USD/CAD Weekly Technical Forecast (June 21-25 2010)

The loonie enjoyed risk appetite for a second week in a row. This week consists of key indicators for the next rate decision. Here’s an outlook for Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD, which is closer to parity once again.

USD/CAD chart with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:



The markets disregard the European trouble (with focus now on Spain again) and seek “risky” currencies. The Canadian dollar also enjoys the rising price of oil, and his its eyes on parity. Prices need to rise in other areas in order to push inflation. Let’s start:

1. CPI: Published on Tuesday at 11:00 GMT. A rise in the consumer price index is necessary for further rate hikes, after the BOC made its first move. Current inflation conditions are still tame. CPI rose by 0.3% last month after remaining unchanged beforehand, and Core CPI, which is also closely watched by the central bank, also rose by 0.3%. More modest rises are expected this time.


2. Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This major consumer indicator made a surprising jump last month – 2.1% instead of 0.2% that was predicted. Also the core figure was a big surprise, jumping by 1.7%. Yet again, the expectations remain modest, with a rises of less than 1% predicted in both indicators.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The Canadian dollar continued the trend from last week, and after falling below 1.04, USD/CAD continued to fall gradually towards the next support line – 1.02, which it closed very close to, at 1.0210.

1.02 continues to be a dominant line – this was the 2009 low and also a line of resistance when the pair reached parity. A break below 1.02 will send the pair towards minor support at 1.01 (a line that was added on last week’s outlook).

Below 1.01 comes the ultimate support line – parity. USD/CAD parity was last seen in April but didn’t hold for too long. Lower, 0.98 is a minor line of support, followed by 0.97. A bigger surge in oil prices is necessary for the pair to approach these areas.

Looking up, the immediate resistance line is at 1.0560, which served as a line of support and resistance in recent weeks. Higher, 1.0750 was the high line of long time range, and was also tested about a month ago. It’s followed by 1.0850, which was a swing high before the pair went lower.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

As the fear factor leaves the markets, the Canadian dollar, with a growing economy, receives the strength it deserves. Next stop – parity.

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Technical Analysis for Beginners. Dow Theory

In general, technical analysis can be defined as a method of price prediction based on mathematical calculations instead of economic reports. This method has been created for applicable needs in getting profit on stock and currency market. Initially technical analysis was divided into several techniques and only in the 70-ths all these methods were united into an integral approach with common psychology, axioms and ruling principles.

Technical analysis is a way to forecast probable price movement with the help of market movement charts reflecting the history of fluctuations. Practical usage of technical analysis determines several axioms.

Axiom 1

Every price formation factor, - economical, political, psychological has been taken into account and reflected on the chart. Once news is issued, market prices will move to reflect this new information.

Axiom 2

Price movement has got its direction. This suggestion has become a basis in all the techniques of technical analysis. The main purpose of technical analysis is defining of probable rate movement (trends in other words) and to apply acquired knowledge in trading. The definition given by Dow says that during bullish trend each consequent peak and fall is higher than the previous one. This suggestion is the main fundamental principle of technical analysis. Trends are classified into three types: bullish (upside movement), bearish (downside movement) and sideway trading (the price remains practically unchanged). Each of the given types is rarely encountered in its pure form, as straight price actions occur not very often in the market.

A certain trend is seen until some signs delivering opposite direction appear. According to Dow, trends exist in spite of market noise. However, in real practice it is not easy to determine whether a reversal is a starting point for a new trend or just a temporary movement. Contemporary technical tools permit traders to define it with easy, however, different traders interpret trend signals differently.

Axiom 3

Analysts predict if a certain rule worked in the past, this rule may be applicable in future as the price is formed mostly due to human psychology. These are the main fundamental ideas of technical analysis:

Rate takes everything into account, therefore, everything needed to master this field is to study price charts. The aim is to find out trends at their initial phases, to recognize a trend and to use the knowledge in further development making right decisions. And the last idea is that if something worked in the past, it will probably work in future.

The Dow theory denotes the "main movement", the "medium swing" and the "short swing". The "main movement" is a prevailing component as it may last for several years. The "medium swing" is a correction to the main movement and should last from ten days to three months. The "short swing" or minor movement fluctuations may last up to three weeks.

According to the theory market moving averages must confirm each other and every thend should be confirmed by volume. Dow assumed that volume confirmed every price trend.

Many modern technical analysts treat Dow Theory's definition of a trend as the main basics of contemporary technical analysis.

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FOREX Fundamental Analysis Defination with Description.

Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.

Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.

Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.

Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.

There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.

There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.

Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.

Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.

International Trade - If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.

The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.

In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.

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Forex Charts - Make Bigger Profits by Following These Key Points

Forex charts are a great, time efficient and proven way to make bigger profits but most traders don't use them correctly and here we will give you some key points to help you make bigger profits...

Let's look at some key points for more profitable technical analysis with forex charts.

If you look at any forex chart you will see big trends that can last for many months and trend following these can be very profitable and if you want to make money out of them you must understand this key fact:

Most big trends start and continue from breakouts to new highs and lows on the chart and you must go with these breaks - most traders don't. They want to wait for the pullback and of course it never comes and they are left behind. While it appears like you have missed the first part of the move, the odds of continuation are high so go with them.

Always be patient when using forex charts. You don't get rewarded for your efforts or how many times you trade but being right with your trading signal. I know traders who trade just a few times a month yet make triple digit gains - so wait for the right opportunities.

When you have a trend you want to hit always check price momentum is on your side and make sure that you use momentum indicators that show price acceleration in the direction you wish to trade. Two great ones, you can learn, in about 30 minutes are - the stochastic and RSI. These two combined will increase your odds of success by getting the odds more on your side.

Never believe anyone who tells you there is a mathematical formula for market movement - there isn't. If of course there was, we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market. So forget trying to predict and only trade the reality of price.

Its probabilities that you need to understand and like a successful poker player, you won't win every hand - but if you keep trading the odds, you will win long term. When using forex charts, the simpler your forex trading method the better, as simple systems tend to be very robust and have fewer elements to break, than complicated ones.

I have used a simple breakout method which uses trend lines, RSI and the stochastic and made money with it for over 20 years sure, it's simple but it works. Forex charts give you the reality of price before your eyes and you can spot areas of over valuation and under valuation. Humans create trends and they also (due to their emotions) push trends to far up or down in either direction.

You can of course ride trends - but you will also see big price spikes and history tells you they don't last long and taking trades contrary to the majority can be very profitable. Charting is an art not a science and you need to practice your art. The successful captain of a ship uses charts to navigate safely, but he also knows that use them wrongly and he will drown and it's a very similar situation in forex.

The Good News

You can learn forex charting in around 2 weeks and soon be piling up big profits in around 30 minutes a day spotting and hitting high odds trades and enjoying great profits. The good news is forex trading and using technical analysis is a learned skill and one you can master with a little practice.

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Money Management Strategy in Forex or Stock

This article deals with one of the most important aspects of trading - money management.

Although there are plenty of trading systems and trading strategies with good win/loss ratio, proper money management can change the outcome of the net profit amount for any trading system.

Essentially, money management strategy is a statistical tool to control the risk exposure and profit potential when we enter into a trade; and by applying it, we can control our emotions and lack of plan (the main reason why most of traders lose their money).



The importance of determine a stop-loss

C.O.N.T.R.O.L... When a trader lose control the results are often disastrous. Many traders often enter the market with a profit target, but without a clearly defined protective stop-loss.

With a pre-determined profit target and a pre-determined stop-loss, you know where you will get out if you are wrong and where you will get out if you are right. In other words, you have control.

Diversification - Trade more then one currency pair

When trading more then one currency pair, i.e. EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, GBP/USD atc., each pair would have a different stop-loss and profit target. With multiple currency pairs, each having a different entry and exit points you can smooth your system equity curve so your account draw-downs will be smaller.

Note: It's important that you diversify your orders between currencies that have low correlation.

Case study - Fixed Ratio With Fixed Number of Trades

Money management is the most significant part of any trading system. Our Forex money management strategy is simple to implement, conservative and practical when combined with one of our trading tutorials strategies.

First of all, you should understand the following terms:

Fixed Risk Ratio
Never risk more than 2% of your account size on any single currency pair, if possible, risk less. Plus, never risk more than 10% in any complex of open positions, on any given day. For any given trade you must know how much you will lose if the market goes against you.

Example - According to our money management strategy, you should be risking no more then 2% of you balance per single trade. So, if you start with $1,000 account size you may lose up to $20 in one trade, i.e. If the trade is stopped, you will lose $20 which is 2% of your initial balance.

Please note: You can open up to 5 parallel trades (other pairs), at the same time - max risk = 10% from your initial balance.

Fixed Number of Trades
The "fixed number of trades" parameter derives from the trading system profitable factor, as follows:

Trading System Percent Profitable (no. of winning trades / total no. of trades)	fixed Number of Trades
60%	40
65%	35
70%	30
75%	25
80%	20
85%	15

Forex money management strategy implementation

Now that we have these two parameters (the fixed risk ratio and the fixed number of trades), let's make an example:

• Account size = $2,500


• Fixed Risk Ratio = 2%


• Fixed Number of Trades = 30 (we use trading system with 70% winning trades expectation - see table above).

In this case we can lose up to $50 ($2,500 * 2%) at any given trade for the next 30 actual trades. Then, after 30 trades we will re-calculate our maximum risk amount, i.e., if the new account size is now $3,000, we can afford to lose up to $60 at any given trade for the following 30 trades, and so on.

Basically, we re-calculate the risk amount (based on the fixed risk ratio and account balance) after each fixed number of trades, in this example, 30.

Note: You can adapt this money management strategy to fit smaller or bigger trading accounts, providing you stick to the 2% risk rule.

Stock Trend Lines.

Technical analysis is built on the assumption that prices trend. Trend Lines are an important tool in technical analysis for both trend identification and confirmation. A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points and then extends into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. Many of the principles applicable to support and resistance levels can be applied to trend lines as well. It is important that you understand all of the concepts presented in our Support and Resistance article before you continue.



UPTREND LINES

An uptrend line has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two or more low points. The second low must be higher than the first for the line to have a positive slope. Uptrend linesact as support and indicate that net-demand (demand less supply) is increasing even as the price rises. A rising price combined with increasing demand is very bullish, and shows a strong determination on the part of the buyers. As long as prices remain above the trend line, the uptrend is considered solid and intact. A break below the uptrend line indicates that net-demand has weakened and a change in trend could be imminent.



DOWNTREND LINES

A downtrend line has a negative slope and is formed by connecting two or more high points. The second high must be lower than the first for the line to have a negative slope. Downtrendlines act as resistance, and indicate that net-supply (supply less demand) is increasing even as the price declines. A declining price combined with increasing supply is very bearish, and shows the strong resolve of the sellers. As long as prices remain below the downtrend line, the downtrend is solid and intact. A break above the downtrend line indicates that net-supply is decreasing and that a change of trend could be imminent.

For a detailed explanation of trend changes, which are different than just trend line breaks, please see our article on the Dow Theory.

Scale Setting

High points and low points appear to line up better for trend lines when prices are displayed using a semi-log scale. This is especially true when long-term trend lines are being drawn or when there is a large change in price. Most charting programs allow users to set the scale as arithmetic or semi-log. An arithmetic scale displays incremental values (5,10,15,20,25,30) evenly as they move up the y-axis. A $10 movement in price will look the same from $10 to $20 or from $100 to $110. A semi-log scale displays incremental values in percentage terms as they move up the y-axis. A move from $10 to $20 is a 100% gain, and would appear to be a much larger than a move from $100 to $110, which is only a 10% gain.



In the case of EMC, there was a large price change over a long period of time. While there were not any false breaks below the uptrend line on the arithmetic scale, the rate of ascent appears smoother on the semi-log scale. EMC doubled three times in less than two years. On the semi-log scale, the trend line fits all the way up. On the arithmetic scale, three differenttrend lines were required to keep pace with the advance.



In the case of Amazon.com (AMZN), there were two false breaks above the downtrend line as the stock declined during 2000 and 2001. These false break outs could have led to premature buying as the stock continued to decline after each one. The stock lost 60% of its value three times over a two year period. The semi-log scale reflects the percentage loss evenly, and the downtrend line was never broken.

VALIDATION

It takes two or more points to draw a trend line The more points used to draw the trend line, the more validity attached to the support or resistance level represented by the trend line. It can sometimes be difficult to find more than 2 points from which to construct a trend line Even though trend lines are an important aspect of technical analysis, it is not always possible to draw trend lines on every price chart. Sometimes the lows or highs just don't match up, and it is best not to force the issue. The general rule in technical analysis is that it takes two points to draw a trend line and the third point confirms the validity.



The chart of Microsoft (MSFT) shows an uptrend line that has been touched 4 times. After the third touch in Nov-99, the trend line was considered a valid line of support. Now that the stock has bounced off of this level a fourth time, the soundness of the support level is enhanced even more. As long as the stock remains above the trend line (support), the trend will remain in control of the bulls. A break below would signal that net-supply was increasing and that a change in trend could be imminent.

SPACING OF POINTS

The lows used to form an uptrend line and the highs used to form a downtrend line should not be too far apart, or too close together. The most suitable distance apart will depend on the time frame, the degree of price movement, and personal preferences. If the lows (highs) are too close together, the validity of the reaction low (high) may be in question. If the lows are too far apart, the relationship between the two points could be suspect. An ideal trend line is made up of relatively evenly spaced lows (or highs). The trend line in the above MSFT example represents well-spaced low points.



On the Wal-Mart (WMT) example, the second high point appears to be too close to the first high point for a valid trend line; however, it would be feasible to draw a trend line beginning at point 2 and extending down to the February reaction high.

ANGLES

As the steepness of a trend line increases, the validity of the support or resistance level decreases. A steep trend line results from a sharp advance (or decline) over a brief period of time. The angle of a trend line created from such sharp moves is unlikely to offer a meaningful support or resistance level. Even if the trend line is formed with three seemingly valid points, attempting to play a trend line break or to use the support and resistance level established it will often prove difficult.



The trend line for Yahoo! (YHOO) was touched four times over a 5-month period. The spacing between the points appears OK, but the steepness of the trend line is unsustainable, and the price is more likely than not to drop below the trend line. However, trying to time this drop or make a play after the trend line is broken is a difficult task. The amount of data displayed and the size of the chart can also affect the angle of a trend line. Short and wide charts are less likely to have steep trend lines than long and narrow charts. Keep that in mind when assessing the validity and sustainability of a trend line.

Forex V/S Stock Market...

Forex versus Stocks

Forex versus Stocks Advantages
Advantage	Forex	Stocks
24-hour Trading	YES	NO
Commission Free Trading	YES	NO
Instant Execution of Market Orders	YES	NO
Short-Selling without an Uptick	YES	NO

24-Hour Market

The Forex market is a seamless 24-hour market. Most brokers are open from Sunday at 2PM EST until Friday at 4 PM EST with customer service available 24/7. With the ability to trade during the U.S., Asian, and European market hours, you can customize your own trading schedule.

Commission Free Trading

Most Forex brokers charge no commission or additional transactions fees to trade currencies online or over the phone. Combined with the tight, consistent, and fully transparent spread, Forex trading costs are lower than those of any other market. The brokers are compensated for theirs services through the bid/ask prices.

Instantaneous Execution of Market Orders

Your trades are instantly executed under normal market conditions. You also have price certainty on every market order under normal market conditions. What you click is the price you get. You’re able to execute directly off real-time streaming prices (Yeeeaah!). There's no discrepancy between the displayed price shown on the platform and the execution price to enter your trade. Keep in mind that most brokers only guarantee stop, limit, and entry orders are only guaranteed under normal market conditions. Fills are instantaneous most of the time, but under extraordinarily volatile market conditions order execution may experience delays.

Short-Selling without an Uptick

Unlike the equity market, there is no restriction on short selling in the currency market. Trading opportunities exist in the currency market regardless of whether a trader is long or short, or which way the market is moving. Since currency trading always involves buying one currency and selling another, there is no structural bias to the market. So you always have equal access to trade in a rising or falling market.

More Reasons to Like Forex

No Middlemen

Centralized exchanges provide many advantages to the trader. However, one of the problems with any centralized exchange is the involvement of middlemen. Any party located in between the trader and the buyer or seller of the security or instrument traded will cost them money. The cost can be either in time or in fees. Spot currency trading does away with the middlemen and allows clients to interact directly with the market-maker responsible for the pricing on a particular currency pair. Forex traders get quicker access and cheaper costs.

Buy/Sell programs do not control the market

How many times have you heard that "fund A" was selling "X" or buying "Z"? Rumor had it that the funds were taking profits because of the end of the financial year or because today is "triple witching day", all as an explanation of why this stock is up or the market in general is down or positive on the session. The stock market is very susceptible to large fund buying and selling.

In spot trading, the liquidity of the Forex market makes the likelihood of any one fund or bank to control a particular currency very slim. Banks, hedge funds, governments, retail currency conversion houses and large net-worth individuals are just some of the participants in the spot currency markets where the liquidity is unprecedented.

Analysts and brokerage firms are less likely to influence the market

Have you watched TV lately? Heard about a certain Internet stock and an analyst of a prestigious brokerage firm accused of keeping its recommendations, such as "buy" when the stock was rapidly declining? It is the nature of these relationships. No matter what the government does to step in and discourage this type of activity, we have not heard the last of it.

IPO's are big business for both the companies going public and the brokerage houses. Relationships are mutually beneficial and analysts work for the brokerage houses that need the companies as clients. That catch-22 will never disappear.

Foreign exchange, as the prime market, generates billions in revenue for the world's banks and is a necessity of the global markets. Analysts in foreign exchange don't drive the deal flow, they just analyze the forex market.

8,000 stocks versus 4 major currency pairs

There are approximately 4,500 stocks listed on the New York Stock exchange. Another 3,500 are listed on the NASDAQ. Which one will you trade? Got the time to stay on top of so many companies? In spot currency trading, there are dozens of currencies traded, but the majority of the market trades the 4 major pairs.  Aren’t four pairs much easier to keep an eye on than thousands of stocks?  I’d say so.

Advantages of the Forex Market...

What are the advantages of the Forex Market over other types of investments?

When thinking about various investments, there is one investment vehicle that comes to mind. The Forex or Foreign Currency Market has many advantages over other types of investments. The Forex market is open 24 hrs a day, unlike the regular stock markets. Most investments require a substantial amount of capital before you can take advantage of an investment opportunity. To trade Forex, you only need a small amount of capital. Anyone can enter the market with as little as $300 USD to trade a "mini account", which allows you to trade lots of 10,000 units. One lot of 10,000 units of currency is equal to 1 contract. Each "pip" or move up or down in the currency pair is worth a $1 gain or loss, depending on which side of the market you are on. A standard account gives you control over 100,000 units of currency and a pip is worth $10.

The Forex market is also very liquid. When trading Forex you have full control of your capital.

Many other types of investments require holding your money up for long periods of time. This is a disadvantage because if you need to use the capital it can be difficult to access to it without taking a huge loss. Also, with a small amount of money, you can control

Forex traders can be profitable in bullish or bearish market conditions. Stock market traders need stock prices to rise in order to take a profit. Forex traders can make a profit during up trends and downtrends. Forex Trading can be risky, but with having the ability to have a good system to follow, good money management skills, and possessing self discipline, Forex trading can be a relatively low risk investment.

The Forex market can be traded anytime, anywhere. As long as you have access to a computer, you have the ability to trade the Forex market. An important thing to remember is before jumping into trading currencies, is it wise to practice with "paper money", or "fake money." Most brokers have demo accounts where you can download their trading station and practice real time with fake money. While this is no guarantee of your performance with real money, practicing can give you a huge advantage to become better prepared when you trade with your real, hard earned money. There are also many Forex courses on the internet, just be careful when choosing which ones to purchase.