI figures only once per quarter. Prices have risen by 0.4% last month, and this modest rise will probably be repeated.
Current Account: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Although this figure lags the related trade balance release, this quarterly figure still has a strong impact on currencies. Australia’s deficit rose to 17.5 billion in Q4, and is now expected to show a smaller deficit of 16.4 billion.
Private Sector Credit: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Businesses and consumers increased their credit by 0.5% last month, a higher rate than in previous months, indicating economic expansion. Forecasts stand on a 0.5% rise.
AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Monday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group showed a big improvement in the manufacturing sector last month – this PMI-like figure rose to 59.8, a level unseen since the beginning of the global crisis. The 200 manufacturers that are surveyed for this indicator will probably show a drop, but a figure above 50 – more economic expansion.
Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Published on Tuesday at 1:00 GMT. Australia’s main trade partner is expected to show a similar score this time – 55.5 points. Any leap or drop in this major Chinese indicator will rock the Aussie as well.
Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. After a big drop two months ago, consumers increased their spending once again – sales volume rose by 0.3% and is expected to rise by the same scale once again.
Building Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT and overshadowed by retail sales. After two months of big drops, this major housing sector gauge leaped by 15.3%. This volatile indicator will probably show another correction – to the downside this time, with a drop of 4.9%.
Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After two surprising rate hikes, Glenn Stevens’ RBA is expected to pause before another rate hike. The hikes succeeded in cooling down the housing sector, and the global turmoil in May create a consensus that Australia’s Cash Rate will remain at 4.5%. There are no other forecasts for this Australian rate decision.
Commodity Prices: Published on Tuesday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity oriented economy saw a big year-over-year jump in prices last month – 29.4%. It’s hard to tell where prices will go this time, making the release more important this time. On one hand, gold reached new highs, but oil prices slumped.
GDP: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. The Australian economy, that never experienced an official recession, is expected to show slower growth in Q1 – only 0.6%, after a strong 0.9% rise last time. This major indicator will shake the markets, no matter the outcome.
AIG Services Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The second release from AIG is different. Contrary to the manufacturing sector, Australia’s services sector returned to expansion just last month, following three months of contraction. The index rose above 50 to 52.3 points. A similar score is predicted this time.
Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. This figure relates to April. Forecasts are positive this time. Australia is expected to see a drop in its deficit – from 2 billion to 770 million. This significant change will probably boost the Aussie.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie challenged the 0.8066 support line once again, but bounced off it and began a rally. After struggling with the 0.8240 resistance line, it rose up to 0.8550 before closing at 0.8477.
The current range for AUD/USD is between the minor resistance line of 0.8477, which was a strong line of resistance last year, and with 0.8240 which had a similar role.
Looking down, strong support is found at 0.8066, a line that was added on last week’s outlook. Further below, 0.7860 was a support line back in July 2009, and it’s followed by the important support line of 0.77. AUD/USD fell off this line with a big gap at the height of the financial crisis. Lower, 0.7450 is the line the Aussie fell to in those dark days.
Looking up, 0.8567, which provided support for many months, is now a strong resistance line. It’s followed by 0.88, that also was a line of support, and with 0.90, which is also a round psychological number.
Higher, 0.9135 supported the Aussie before the big collapse. It’s followed by 0.9327, which was a line of resistance lots of times in recent months.
I am bullish on AUD/USD.
The Aussie returned to enjoy its strong fundamentals, and take less hits from risk aversive trading. This busy week should provide more fuel for the Aussie to rise.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
The Australian dollar enjoyed a significant recovery this week, finally dropping the Euro’s weight on the global markets. The crowded Australian calendar means that this trend will continue. Let’s start:
HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. Australia’s Housing Industry Association finally provided a stable change in the number of newly constructed homes last month. The rise of 0.9% followed a drop of 5.2% and a rise of 9.5% beforehand. The forecast is for a small rise that will help the Aussie.
MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge completes the gap that the government leaves by releasing the CPI figures only once per quarter. Prices have risen by 0.4% last month, and this modest rise will probably be repeated.
Current Account: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Although this figure lags the related trade balance release, this quarterly figure still has a strong impact on currencies. Australia’s deficit rose to 17.5 billion in Q4, and is now expected to show a smaller deficit of 16.4 billion.
Private Sector Credit: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Businesses and consumers increased their credit by 0.5% last month, a higher rate than in previous months, indicating economic expansion. Forecasts stand on a 0.5% rise.
AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Monday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group showed a big improvement in the manufacturing sector last month – this PMI-like figure rose to 59.8, a level unseen since the beginning of the global crisis. The 200 manufacturers that are surveyed for this indicator will probably show a drop, but a figure above 50 – more economic expansion.
Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Published on Tuesday at 1:00 GMT. Australia’s main trade partner is expected to show a similar score this time – 55.5 points. Any leap or drop in this major Chinese indicator will rock the Aussie as well.
Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. After a big drop two months ago, consumers increased their spending once again – sales volume rose by 0.3% and is expected to rise by the same scale once again.
Building Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT and overshadowed by retail sales. After two months of big drops, this major housing sector gauge leaped by 15.3%. This volatile indicator will probably show another correction – to the downside this time, with a drop of 4.9%.
Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After two surprising rate hikes, Glenn Stevens’ RBA is expected to pause before another rate hike. The hikes succeeded in cooling down the housing sector, and the global turmoil in May create a consensus that Australia’s Cash Rate will remain at 4.5%. There are no other forecasts for this Australian rate decision.
Commodity Prices: Published on Tuesday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity oriented economy saw a big year-over-year jump in prices last month – 29.4%. It’s hard to tell where prices will go this time, making the release more important this time. On one hand, gold reached new highs, but oil prices slumped.
GDP: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. The Australian economy, that never experienced an official recession, is expected to show slower growth in Q1 – only 0.6%, after a strong 0.9% rise last time. This major indicator will shake the markets, no matter the outcome.
AIG Services Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The second release from AIG is different. Contrary to the manufacturing sector, Australia’s services sector returned to expansion just last month, following three months of contraction. The index rose above 50 to 52.3 points. A similar score is predicted this time.
Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. This figure relates to April. Forecasts are positive this time. Australia is expected to see a drop in its deficit – from 2 billion to 770 million. This significant change will probably boost the Aussie.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie challenged the 0.8066 support line once again, but bounced off it and began a rally. After struggling with the 0.8240 resistance line, it rose up to 0.8550 before closing at 0.8477.
The current range for AUD/USD is between the minor resistance line of 0.8477, which was a strong line of resistance last year, and with 0.8240 which had a similar role.
Looking down, strong support is found at 0.8066, a line that was added on last week’s outlook. Further below, 0.7860 was a support line back in July 2009, and it’s followed by the important support line of 0.77. AUD/USD fell off this line with a big gap at the height of the financial crisis. Lower, 0.7450 is the line the Aussie fell to in those dark days.
Looking up, 0.8567, which provided support for many months, is now a strong resistance line. It’s followed by 0.88, that also was a line of support, and with 0.90, which is also a round psychological number.
Higher, 0.9135 supported the Aussie before the big collapse. It’s followed by 0.9327, which was a line of resistance lots of times in recent months.
I am bullish on AUD/USD.
The Aussie returned to enjoy its strong fundamentals, and take less hits from risk aversive trading. This busy week should provide more fuel for the Aussie to rise.
AUD/USD Weekly Technical Analysis (May 31- June 4 2010)
A very busy week expects Aussie traders: a rate decision, the GDP release and 11 more events will shake the Australian dollar. Here’s an outlook for the Australian events and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
The Australian dollar enjoyed a significant recovery this week, finally dropping the Euro’s weight on the global markets. The crowded Australian calendar means that this trend will continue. Let’s start:
HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. Australia’s Housing Industry Association finally provided a stable change in the number of newly constructed homes last month. The rise of 0.9% followed a drop of 5.2% and a rise of 9.5% beforehand. The forecast is for a small rise that will help the Aussie.
MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge completes the gap that the government leaves by releasing the CPI figures only once per quarter. Prices have risen by 0.4% last month, and this modest rise will probably be repeated.
Current Account: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Although this figure lags the related trade balance release, this quarterly figure still has a strong impact on currencies. Australia’s deficit rose to 17.5 billion in Q4, and is now expected to show a smaller deficit of 16.4 billion.
Private Sector Credit: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Businesses and consumers increased their credit by 0.5% last month, a higher rate than in previous months, indicating economic expansion. Forecasts stand on a 0.5% rise.
AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Monday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group showed a big improvement in the manufacturing sector last month – this PMI-like figure rose to 59.8, a level unseen since the beginning of the global crisis. The 200 manufacturers that are surveyed for this indicator will probably show a drop, but a figure above 50 – more economic expansion.
Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Published on Tuesday at 1:00 GMT. Australia’s main trade partner is expected to show a similar score this time – 55.5 points. Any leap or drop in this major Chinese indicator will rock the Aussie as well.
Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. After a big drop two months ago, consumers increased their spending once again – sales volume rose by 0.3% and is expected to rise by the same scale once again.
Building Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT and overshadowed by retail sales. After two months of big drops, this major housing sector gauge leaped by 15.3%. This volatile indicator will probably show another correction – to the downside this time, with a drop of 4.9%.
Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After two surprising rate hikes, Glenn Stevens’ RBA is expected to pause before another rate hike. The hikes succeeded in cooling down the housing sector, and the global turmoil in May create a consensus that Australia’s Cash Rate will remain at 4.5%. There are no other forecasts for this Australian rate decision.
Commodity Prices: Published on Tuesday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity oriented economy saw a big year-over-year jump in prices last month – 29.4%. It’s hard to tell where prices will go this time, making the release more important this time. On one hand, gold reached new highs, but oil prices slumped.
GDP: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. The Australian economy, that never experienced an official recession, is expected to show slower growth in Q1 – only 0.6%, after a strong 0.9% rise last time. This major indicator will shake the markets, no matter the outcome.
AIG Services Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The second release from AIG is different. Contrary to the manufacturing sector, Australia’s services sector returned to expansion just last month, following three months of contraction. The index rose above 50 to 52.3 points. A similar score is predicted this time.
Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. This figure relates to April. Forecasts are positive this time. Australia is expected to see a drop in its deficit – from 2 billion to 770 million. This significant change will probably boost the Aussie.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie challenged the 0.8066 support line once again, but bounced off it and began a rally. After struggling with the 0.8240 resistance line, it rose up to 0.8550 before closing at 0.8477.
The current range for AUD/USD is between the minor resistance line of 0.8477, which was a strong line of resistance last year, and with 0.8240 which had a similar role.
Looking down, strong support is found at 0.8066, a line that was added on last week’s outlook. Further below, 0.7860 was a support line back in July 2009, and it’s followed by the important support line of 0.77. AUD/USD fell off this line with a big gap at the height of the financial crisis. Lower, 0.7450 is the line the Aussie fell to in those dark days.
Looking up, 0.8567, which provided support for many months, is now a strong resistance line. It’s followed by 0.88, that also was a line of support, and with 0.90, which is also a round psychological number.
Higher, 0.9135 supported the Aussie before the big collapse. It’s followed by 0.9327, which was a line of resistance lots of times in recent months.
I am bullish on AUD/USD.
The Aussie returned to enjoy its strong fundamentals, and take less hits from risk aversive trading. This busy week should provide more fuel for the Aussie to rise.
AUD/USD graph with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
The Australian dollar enjoyed a significant recovery this week, finally dropping the Euro’s weight on the global markets. The crowded Australian calendar means that this trend will continue. Let’s start:
HIA New Home Sales: Publication time unknown at the moment. Australia’s Housing Industry Association finally provided a stable change in the number of newly constructed homes last month. The rise of 0.9% followed a drop of 5.2% and a rise of 9.5% beforehand. The forecast is for a small rise that will help the Aussie.
MI Inflation Gauge: Published on Monday at 12:30 GMT. Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge completes the gap that the government leaves by releasing the CPI figures only once per quarter. Prices have risen by 0.4% last month, and this modest rise will probably be repeated.
Current Account: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Although this figure lags the related trade balance release, this quarterly figure still has a strong impact on currencies. Australia’s deficit rose to 17.5 billion in Q4, and is now expected to show a smaller deficit of 16.4 billion.
Private Sector Credit: Published on Monday at 1:30 GMT. Businesses and consumers increased their credit by 0.5% last month, a higher rate than in previous months, indicating economic expansion. Forecasts stand on a 0.5% rise.
AIG Manufacturing Index: Published on Monday at 23:30 GMT. The Australia Industry Group showed a big improvement in the manufacturing sector last month – this PMI-like figure rose to 59.8, a level unseen since the beginning of the global crisis. The 200 manufacturers that are surveyed for this indicator will probably show a drop, but a figure above 50 – more economic expansion.
Chinese Manufacturing PMI: Published on Tuesday at 1:00 GMT. Australia’s main trade partner is expected to show a similar score this time – 55.5 points. Any leap or drop in this major Chinese indicator will rock the Aussie as well.
Retail Sales: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT. After a big drop two months ago, consumers increased their spending once again – sales volume rose by 0.3% and is expected to rise by the same scale once again.
Building Approvals: Published on Tuesday at 1:30 GMT and overshadowed by retail sales. After two months of big drops, this major housing sector gauge leaped by 15.3%. This volatile indicator will probably show another correction – to the downside this time, with a drop of 4.9%.
Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 4:30 GMT. After two surprising rate hikes, Glenn Stevens’ RBA is expected to pause before another rate hike. The hikes succeeded in cooling down the housing sector, and the global turmoil in May create a consensus that Australia’s Cash Rate will remain at 4.5%. There are no other forecasts for this Australian rate decision.
Commodity Prices: Published on Tuesday at 6:30 GMT. Australia’s commodity oriented economy saw a big year-over-year jump in prices last month – 29.4%. It’s hard to tell where prices will go this time, making the release more important this time. On one hand, gold reached new highs, but oil prices slumped.
GDP: Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT. The Australian economy, that never experienced an official recession, is expected to show slower growth in Q1 – only 0.6%, after a strong 0.9% rise last time. This major indicator will shake the markets, no matter the outcome.
AIG Services Index: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. The second release from AIG is different. Contrary to the manufacturing sector, Australia’s services sector returned to expansion just last month, following three months of contraction. The index rose above 50 to 52.3 points. A similar score is predicted this time.
Trade Balance: Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. This figure relates to April. Forecasts are positive this time. Australia is expected to see a drop in its deficit – from 2 billion to 770 million. This significant change will probably boost the Aussie.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The Aussie challenged the 0.8066 support line once again, but bounced off it and began a rally. After struggling with the 0.8240 resistance line, it rose up to 0.8550 before closing at 0.8477.
The current range for AUD/USD is between the minor resistance line of 0.8477, which was a strong line of resistance last year, and with 0.8240 which had a similar role.
Looking down, strong support is found at 0.8066, a line that was added on last week’s outlook. Further below, 0.7860 was a support line back in July 2009, and it’s followed by the important support line of 0.77. AUD/USD fell off this line with a big gap at the height of the financial crisis. Lower, 0.7450 is the line the Aussie fell to in those dark days.
Looking up, 0.8567, which provided support for many months, is now a strong resistance line. It’s followed by 0.88, that also was a line of support, and with 0.90, which is also a round psychological number.
Higher, 0.9135 supported the Aussie before the big collapse. It’s followed by 0.9327, which was a line of resistance lots of times in recent months.
I am bullish on AUD/USD.
The Aussie returned to enjoy its strong fundamentals, and take less hits from risk aversive trading. This busy week should provide more fuel for the Aussie to rise.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Money Management Strategy in Forex or Stock
This article deals with one of the most important aspects of trading - money management.
Although there are plenty of trading systems and trading strategies with good win/loss ratio, proper money management can change the outcome of the net profit amount for any trading system.
Essentially, money management strategy is a statistical tool to control the risk exposure and profit potential when we enter into a trade; and by applying it, we can control our emotions and lack of plan (the main reason why most of traders lose their money).
The importance of determine a stop-loss
C.O.N.T.R.O.L... When a trader lose control the results are often disastrous. Many traders often enter the market with a profit target, but without a clearly defined protective stop-loss.
With a pre-determined profit target and a pre-determined stop-loss, you know where you will get out if you are wrong and where you will get out if you are right. In other words, you have control.
Diversification - Trade more then one currency pair
When trading more then one currency pair, i.e. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD atc., each pair would have a different stop-loss and profit target. With multiple currency pairs, each having a different entry and exit points you can smooth your system equity curve so your account draw-downs will be smaller.
Note: It's important that you diversify your orders between currencies that have low correlation.
Case study - Fixed Ratio With Fixed Number of Trades
Money management is the most significant part of any trading system. Our Forex money management strategy is simple to implement, conservative and practical when combined with one of our trading tutorials strategies.
First of all, you should understand the following terms:
Fixed Risk Ratio
Never risk more than 2% of your account size on any single currency pair, if possible, risk less. Plus, never risk more than 10% in any complex of open positions, on any given day. For any given trade you must know how much you will lose if the market goes against you.
Example - According to our money management strategy, you should be risking no more then 2% of you balance per single trade. So, if you start with $1,000 account size you may lose up to $20 in one trade, i.e. If the trade is stopped, you will lose $20 which is 2% of your initial balance.
Please note: You can open up to 5 parallel trades (other pairs), at the same time - max risk = 10% from your initial balance.
Fixed Number of Trades
The "fixed number of trades" parameter derives from the trading system profitable factor, as follows:
Forex money management strategy implementation
Now that we have these two parameters (the fixed risk ratio and the fixed number of trades), let's make an example:
In this case we can lose up to $50 ($2,500 * 2%) at any given trade for the next 30 actual trades. Then, after 30 trades we will re-calculate our maximum risk amount, i.e., if the new account size is now $3,000, we can afford to lose up to $60 at any given trade for the following 30 trades, and so on.
Basically, we re-calculate the risk amount (based on the fixed risk ratio and account balance) after each fixed number of trades, in this example, 30.
Note: You can adapt this money management strategy to fit smaller or bigger trading accounts, providing you stick to the 2% risk rule.
Diversification - Trade more then one currency pair
When trading more then one currency pair, i.e. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD atc., each pair would have a different stop-loss and profit target. With multiple currency pairs, each having a different entry and exit points you can smooth your system equity curve so your account draw-downs will be smaller.
Note: It's important that you diversify your orders between currencies that have low correlation.
Case study - Fixed Ratio With Fixed Number of Trades
Money management is the most significant part of any trading system. Our Forex money management strategy is simple to implement, conservative and practical when combined with one of our trading tutorials strategies.
First of all, you should understand the following terms:
Fixed Risk Ratio
Never risk more than 2% of your account size on any single currency pair, if possible, risk less. Plus, never risk more than 10% in any complex of open positions, on any given day. For any given trade you must know how much you will lose if the market goes against you.
Example - According to our money management strategy, you should be risking no more then 2% of you balance per single trade. So, if you start with $1,000 account size you may lose up to $20 in one trade, i.e. If the trade is stopped, you will lose $20 which is 2% of your initial balance.
Please note: You can open up to 5 parallel trades (other pairs), at the same time - max risk = 10% from your initial balance.
Fixed Number of Trades
The "fixed number of trades" parameter derives from the trading system profitable factor, as follows:
Trading System Percent Profitable (no. of winning trades / total no. of trades) | fixed Number of Trades |
60% | 40 |
65% | 35 |
70% | 30 |
75% | 25 |
80% | 20 |
85% | 15 |
Forex money management strategy implementation
Now that we have these two parameters (the fixed risk ratio and the fixed number of trades), let's make an example:
- Account size = $2,500
- Fixed Risk Ratio = 2%
- Fixed Number of Trades = 30 (we use trading system with 70% winning trades expectation - see table above).
In this case we can lose up to $50 ($2,500 * 2%) at any given trade for the next 30 actual trades. Then, after 30 trades we will re-calculate our maximum risk amount, i.e., if the new account size is now $3,000, we can afford to lose up to $60 at any given trade for the following 30 trades, and so on.
Basically, we re-calculate the risk amount (based on the fixed risk ratio and account balance) after each fixed number of trades, in this example, 30.
Note: You can adapt this money management strategy to fit smaller or bigger trading accounts, providing you stick to the 2% risk rule.
Forex Intra-Day Trading Strategy
Overview
This forex day trading strategy will focus on one of the best analysis method for forex trading - the use of multiple time frames.
Basically, in this strategy, we will use the longer timeframe (chart #1) to define our support and resistance price levels and the shorter timeframe (chart #2) for our trading entry, stop-loss and exit levels.
Also, for confirmation and momentum measurement we will use slow stochastic oscillator indicator (one of the best momentum indicators).
Forex day trading strategy rules:
- We use two time frames, long time frame - 4 hour and short time frame - 15 minute.
- We identify the support and resistance price levels on the longer timeframe a day before.
- We apply the stochastic indicator in both time frames to determine if we enter long or short position in our next intraday trading.
Case study - Forex (Foreign Exchange) USD/JPY Multiple Time Frame Bar Charts
USD/JPY 4 Hour Bar Chart (Chart #1)
Indicators and Parameters:
Support and Resistance Price Levels (Gray) - we use the swing pivot points of the previous day (yellow rectangle); 116.15,116.27,116.43,116.70 and 116.76.
Slow Stochastic Oscillator (lower window) - we set the stochastic indicator parameters for both time frames, as follow: %K period = 8, %D period = 3, Slowing = 3 (optional).
Forex day trading strategy practical analysis:
Chart #1 displays the 4 hour timeframe for the previous day (14 August).
What we can learn from this chart?
1. Resistance and Support price levels for the next day, our trading day, 15 August.
- High = 116.73 (bar 6)
- Low = 116.15 (bar 1)
- The High of the swing move 0-1 = 116.43 (also the high of 11 August)
- The High and Low of the swing move 4-5 = 116.70 (high) and 116.27 (low)
Note: as an opposite from calculated pivot points our price levels are generated from actual swing trading on this day.
2. What type of trading position we will favor the next day; short or long?
As you can see, the stochastic oscillator create diversion with this currency pair price (green line), i.e. the momentum is weakening; plus the stochastic indicates on an overbought situation (above 80 level). So, the next day (15 August), we will try to find conditions to enter a short position.
USD/JPY 15 Minute Bar Chart (Chart #2)
Forex day trading strategy - our trading day, 15 August:
At Chart #2 we can see the previous day - 14 August (yellow rectangle), our support and resistance price levels that we already identify, and the open price of our trading session at 116.62 (bar 1).
Because the open price of this day (116.62) is contained within a support/resistance horizontal channel, 116.43-116.70, and we want to place a short position, we have two options:
- We can enter short at 116.70, when the price retrace toward the resistance line.
- We can enter short at 116.38, when the price penetrate the support line (5 pips to confirm breakout).
In this case, USD/JPY currency price carried out the 116.70 short order (point A). As always, we placed immediately a stop-loss order at 116.81, 5 pips above the upper resistance price level; and a profit target order at 116.43, the next support level (point B).
Forex Day Trading Strategy Implementation
You can implement this forex day trading strategy on any fx currency pair. The mentioned setup and rules can be found almost everyday in the foreign exchange market. Good trading...
Monday, May 3, 2010
Essential Elements of a Successful Trader
Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain
All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.
You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.
However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.
Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.
Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.
The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.
For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.
The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).
So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.
Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?
If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.
Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus
Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.
To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.
All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.
You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.
However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.
Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.
Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.
The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.
For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.
The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).
So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.
Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?
If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.
Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus
Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.
To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.
Sunday, May 2, 2010
How to find new pairs for trade...
By nature, traders, forex or otherwise, can be creatures of habit. That is if we find something that works, we stick with it until it stops working. As it pertains to forex trading, this includes the pairs we trade. Many forex traders get into the game and focus on just one or two of the major pairs. This strategy is acceptable for beginners, but as your acumen increases, it might be a good idea to start looking for other pairs to make some pips. Rookie forex traders often focus on the Euro/US dollar (EUR/USD) and maybe one other major pair like the British pound/dollar (GBP/USD), but if you’re going to trade forex, you should be aware all of the opportunities available to you.
Two major pairs that tend to fall under the radar of a lot of forex traders are the Australian dollar/US dollar (AUD/USD) and New Zealand dollar/US dollar (NZD/USD). This is a shame because both the Aussie dollar and New Zealand dollar (also known as the kiwi) are two of most volatile currencies in the market and when traded properly, they can make traders a lot of pips. Your first order of business should be ensuring that your forex broker gives you access to these pairs. Most of the top forex brokers will as these are major pairs, but better to be safe than sorry.
Under current market conditions, the Aussie dollar and kiwi are definitely worth a look. Remember that as global equities rise, particularly US and Chinese stocks, risk appetite in the forex market increases and that means forex investors flee safe-haven currencies like the US dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc for riskier, higher-yielding assets like the Aussie dollar and kiwi.
In fact, several currency analysis reports have noted recently that the Aussie dollar is the most fundamentally sound of all the major currencies. Australia’s economy didn’t suffer during the global slowdown at the level that other major economies did and the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates relatively high, which has served to bolster the Aussie dollar’s fortunes. The Aussie dollar is also a great for forex traders to get exposure to gold because as gold prices rise, so does the Aussie dollar because Australia is one of the largest exporters of gold in the world.
The kiwi is also worth watching due to its intense correlation to stock prices. You can bet that if the S&P 500 is making new advances the kiwi is performing well against the US dollar. The kiwi recently touched a year-to-date high against the greenback, but couldn’t hold the gains, but the NZD/USD should still be on your watch list either for a long trade or an easy short if stocks start to retreat. Kiwi also rises with commodities demand, even though New Zealand is not known for production or exports of any one commodity in particular.
The bottom line is if you’re going to trade forex, you should keep all of your options open and with current market conditions conducive to a bull run in the Aussie dollar, that currency should be at the top of your list.
Two major pairs that tend to fall under the radar of a lot of forex traders are the Australian dollar/US dollar (AUD/USD) and New Zealand dollar/US dollar (NZD/USD). This is a shame because both the Aussie dollar and New Zealand dollar (also known as the kiwi) are two of most volatile currencies in the market and when traded properly, they can make traders a lot of pips. Your first order of business should be ensuring that your forex broker gives you access to these pairs. Most of the top forex brokers will as these are major pairs, but better to be safe than sorry.
Under current market conditions, the Aussie dollar and kiwi are definitely worth a look. Remember that as global equities rise, particularly US and Chinese stocks, risk appetite in the forex market increases and that means forex investors flee safe-haven currencies like the US dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc for riskier, higher-yielding assets like the Aussie dollar and kiwi.
In fact, several currency analysis reports have noted recently that the Aussie dollar is the most fundamentally sound of all the major currencies. Australia’s economy didn’t suffer during the global slowdown at the level that other major economies did and the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates relatively high, which has served to bolster the Aussie dollar’s fortunes. The Aussie dollar is also a great for forex traders to get exposure to gold because as gold prices rise, so does the Aussie dollar because Australia is one of the largest exporters of gold in the world.
The kiwi is also worth watching due to its intense correlation to stock prices. You can bet that if the S&P 500 is making new advances the kiwi is performing well against the US dollar. The kiwi recently touched a year-to-date high against the greenback, but couldn’t hold the gains, but the NZD/USD should still be on your watch list either for a long trade or an easy short if stocks start to retreat. Kiwi also rises with commodities demand, even though New Zealand is not known for production or exports of any one commodity in particular.
The bottom line is if you’re going to trade forex, you should keep all of your options open and with current market conditions conducive to a bull run in the Aussie dollar, that currency should be at the top of your list.
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