EUR/USD Is Ending Its Bullish Correction?

Euro/Dollar had another positive week, but it failed to break above the important long term resistance line. Also the short term trends show an exhaustion. Will it turn down?

EUR/USD began a strong upwards move on last week’s Non-Farm Payrolls but couldn’t break the resistance line. These moves came on top of US weakness and not on an improvement in Europe. Yohay already wrote about these issues earlier this week on forexcrunch . Now let’s look at another technical aspect.



Looking at the hourly chart, we can see a rising uptrend channel that accompanied the Euro in the past week. This can be seen in the graph. The top of this uptrend channel was challenged more than 3 times, and is very clear. As the Euro climbed upwards, it closely followed this top border.

The bottom border of this line was approached three times. While the pair stayed away from this line during most of the week, it closed at 1.2639, quite close to it. Together with the failure to making a convincing break above 1.2672 (which was the peak on May 21st) and settling at the bottom of the uptrend channel, this shows again that EUR/USD is out of air.

Apart for the regular events that are expecting us (detailed in the Euro dollar forecasts), there’s a very important one-time event on July 23rd – results of the bank stress tests. This will determine how the European banks are dealing with the debt crisis, the big issue looming over the Euro-zone in the past few months.

USD/CAD Weekly Technical Forecast (June 21-25 2010)

The loonie enjoyed risk appetite for a second week in a row. This week consists of key indicators for the next rate decision. Here’s an outlook for Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD, which is closer to parity once again.

USD/CAD chart with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:



The markets disregard the European trouble (with focus now on Spain again) and seek “risky” currencies. The Canadian dollar also enjoys the rising price of oil, and his its eyes on parity. Prices need to rise in other areas in order to push inflation. Let’s start:

1. CPI: Published on Tuesday at 11:00 GMT. A rise in the consumer price index is necessary for further rate hikes, after the BOC made its first move. Current inflation conditions are still tame. CPI rose by 0.3% last month after remaining unchanged beforehand, and Core CPI, which is also closely watched by the central bank, also rose by 0.3%. More modest rises are expected this time.


2. Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This major consumer indicator made a surprising jump last month – 2.1% instead of 0.2% that was predicted. Also the core figure was a big surprise, jumping by 1.7%. Yet again, the expectations remain modest, with a rises of less than 1% predicted in both indicators.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The Canadian dollar continued the trend from last week, and after falling below 1.04, USD/CAD continued to fall gradually towards the next support line – 1.02, which it closed very close to, at 1.0210.

1.02 continues to be a dominant line – this was the 2009 low and also a line of resistance when the pair reached parity. A break below 1.02 will send the pair towards minor support at 1.01 (a line that was added on last week’s outlook).

Below 1.01 comes the ultimate support line – parity. USD/CAD parity was last seen in April but didn’t hold for too long. Lower, 0.98 is a minor line of support, followed by 0.97. A bigger surge in oil prices is necessary for the pair to approach these areas.

Looking up, the immediate resistance line is at 1.0560, which served as a line of support and resistance in recent weeks. Higher, 1.0750 was the high line of long time range, and was also tested about a month ago. It’s followed by 1.0850, which was a swing high before the pair went lower.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

As the fear factor leaves the markets, the Canadian dollar, with a growing economy, receives the strength it deserves. Next stop – parity.

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Fundamental Analysis On Forex Trading

It has become imperative for every forex trader to learn how to predict the price trend and which method or software is the best.

When you do forex trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on money policy, government policy and economic indicators such as GDP, exports, imports etc within a business cycle framework while technical analysis focuses on price action and market behavior, especially on chart and technical indicators.

Needless to say both schools are equally disparaging about the other, and both believe their techniques are infinitely superior. But the reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on the various signals derived from the price action on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or the myriad of societal issues that influence prices.

Generally speaking, fundamental analysis can only judge which direction the market will move, and technical analysis can supply both direction and rough currency rate.

Keeping in mind that the financial underpinnings of any country, trading bloc or multinational industry takes into account many factors, including social, political and economic influences, staying on top of an extremely fluid fundamental picture can be challenging. Meanwhile, forecasting models are as numerous and varied as the traders and market buffs that create them. Different people can look at the exact same data and come up with two completely different conclusions about how the market will be influenced by it. At the end, some may make huge profit and some lose their money. You can not say fundamental analysis is easy.

Remember, fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. For example, when analyzing an economist's forecast of the upcoming GDP or employment report, you begin to get a fairly clear picture of the general health of the economy and the forces at work behind it. However, you'll need to come up with a precise method as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.

Tip: If you are new to do forex trading and do not trade frequently, you can mainly use fundamental analysis for your trading.

Don't disturb yourself by information overload. Sometimes traders fall into this trap and are unable to pull the trigger on a trade. Normally, your first feel is the answer for you to do forex trading. At that time, you are sure which currency is strong and which country's economy is good. The more simple, the more useful.

However, trading a particular market without knowing a great deal about the exact nature of its underlying elements is unbelievable. You might get lucky and snare a few on occasion but it's not the best approach over the long haul.

For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is very important to understand fundamental analysis and use them on forex trading.

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FOREX Fundamental Analysis Defination with Description.

Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.

Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.

Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.

Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.

There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.

There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.

Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.

Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.

International Trade - If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.

The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.

In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.

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Forex Charts - Make Bigger Profits by Following These Key Points

Forex charts are a great, time efficient and proven way to make bigger profits but most traders don't use them correctly and here we will give you some key points to help you make bigger profits...

Let's look at some key points for more profitable technical analysis with forex charts.

If you look at any forex chart you will see big trends that can last for many months and trend following these can be very profitable and if you want to make money out of them you must understand this key fact:

Most big trends start and continue from breakouts to new highs and lows on the chart and you must go with these breaks - most traders don't. They want to wait for the pullback and of course it never comes and they are left behind. While it appears like you have missed the first part of the move, the odds of continuation are high so go with them.

Always be patient when using forex charts. You don't get rewarded for your efforts or how many times you trade but being right with your trading signal. I know traders who trade just a few times a month yet make triple digit gains - so wait for the right opportunities.

When you have a trend you want to hit always check price momentum is on your side and make sure that you use momentum indicators that show price acceleration in the direction you wish to trade. Two great ones, you can learn, in about 30 minutes are - the stochastic and RSI. These two combined will increase your odds of success by getting the odds more on your side.

Never believe anyone who tells you there is a mathematical formula for market movement - there isn't. If of course there was, we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market. So forget trying to predict and only trade the reality of price.

Its probabilities that you need to understand and like a successful poker player, you won't win every hand - but if you keep trading the odds, you will win long term. When using forex charts, the simpler your forex trading method the better, as simple systems tend to be very robust and have fewer elements to break, than complicated ones.

I have used a simple breakout method which uses trend lines, RSI and the stochastic and made money with it for over 20 years sure, it's simple but it works. Forex charts give you the reality of price before your eyes and you can spot areas of over valuation and under valuation. Humans create trends and they also (due to their emotions) push trends to far up or down in either direction.

You can of course ride trends - but you will also see big price spikes and history tells you they don't last long and taking trades contrary to the majority can be very profitable. Charting is an art not a science and you need to practice your art. The successful captain of a ship uses charts to navigate safely, but he also knows that use them wrongly and he will drown and it's a very similar situation in forex.

The Good News

You can learn forex charting in around 2 weeks and soon be piling up big profits in around 30 minutes a day spotting and hitting high odds trades and enjoying great profits. The good news is forex trading and using technical analysis is a learned skill and one you can master with a little practice.

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Best Non-Farm Payrolls in Past 13 Years?

The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls release on June 4th holds high expectations – a job gain of 500K jobs, the best since 1997, but this includes special government hiring. Here are the things to watch for in this release, and the expected impact on currencies.

It’s important to stress that the Non-Farm Payrolls release is the most volatile event in forex trading, and causes very high volatility. I suggest you read my 5 notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading. The comment regarding the risk factor is very important these days. OK, let’s see what’s special this time:


The decennial government census already had an impact on previous Non-Farm Payrolls releases. The impact will come to a climax in June 4th’s report. Previous months were dedicated for preparations, and this reported month, May, is when the census was held.

So, a big bulk of the gain in jobs comes from the government. Private sector hiring is only a small part of this month’s report, but it’s of high importance, as it serves as the core value, only slightly affected by the census, and supplying a long-term value.

The markets will pay less importance to the headline number, but rather focus on hiring in the private sector, which is expected to reach 180,000.

Contradicting rise in the unemployment rate

Last month saw a huge leap of 290K jobs, far better than expected. The figure for the previous month was also revised to the upside. But the unemployment rate jumped from 9.7% to 9.9%, very close to the scary 10% figure.

Despite the huge gain expected in jobs in the public sector, and the neat gain in jobs in the private sector, the unemployment rate is expected to drop by only 0.1% to 9.8%. The best explanation for last month’s rise and this month’s expected small dip is that the deep crisis sent many people off charts. As they stopped being part of the workforce, they didn’t contribute to the unemployment rate.

Now that they’re starting to get back, they enlarge the total workforce in a similar scale to the gain in jobs, thus leaving the unemployment rate almost unchanged.

Impact on forex trading

Yet again, this seems to be another win-win situation for the dollar, especially in the Euro/Dollar and the Pound/Dollar. If the results come as expected, it will be another sign of the American economy’s strength. This strength stands out against the great European weakness and against the Pound that follows it.

On the other hand, the Canadian and Australian economies are also doing quite well, and could still rise after this result. AUD/USD has lots of room to rise after the recent falls, driven mostly by risk aversive action. A good NFP will trigger risk appetite behavior and send the Aussie up.

Canada expects a busy week, with a possible rate hike, GDP numbers and employment figures just 90 minutes before the NFP. If Canadian numbers are OK, USD/CAD could fall.

Scenarios for surprises – dollar strength expected.

A disappointing outcome of the Non-Farm Payrolls or a rise of the unemployment rate above 10% could trigger risk aversive trading across the board, hurting also stronger currencies. We’ve seen the dollar rise after weak GDP and weak jobless claims last week. In these chaotic days, bad news, even if they come from the US, trigger dollar buying.

The opposite scenario, of a big drop in the unemployment rate and an even-higher gain in jobs, the dollar will stand out against all the currencies, and will fully justify its safe haven status.

We have lots of other major events before Friday’s NFP. How do you see the Non-Farm Payrolls unfold for forex trading?

GBP/JPy Daily Technical Forecast (May-24-2010)

As you can see on my h1 chart below, the GBPJPY slipped above the bearish channel indicating a serious threat to the bearish scenario but price so far unable to move consistently above the channel. Although nearest term pressure is now more to the upside, price still trapped in range area of 130.80 - 128.00. We need a clear break above 130.80 to continue the bullish scenario testing 132.80 region. On the other hand, Break below 128.00 could resume the major bearish scenario testing 126.75 region.

GBP/JPy Daily Technical Forecast (May-24-2010)

As you can see on my h1 chart below, the GBPJPY slipped above the bearish channel indicating a serious threat to the bearish scenario but price so far unable to move consistently above the channel. Although nearest term pressure is now more to the upside, price still trapped in range area of 130.80 - 128.00. We need a clear break above 130.80 to continue the bullish scenario testing 132.80 region. On the other hand, Break below 128.00 could resume the major bearish scenario testing 126.75 region.

Money Management Strategy in Forex or Stock

This article deals with one of the most important aspects of trading - money management.

Although there are plenty of trading systems and trading strategies with good win/loss ratio, proper money management can change the outcome of the net profit amount for any trading system.

Essentially, money management strategy is a statistical tool to control the risk exposure and profit potential when we enter into a trade; and by applying it, we can control our emotions and lack of plan (the main reason why most of traders lose their money).



The importance of determine a stop-loss

C.O.N.T.R.O.L... When a trader lose control the results are often disastrous. Many traders often enter the market with a profit target, but without a clearly defined protective stop-loss.

With a pre-determined profit target and a pre-determined stop-loss, you know where you will get out if you are wrong and where you will get out if you are right. In other words, you have control.

Diversification - Trade more then one currency pair

When trading more then one currency pair, i.e. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD atc., each pair would have a different stop-loss and profit target. With multiple currency pairs, each having a different entry and exit points you can smooth your system equity curve so your account draw-downs will be smaller.

Note: It's important that you diversify your orders between currencies that have low correlation.

Case study - Fixed Ratio With Fixed Number of Trades

Money management is the most significant part of any trading system. Our Forex money management strategy is simple to implement, conservative and practical when combined with one of our trading tutorials strategies.

First of all, you should understand the following terms:

Fixed Risk Ratio
Never risk more than 2% of your account size on any single currency pair, if possible, risk less. Plus, never risk more than 10% in any complex of open positions, on any given day. For any given trade you must know how much you will lose if the market goes against you.

Example - According to our money management strategy, you should be risking no more then 2% of you balance per single trade. So, if you start with $1,000 account size you may lose up to $20 in one trade, i.e. If the trade is stopped, you will lose $20 which is 2% of your initial balance.

Please note: You can open up to 5 parallel trades (other pairs), at the same time - max risk = 10% from your initial balance.

Fixed Number of Trades
The "fixed number of trades" parameter derives from the trading system profitable factor, as follows:

Trading System Percent Profitable (no. of winning trades / total no. of trades)	fixed Number of Trades
60%	40
65%	35
70%	30
75%	25
80%	20
85%	15

Forex money management strategy implementation

Now that we have these two parameters (the fixed risk ratio and the fixed number of trades), let's make an example:

• Account size = $2,500


• Fixed Risk Ratio = 2%


• Fixed Number of Trades = 30 (we use trading system with 70% winning trades expectation - see table above).

In this case we can lose up to $50 ($2,500 * 2%) at any given trade for the next 30 actual trades. Then, after 30 trades we will re-calculate our maximum risk amount, i.e., if the new account size is now $3,000, we can afford to lose up to $60 at any given trade for the following 30 trades, and so on.

Basically, we re-calculate the risk amount (based on the fixed risk ratio and account balance) after each fixed number of trades, in this example, 30.

Note: You can adapt this money management strategy to fit smaller or bigger trading accounts, providing you stick to the 2% risk rule.

Essential Elements of a Successful Trader

Courage Under Stressful Conditions When the Outcome is Uncertain

All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.

You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.

However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.

Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.

Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.

The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.

For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.

The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).

So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.

Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?

If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.

Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus

Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.

To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.

How to Limit Your Risk In Forex.

If you’ve traded any security, you’ve heard the old axiom about keeping your losers to a minimum and letting your winners run. The latter part of that expression is self explanatory. Most forex traders know that they don’t want to cut their winning trades. Simply keep moving your stops up as the trade continues to move in your favor and you’ll be on course for locking some nice profits. Cutting losing trades before they turn into disasters is what many traders struggle with when they enter the world of online forex trading. Bailing on any trade, winner or loser, is an emotional thing for traders, especially rookies, but it should be mechanical, not emotional.

Keeping your losses to a minimum is perhaps the most important thing you’ll do on your road to learning forex trading. We’ve all heard the statistic that 90% of all traders fail and that number is so high because many traders don’t know how to keep their losses to a minimum. Minimizing losers is integral the development of any forex trading strategy. And when we say keep your losses small, we’re not necessarily talking about the amount of losing trades you have. We’re talking about the dollar amount of those losers. After all, it’s possible to take 10 forex trades and have seven losers and still end up profitable. Yet, the only way to do this is keep the losses small in dollar terms.

So how does someone that has just taken on learning forex trading go about keeping his losses small? The first thing to do is understand the risk-reward profile of each trade. Let’s say you’re trading a heavily traded pair like the EUR/USD during an especially volatile time, maybe after unemployment data has come out. Here your risk-reward profile maybe a little different than during a calmer market period. If you see that risking $1 to only make $1, that’s not a trade worth taking. Optimal risk-reward would be risking $1 to make at least $2, if not $3.

That’s just one part of the equation, though. Many seasoned forex traders will also set strict risk parameters for each trade they take. For example, a veteran trader that has $10,000 in his forex brokerage account might limit his risk to three percent on every trade. Meaning that if his trade goes against him by $300, he’s out, no questions asked. Think about that for a minute. If you’re trading a standard forex lot where each pip is worth $10 and you’re willing to lose $300 on the trade, that’s 30 pips so you’re giving the trade plenty of room to breath while still being fairly conservative.

There’s no hard and fast rule for how much a forex trader should be willing to lose on a particular trade. If you’ve got $100,000 in your brokerage account, you can be a lot more liberal than you can with $10,000. The point is keeping your losses small is what’s going to keep you in the game.

How to find new pairs for trade...

By nature, traders, forex or otherwise, can be creatures of habit. That is if we find something that works, we stick with it until it stops working. As it pertains to forex trading, this includes the pairs we trade. Many forex traders get into the game and focus on just one or two of the major pairs. This strategy is acceptable for beginners, but as your acumen increases, it might be a good idea to start looking for other pairs to make some pips. Rookie forex traders often focus on the Euro/US dollar (EUR/USD) and maybe one other major pair like the British pound/dollar (GBP/USD), but if you’re going to trade forex, you should be aware all of the opportunities available to you.

Two major pairs that tend to fall under the radar of a lot of forex traders are the Australian dollar/US dollar (AUD/USD) and New Zealand dollar/US dollar (NZD/USD). This is a shame because both the Aussie dollar and New Zealand dollar (also known as the kiwi) are two of most volatile currencies in the market and when traded properly, they can make traders a lot of pips. Your first order of business should be ensuring that your forex broker gives you access to these pairs. Most of the top forex brokers will as these are major pairs, but better to be safe than sorry.

Under current market conditions, the Aussie dollar and kiwi are definitely worth a look. Remember that as global equities rise, particularly US and Chinese stocks, risk appetite in the forex market increases and that means forex investors flee safe-haven currencies like the US dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc for riskier, higher-yielding assets like the Aussie dollar and kiwi.

In fact, several currency analysis reports have noted recently that the Aussie dollar is the most fundamentally sound of all the major currencies. Australia’s economy didn’t suffer during the global slowdown at the level that other major economies did and the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates relatively high, which has served to bolster the Aussie dollar’s fortunes. The Aussie dollar is also a great for forex traders to get exposure to gold because as gold prices rise, so does the Aussie dollar because Australia is one of the largest exporters of gold in the world.

The kiwi is also worth watching due to its intense correlation to stock prices. You can bet that if the S&P 500 is making new advances the kiwi is performing well against the US dollar. The kiwi recently touched a year-to-date high against the greenback, but couldn’t hold the gains, but the NZD/USD should still be on your watch list either for a long trade or an easy short if stocks start to retreat. Kiwi also rises with commodities demand, even though New Zealand is not known for production or exports of any one commodity in particular.

The bottom line is if you’re going to trade forex, you should keep all of your options open and with current market conditions conducive to a bull run in the Aussie dollar, that currency should be at the top of your list.

Pivot Point.

You are going to love this lesson. Using pivot points as a trading strategy has been around for a long time and was originally used by floor traders. This was a nice simple way for floor traders to have some idea of where the market was heading during the course of the day with only a few simple calculations. The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Using some simple arithmetic and the previous days high, low and close, a series of points are derived. These points can be critical support and resistance levels. The pivot level, support and resistance levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels.

Every day the market you are following has an open, high, low and a close for the day (some markets like forex are 24 hours but generally use 5pm EST as the open and close). This information basically contains all the data you need to use pivot points.

The reason pivot points are so popular is that they are predictive as opposed to lagging. You use the information of the previous day to calculate potential turning points for the day you are about to trade (present day).

Because so many traders follow pivot points you will often find that the market reacts at these levels. This give you an opportunity to trade.

If you would rather work the pivot points out by yourself, the formula I use is below:

Resistance 3 = High + 2*(Pivot - Low)
Resistance 2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)
Resistance 1 = 2 * Pivot - Low
Pivot Point = ( High + Close + Low )/3
Support 1 = 2 * Pivot - High
Support 2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)
Support 3 = Low - 2*(High - Pivot)

As you can see from the above formula, just by having the previous days high, low and close you eventually finish up with 7 points, 3 resistance levels, 3 support levels and the actual pivot point.

If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is long trades. If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is for short trades.

The three most important pivot points are R1, S1 and the actual pivot point.

The general idea behind trading pivot points are to look for a reversal or break of R1 or S1. By the time the market reaches R2,R3 or S2,S3 the market will already be overbought or oversold and these levels should be used for exits rather than entries.

A perfect set would be for the market to open above the pivot level and then stall slightly at R1 then go on to R2. You would enter on a break of R1 with a target of R2 and if the market was really strong close half at R2 and target R3 with the remainder of your position. Unfortunately life is not that simple and we have to deal with each trading day the best way we can. I have picked a day at random from last week and what follows are some ideas on how you could have traded that day using pivot points. On the 12th August 04 the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) had the following: High - 1.2297 Low - 1.2213 Close - 1.2249 This gave us: Resistance 3 = 1.2377 Resistance 2 = 1.2337 Resistance 1 = 1.2293 Pivot Point = 1.2253 Support 1 = 1.2209 Support 2 = 1.2169 Support 3 = 1.2125 Have a look at the 5 minute chart below The green line is the pivot point. The blue lines are resistance levels R1,R2 and R3. The red lines are support levels S1,S2 and S3. There are loads of ways to trade this day using pivot points but I shall walk you through a few of them and discuss why some are good in certain situations and why some are bad. The Breakout Trade At the beginning of the day we were below the pivot point, so our bias is for short trades. A channel formed so you would be looking for a break out of the channel, preferably to the downside. In this type of trade you would have your sell entry order just below the lower channel line with a stop order just above the upper channel line and a target of S1. The problem on this day was that, S1 was very close to the breakout level and there was just not enough meat in the trade (13 pips). This is a good entry technique for you. Just because it was not suitable this day, does not mean it will not be suitable the next day. The Pullback Trade This is one of my favorite set ups. The market passes through S1 and then pulls back. An entry order is placed below support, which in this case was the most recent low before the pullback. A stop is then placed above the pullback (the most recent high - peak) and a target set for S2. The problem again, on this day was that the target of S2 was to close, and the market never took out the previous support, which tells us that, the market sentiment is beginning to change. Breakout of Resistance As the day progressed, the market started heading back up to S1 and formed a channel (congestion area). This is another good set up for a trade. An entry order is placed just above the upper channel line, with a stop just below the lower channel line and the first target would be the pivot line. If you where trading more than one position, then you would close out half your position as the market approaches the pivot line, tighten your stop and then watch market action at that level. As it happened, the market never stopped and your second target then became R1. This was also easily achieved and I would have closed out the rest of the position at that level. Advanced As I mentioned earlier, there are lots of ways to trade with pivot points. A more advanced method is to use the cross of two moving averages as a confirmation of a breakout. You can even use combinations of indicators to help you make a decision. It might be the cross of two averages and also MACD must be in buy mode. Mess around with a few of your favorite indicators but remember the signal is a break of a level and the indicators are just confirmation. We haven't even got into patterns around pivot levels or failures but that is not the point of this lesson

Pivot Point.

You are going to love this lesson. Using pivot points as a trading strategy has been around for a long time and was originally used by floor traders. This was a nice simple way for floor traders to have some idea of where the market was heading during the course of the day with only a few simple calculations. The pivot point is the level at which the market direction changes for the day. Using some simple arithmetic and the previous days high, low and close, a series of points are derived. These points can be critical support and resistance levels. The pivot level, support and resistance levels calculated from that are collectively known as pivot levels.

Every day the market you are following has an open, high, low and a close for the day (some markets like forex are 24 hours but generally use 5pm EST as the open and close). This information basically contains all the data you need to use pivot points.

The reason pivot points are so popular is that they are predictive as opposed to lagging. You use the information of the previous day to calculate potential turning points for the day you are about to trade (present day).

Because so many traders follow pivot points you will often find that the market reacts at these levels. This give you an opportunity to trade.

If you would rather work the pivot points out by yourself, the formula I use is below:

Resistance 3 = High + 2*(Pivot - Low)
Resistance 2 = Pivot + (R1 - S1)
Resistance 1 = 2 * Pivot - Low
Pivot Point = ( High + Close + Low )/3
Support 1 = 2 * Pivot - High
Support 2 = Pivot - (R1 - S1)
Support 3 = Low - 2*(High - Pivot)

As you can see from the above formula, just by having the previous days high, low and close you eventually finish up with 7 points, 3 resistance levels, 3 support levels and the actual pivot point.

If the market opens above the pivot point then the bias for the day is long trades. If the market opens below the pivot point then the bias for the day is for short trades.

The three most important pivot points are R1, S1 and the actual pivot point.

The general idea behind trading pivot points are to look for a reversal or break of R1 or S1. By the time the market reaches R2,R3 or S2,S3 the market will already be overbought or oversold and these levels should be used for exits rather than entries.

A perfect set would be for the market to open above the pivot level and then stall slightly at R1 then go on to R2. You would enter on a break of R1 with a target of R2 and if the market was really strong close half at R2 and target R3 with the remainder of your position. Unfortunately life is not that simple and we have to deal with each trading day the best way we can. I have picked a day at random from last week and what follows are some ideas on how you could have traded that day using pivot points. On the 12th August 04 the Euro/Dollar (EUR/USD) had the following: High - 1.2297 Low - 1.2213 Close - 1.2249 This gave us: Resistance 3 = 1.2377 Resistance 2 = 1.2337 Resistance 1 = 1.2293 Pivot Point = 1.2253 Support 1 = 1.2209 Support 2 = 1.2169 Support 3 = 1.2125 Have a look at the 5 minute chart below The green line is the pivot point. The blue lines are resistance levels R1,R2 and R3. The red lines are support levels S1,S2 and S3. There are loads of ways to trade this day using pivot points but I shall walk you through a few of them and discuss why some are good in certain situations and why some are bad. The Breakout Trade At the beginning of the day we were below the pivot point, so our bias is for short trades. A channel formed so you would be looking for a break out of the channel, preferably to the downside. In this type of trade you would have your sell entry order just below the lower channel line with a stop order just above the upper channel line and a target of S1. The problem on this day was that, S1 was very close to the breakout level and there was just not enough meat in the trade (13 pips). This is a good entry technique for you. Just because it was not suitable this day, does not mean it will not be suitable the next day. The Pullback Trade This is one of my favorite set ups. The market passes through S1 and then pulls back. An entry order is placed below support, which in this case was the most recent low before the pullback. A stop is then placed above the pullback (the most recent high - peak) and a target set for S2. The problem again, on this day was that the target of S2 was to close, and the market never took out the previous support, which tells us that, the market sentiment is beginning to change. Breakout of Resistance As the day progressed, the market started heading back up to S1 and formed a channel (congestion area). This is another good set up for a trade. An entry order is placed just above the upper channel line, with a stop just below the lower channel line and the first target would be the pivot line. If you where trading more than one position, then you would close out half your position as the market approaches the pivot line, tighten your stop and then watch market action at that level. As it happened, the market never stopped and your second target then became R1. This was also easily achieved and I would have closed out the rest of the position at that level. Advanced As I mentioned earlier, there are lots of ways to trade with pivot points. A more advanced method is to use the cross of two moving averages as a confirmation of a breakout. You can even use combinations of indicators to help you make a decision. It might be the cross of two averages and also MACD must be in buy mode. Mess around with a few of your favorite indicators but remember the signal is a break of a level and the indicators are just confirmation. We haven't even got into patterns around pivot levels or failures but that is not the point of this lesson

Forex V/S Stock Market...

Forex versus Stocks

Forex versus Stocks Advantages
Advantage	Forex	Stocks
24-hour Trading	YES	NO
Commission Free Trading	YES	NO
Instant Execution of Market Orders	YES	NO
Short-Selling without an Uptick	YES	NO

24-Hour Market

The Forex market is a seamless 24-hour market. Most brokers are open from Sunday at 2PM EST until Friday at 4 PM EST with customer service available 24/7. With the ability to trade during the U.S., Asian, and European market hours, you can customize your own trading schedule.

Commission Free Trading

Most Forex brokers charge no commission or additional transactions fees to trade currencies online or over the phone. Combined with the tight, consistent, and fully transparent spread, Forex trading costs are lower than those of any other market. The brokers are compensated for theirs services through the bid/ask prices.

Instantaneous Execution of Market Orders

Your trades are instantly executed under normal market conditions. You also have price certainty on every market order under normal market conditions. What you click is the price you get. You’re able to execute directly off real-time streaming prices (Yeeeaah!). There's no discrepancy between the displayed price shown on the platform and the execution price to enter your trade. Keep in mind that most brokers only guarantee stop, limit, and entry orders are only guaranteed under normal market conditions. Fills are instantaneous most of the time, but under extraordinarily volatile market conditions order execution may experience delays.

Short-Selling without an Uptick

Unlike the equity market, there is no restriction on short selling in the currency market. Trading opportunities exist in the currency market regardless of whether a trader is long or short, or which way the market is moving. Since currency trading always involves buying one currency and selling another, there is no structural bias to the market. So you always have equal access to trade in a rising or falling market.

More Reasons to Like Forex

No Middlemen

Centralized exchanges provide many advantages to the trader. However, one of the problems with any centralized exchange is the involvement of middlemen. Any party located in between the trader and the buyer or seller of the security or instrument traded will cost them money. The cost can be either in time or in fees. Spot currency trading does away with the middlemen and allows clients to interact directly with the market-maker responsible for the pricing on a particular currency pair. Forex traders get quicker access and cheaper costs.

Buy/Sell programs do not control the market

How many times have you heard that "fund A" was selling "X" or buying "Z"? Rumor had it that the funds were taking profits because of the end of the financial year or because today is "triple witching day", all as an explanation of why this stock is up or the market in general is down or positive on the session. The stock market is very susceptible to large fund buying and selling.

In spot trading, the liquidity of the Forex market makes the likelihood of any one fund or bank to control a particular currency very slim. Banks, hedge funds, governments, retail currency conversion houses and large net-worth individuals are just some of the participants in the spot currency markets where the liquidity is unprecedented.

Analysts and brokerage firms are less likely to influence the market

Have you watched TV lately? Heard about a certain Internet stock and an analyst of a prestigious brokerage firm accused of keeping its recommendations, such as "buy" when the stock was rapidly declining? It is the nature of these relationships. No matter what the government does to step in and discourage this type of activity, we have not heard the last of it.

IPO's are big business for both the companies going public and the brokerage houses. Relationships are mutually beneficial and analysts work for the brokerage houses that need the companies as clients. That catch-22 will never disappear.

Foreign exchange, as the prime market, generates billions in revenue for the world's banks and is a necessity of the global markets. Analysts in foreign exchange don't drive the deal flow, they just analyze the forex market.

8,000 stocks versus 4 major currency pairs

There are approximately 4,500 stocks listed on the New York Stock exchange. Another 3,500 are listed on the NASDAQ. Which one will you trade? Got the time to stay on top of so many companies? In spot currency trading, there are dozens of currencies traded, but the majority of the market trades the 4 major pairs.  Aren’t four pairs much easier to keep an eye on than thousands of stocks?  I’d say so.

Advantages of the Forex Market...

What are the advantages of the Forex Market over other types of investments?

When thinking about various investments, there is one investment vehicle that comes to mind. The Forex or Foreign Currency Market has many advantages over other types of investments. The Forex market is open 24 hrs a day, unlike the regular stock markets. Most investments require a substantial amount of capital before you can take advantage of an investment opportunity. To trade Forex, you only need a small amount of capital. Anyone can enter the market with as little as $300 USD to trade a "mini account", which allows you to trade lots of 10,000 units. One lot of 10,000 units of currency is equal to 1 contract. Each "pip" or move up or down in the currency pair is worth a $1 gain or loss, depending on which side of the market you are on. A standard account gives you control over 100,000 units of currency and a pip is worth $10.

The Forex market is also very liquid. When trading Forex you have full control of your capital.

Many other types of investments require holding your money up for long periods of time. This is a disadvantage because if you need to use the capital it can be difficult to access to it without taking a huge loss. Also, with a small amount of money, you can control

Forex traders can be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit. Forex traders can make a profit during up trends and downtrends. Forex Trading can be risky, but with having the ability to have a good system to follow, good money management skills, and possessing self discipline, Forex trading can be a relatively low risk investment.

The Forex market can be traded anytime, anywhere. As long as you have access to a computer, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important thing to remember is before jumping into trading currencies, is it wise to practice with "paper money", or "fake money." Most brokers have demo accounts where you can download their trading station and practice real time with fake money. While this is no guarantee of your performance with real money, practicing can give you a huge advantage to become better prepared when you trade with your real, hard earned money. There are also many Forex courses on the internet, just be careful when choosing which ones to purchase.

How To Read Forex Charts: 5 Things You Must Know...

Learning the basic skills in forex, such as how to read forex charts, is really important.

This is because once you have this vital skill under your belt, it will be a lot easier and quicker when the time comes for you to learn and practice an actual forex trading system.

By the time you finish this article, you'll learn how to read forex charts, as well as know the pitfalls that can occur when reading them, especially if you haven't traded forex before.

Firstly, let's revise the basics of a forex trading as this relates directly to how to reade forex charts.

Each currency pair is always quoted in the same way. For example, the EURUSD currency pair is always as EURUSD, with the EUR being the base currency, and the USD being the terms currency, not the other way round with the USD first. Therefore if the chart of the EURUSD shows that the current price is fluctuating around 1.2155, this means that 1 EURO will buy around 1.2155 US dollars.

And your trade size (face value) is the amount of base currency that you're trading. In this example, if you want to buy 100 000 EURUSD, you're buying 100 000 EUROs.

Now let's have a look at the 5 important steps on how to read a forex chart:

1. If you buy the currency pair, that is, you're long the position, realise that you're looking for the chart of that currency pair to go up, to make a profit on the trade. That is, you want the base currency to strengthen against the terms currency.

On the other hand if you sell the currency pair to short the position, then you're looking for the chart of that currency pair to go down, to make a profit. That is, you want the base currency to weaken against the terms currency.

Pretty simple so far.

2. Always check the time frame displayed. Many trading systems will use multiple time frames to determine the entry of a trade. For example, a system may use a 4 hour and a 30 minute chart to determine the overall trend of the currency pair by using indicators such as MACD, momentum, or support and resistance lines, and then a 5 minute chart to look for a rise from a temporary dip to determine the actual entry.

So ensure that the chart you're looking at has the correct time frame for your analysis. The best way to do this is to set up your charts with the correct time frames and indicators on them for the system you're trading, and to save and reuse this layout.

3. On most forex charts, it is the BID price rather than the ask price that's displayed on the chart. Remember that a price is always quoted with a bid and an ask (or offer). For example, the current price of EURUSD may be 1.2055 bid and 1.2058 ask (or offer). When you buy, you buy at the ask, which is the higher of the 2 prices in the spread, and when you sell, you sell at the bid, which is the lower of the two prices.

If you use the chart price to determine an entry or exit, realise that when you place an order to sell when the chart price is say 1.330, then this is the price that you'll sell at assuming no slippage.

If on the other hand, you place an order to buy when the chart price is the same price, then you'll actually buy at 1.3333. A forex system will often determine whether your orders will be placed simply according to the chart price or whether you need to add a buffer when buying or selling.

Also note that on many platforms, when you're placing stop orders (to buy if the price rises above a certain price, or sell when the price falls below a certain price) you can select either "stop if bid" or "stop if offered".

4. Realise that the times shown on the bottom of forex charts are set to the particular time zone that the forex provider's charts are set to, be it GMT, New York time, or other time zones.

It's handy to have a world clock available on your computer desktop in order to convert the different time zones. This is important when you're trading major economic announcements.

You'll need to convert the time of an announcement to your local time, and the chart time, so you'll know when the announcement is going to happen, and therefore when you need to trade.

5. Finally, check whether the times on your forex charts corresponds to when the candle opens or when the candle closes. Your charting software may be different to someone else's in this way.

The reason I mention this, is that if you need to trade major economic announcements, either by entering a trade based on the movements that happen after the announcement, or to exit a trade before the announcement in avoid getting stopped out during it, then you need to be precise (to the minute!) as these trades are performed according to what happens at the 1 minute immediately after the announcement, not the candle afterwards!

So there you have it.

You now have the 5 essential keys to how to properly read forex charts, which will help you to avoid the common mistakes which many forex beginners make when looking at charts, and which will speed up your progress when you're looking at forex charting packages, and forex trading systems that you want to trade!

What Does Discipline Mean in Forex Trading?

Everybody has a different definition for discipline.  Most people think that discipline means seriousness in doing something. This is true but discipline has a wider meaning when it comes to forex trading.

In forex trading, discipline means following your trading system rules exactly and precisely. Over 95% of forex traders lose, not because they do not have a good trading system or they have not learned the techniques. They lose because they fail to follow their trading system rules. They lose because they have no discipline. When you ask them about the techniques, indicators and systems they use, they explain very well, but when you ask them about their performance and results, you will see that they are not profitable yet.

• Do you trade without setting a proper Stoploss?


• Do you make your stop loss wider when it is about to be triggered by the market?


• Do you trade everyday, even when there is no strong trade setup?


• Do you insist to take a position whenever you sit at the computer?


• Do you try a different trading strategy, time frame, indicator and… everyday?


• Do you take a position when you hear that someone else has the same position or some people say that a currency goes up/down against another currency?


• Do you close your positions before they hit the stop loss or target?


• Do you take too much risk?


• Do you overtrade?


• Do you overanalyze?


• Do you take a position because you need to make money?

If the answer of any of the above questions is positive, it means lack of discipline is your problem and you will keep on losing as long as you do not change yourself and you don’t trade like a disciplined trader. And finally you will give up and you will lose the chance of making money through forex trading for the rest of your life.

Who is a disciplined trader?

A disciplined trader…

• Has a well-developed and at the same time simple and practical system.


• Trades only when there is a strong and perfect trade setup. He doesn’t mind not to trade for several days. He is like a hunter. He doesn’t waste his bullets when he knows that the prey is not close enough.


• Doesn’t look for new trading systems everyday, because he has come to this conclusion long time ago that his own trading system is the best for him and he has the best result with it. He also knows that there is no Holly Grail system and “grass is not greener on the other side”.


• Sets a proper stop loss for each of his positions and never makes his stop loss wider when it is about to be triggered by the market.


• Never lets a profitable and nice trade to be converted to a losing position because of maximizing his profit and breaking the others’ records. He knows where he will be out as soon as he takes a position.


• Never tries to make a huge profit by taking too much risk. He is always loyal to his Risk/Reward and money management rules.


• Never gets upset when the market hits his “reasonable stop loss”.


• Never regrets when he misses a strong movement just because the trade setup that was formed before the movement, did not look strong and perfect enough.


• Doesn’t get overconfident when he achieves several winning trades or even several winning days, weeks, months and years.


• Doesn’t lose his confidence when he has a losing position, day or even week or month.


• Doesn’t take a position just because the others have the same position or he has read or heard from somewhere that a currency will go up/down against another currency.


• Doesn’t take any position based on his thoughts. He trades based on the signals that he sees on the charts.


• Doesn’t overanalyze.


• Doesn’t overtrade.


• Doesn’t see beyond obvious. He just sees the signal which is in front of his eyes.


• Is not greedy.


• Has no fear.


• Doesn’t exaggerate about his success.


• Is humble and helps the novice traders to find the right way easier. He never misleads the other traders, specially the novice ones. He is aware of “Karma”.


• Is…


• Doesn’t…


• Is…


• Doesn’t…

Are you such a person and trader or you are trying to make money through forex trading while you have not reached to such a level of confidence, discipline and personality?

Forex trading is not about the techniques and trading systems only. 90% of forex trading is related to the things that I explained above and this is what Forexoma members learn to achieve. They not only learn the techniques, but they learn to become a disciplined trader within the shortest time. I help them not to make the mistakes that 95% losing traders do, the mistakes that I also made when I started.

I tell them how I was about to give up at least for a few times, but I gave it one more try and finally I reached to the level that was described above

Hard-Working Versus Lazy Forex Traders..who are the best?

Everybody starts learning and trading forex at a different stage of his/her life. Almost all forex traders already had a full time job and forex trading is not the first job for all forex traders. It means we start learning and trading forex while we already have some experiences from the other jobs that we had and it is where the problem comes. Hardworking is one of the most important conditions in any job. The harder you work, the better result you get. But is this also true in forex trading?

The answer is no. In fact, forex trading is a job for lazy people. Hardworking in forex trading can be ended to loss. Forex trading is simpler than what we think, but we are used to make it really hard by trying to make money from a market that has not formed a trading opportunity yet. Based on our past experiences, we think we should spend several hours everyday in front of the computer, not to miss any trading opportunity. We also think that we should work with the smaller time frames to take the advantage of any up and down that the forex market has, but these are all wrong.

In forex trading, we should be smart but not hardworking. The only part in forex trading that can be considered as the hard part is that we analyze and monitor several currency pairs which is something that I agree, but spending several hours in front of the computer and analyzing the small time frames like 5min chart is not a good idea and will not make a living for you as a forex trader. Forex trading needs peace of mind and balance. When you spend so many hours at the computer waiting for the trade setups, you lose your balance and then you make mistake. Your mind realizes you that a trade setup is formed. You think you have predicted the direction of the market and as you do not want the hours that you have spent in front of the computer to go down the drain, you just take a position. Such a position is usually a losing position, because it is taken based on the emotions and illusions, not based on the signals and trade setups.

The bottom-line is if you like to cut your losses and become a profitable forex trader, you should work with the bigger time frames, you analyze the market for one hour everyday, if there is any forming trade setup, you set your alarm clock for the candlestick close and then come back and check the market to see if the trade setup is formed or it needs some more time

How to Trade Gold and USD Correlations??

Almost all forex traders know that Gold and US Dollar markets move against each others. It means when gold price goes down, USD goes up and visa versa. Therefore USD and gold are highly correlated and their correlation is even stronger and more reliable than the correlation that different currency pairs have. Now the question is if this strong correlation can be used in trading either gold or USD or both. The answer is yes. Gold and USD prices move against each other. When gold forms a buy signal, USD forms a sell signal, but the good thing is that sometimes the signals that one of them forms is ahead of the other one and so it can be used as a leading indicator to trade the other one.

The below chart shows the USD and gold price at the same time. As you see there are many cases that a support/resistance level breakout in gold is followed by a resistance/support level breakout on USD and visa versa. There are also many cases that they form an opposite signal almost at the same time, but even in those cases their signals can be used as confirmation to trade either gold or USD.



How to Trade Gold and USD Using the Gold-USD Correlation?

First, you have to open both gold and a USD cross currency pair (like USD-CHF) price charts on your trading platform at the same time. Both of the price charts have to be set to the same time frame, for example one hour. Then you have to analyze both of the price charts, based on the trading system that you have. For example I use support/resistance breakout. So all I have to do is finding a support/resistance line on one of the gold or USD-CHF price charts and waiting for the breakouts. Sometimes you can find a resistance line on gold, but you can not see any visible support line on USD-CHF. However, the resistance breakout on gold will be followed by a sell signal on USD-CHF and so when gold goes up, USD-CHF goes down. The resistance breakout on gold can be used as the confirmation of the sell signal on USD-CHF and visa versa. So you can trade any of them that you like, while you have a confirmation from the other one. Lets look at some examples.

On the below chart, a resistance breakout and so a buy signal formed on the gold one hour chart. While there is no special support line on USD-CHF price chart, it formed a strong sell signal by the candlesticks and went down strongly. Trade setups like this occur almost everyday on different time frames.



The below chart shows a case that a support breakout and so a sell signal formed on gold price chart, several hours before the resistance breakout on USD-CHF. A support breakout formed on gold 4 hours chart by 2010.01.12 20:00 candlestick. Although it went up to retest the broken support line, it finally formed a sell signal below the broken support line and also the Bollinger Middle Band by 2010.01.14 4:00 candlestick and started going down strongly. At the same time USD-CHF started going up too, but it broke above its only visible resistance line on the price chart, about 4 days after that.